BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition

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1 BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Mark Finley 14th February 216 Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

2 Economic backdrop Trillion, $21 25 Other 2 India Africa 15 China 1 OECD 5 OECD GDP 2 Contribution to GDP growth Trillion, $ Other India Africa China OECD Population Productivity

3 Global energy demand Consumption by region Billion toe 18 Other 15 Other Asia 12 China Other OECD Industry Transport Consumption growth by region 1 year average, % per annum 12% Other Asia 1% China 8% World 6% OECD 4% 2% % -2%

4 What drives energy demand? 4

5 Global GDP and energy World GDP and energy demand Index (1965=1) 12 1 GDP Primary energy Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $21 GDP China US World EU India Africa

6 Slower global GDP growth Annual growth rates Historical growth rates % per annum 5% 4% 3% GDP Primary energy Base case % per annum, 2-year moving average 5% 4% GDP 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% Primary energy % China World China World %

7 Energy intensity and energy demand Decline in world energy intensity World energy demand % per annum % Base case Flat demand -1% -2% -3% -4% Fastest 2-year average Billion toe Base case Flat demand

8 Q: What drives energy demand? A: Global economic growth 8

9 Fuel mix 5% 4% 3% 2% Shares of primary energy Oil Coal Gas Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum 25 2 Renew.* Hydro 15 Nuclear 1 Coal 1% Hydro 5 Gas % Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels Oil 9

10 Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels 1

11 US tight oil and shale gas Mb/d 8 US tight oil forecasts Bcf/d 9 US shale gas forecasts Forecast year:

12 Global tight oil and shale gas Mb/d Tight oil Ten year supply increments: Bcf/d Shale gas S & C America Middle East Europe & Eurasia Africa Asia Pacific North America 12

13 Market shares of tight oil and shale gas Shares of total oil/gas production 4% 3% Shale gas Tight oil 2% 1% %

14 Market shares of tight oil and shale gas Shares of total oil/gas production 4% 3% Shale gas Tight oil Stronger shale case 2% 1% Stronger shale case %

15 Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels 15

16 China s changing energy needs GDP and primary energy growth Shares of primary energy % per annum 1% 8% GDP Primary energy 8% Coal 6% 4% 4% Oil Non-fossils 2% % Gas %

17 Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels 17

18 Renewables and other non-fossil fuels Mtoe 15 Renewables in power forecasts 1 5 Forecast year:

19 Renewables and other non-fossil fuels Mtoe 15 1 Renewables in power forecasts 5 Forecast year: Mtoe Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 211 Outlook Renewables Biofuels Total Hydro Nuclear

20 Oil demand and supply Demand Supply Mb/d Other Mid East Other Asia India China 235 level Other Brazil US OECD decline Non-OECD growth 214 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth 2

21 Oil demand Mb/d Liquids fuel demand by sector Transport Industry Other Power Billion vehicles Non-OECD OECD Vehicle fleet

22 Natural gas Gas production by type and region Shares of global gas consumption Bcf/d Non-OECD shale OECD shale Non-OECD other OECD other 4% 3% Total trade 25 2% Pipeline 125 1% LNG %

23 Changing outlook for carbon emissions 23

24 Carbon emissions % per annum 4% 3% 2% GDP Decline in energy intensity Decline in carbon intensity 1% % CO 2

25 Outlook for carbon emissions 4 3 Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO 2 Base case Faster transition IEA

26 Outlook for carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO Carbon emissions Base case Faster transition IEA % Carbon intensity % per annum % % -2% -3% Changes in intensity Energy intensity -1% Base case -2% IEA 45-3% 26

27 Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO 2 Base case Faster transition IEA 45 % % -1% Carbon intensity % per annum -2% Changes in intensity Energy intensity -1% Base case -2% Faster transition -3% % IEA 45 27

28 Impact of faster transition case Billion toe Coal Oil 1 Hydro & Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels Consumption by fuel Gas Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum Base case Faster transition Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Total CO2

29 Conclusions Global demand for energy continues to rise to power increased levels of activity as the world economy continues to grow Fuel mix changes significantly coal losing, renewables gaining, and oil and gas combined holding steady Growth rate of carbon emissions slows sharply but further policy changes are needed 29

30 BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

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