BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition
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1 BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Spencer Dale, group chief economist Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
2 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. BP disclaims any obligation to update this presentation. Neither BP p.l.c. nor any of its subsidiaries (nor their respective officers, employees and agents) accept liability for any inaccuracies or omissions or for any direct, indirect, special, consequential or other losses or damages of whatsoever kind in connection to this presentation or any information contained in it. Unless noted otherwise, data definitions are based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, OECD and historical energy data up to 214 are consistent with the 215 edition of the Review. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in terms of real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) at 21 prices. 2
3 Economic backdrop Trillion, $21 25 Other 2 India Africa 15 China 1 OECD 5 OECD GDP 3 Contribution to GDP growth Trillion, $ Other India Africa China OECD Population Productivity
4 Global energy demand Consumption by region Billion toe 18 Other 15 Other Asia 12 China Other OECD Industry Transport Consumption growth by region 1 year average, % per annum 12% Other Asia 1% China 8% World 6% OECD 4% 2% % -2%
5 What drives energy demand? 5
6 Global GDP and energy World GDP and energy demand Index (1965=1) 12 1 GDP Primary energy Energy intensity by region Toe per thousand $21 GDP China US World EU India Africa
7 Slower global GDP growth Annual growth rates Historical growth rates % per annum 5% 4% 3% GDP Primary energy Base case % per annum, 2-year moving average 5% 4% GDP 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% Primary energy % China World China World %
8 Energy intensity and energy demand Decline in world energy intensity World energy demand % per annum % Base case Flat demand -1% -2% -3% -4% Fastest 2-year average Billion toe Base case Flat demand
9 Q: What drives energy demand? A: Global economic growth 9
10 Fuel mix 5% 4% 3% 2% Shares of primary energy Oil Coal Gas Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum 25 2 Renew.* Hydro 15 Nuclear 1 Coal 1% Hydro 5 Gas % Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels Oil 1
11 Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels 11
12 US tight oil and shale gas Mb/d 8 US tight oil forecasts Bcf/d 9 US shale gas forecasts Forecast year:
13 Global tight oil and shale gas Mb/d Tight oil Ten year supply increments: Bcf/d Shale gas S & C America Middle East Europe & Eurasia Africa Asia Pacific North America 13
14 Market shares of tight oil and shale gas Shares of total oil/gas production 4% 3% Shale gas Tight oil 2% 1% %
15 Market shares of tight oil and shale gas Shares of total oil/gas production 4% 3% Shale gas Tight oil Stronger shale case 2% 1% Stronger shale case %
16 Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels 16
17 China s changing energy needs GDP and primary energy growth Shares of primary energy % per annum 1% 8% GDP Primary energy 8% Coal 6% 4% 4% Oil Non-fossils 2% % Gas %
18 Key factors shaping the fuel mix What have we learned about US shale? China s changing energy needs Prospects for renewables and other non-fossil fuels 18
19 Renewables and other non-fossil fuels Mtoe 15 Renewables in power forecasts 1 5 Forecast year:
20 Renewables and other non-fossil fuels Mtoe 15 1 Renewables in power forecasts 5 Forecast year: Mtoe Revisions to non-fossil fuels vs 211 Outlook Renewables Biofuels Total Hydro Nuclear
21 Oil demand and supply Demand Supply Mb/d Other Mid East Other Asia India China 235 level Other Brazil US OECD decline Non-OECD growth 214 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth 21
22 Oil demand Mb/d Liquids fuel demand by sector Transport Industry Other Power Billion vehicles Non-OECD OECD Vehicle fleet
23 Natural gas Gas production by type and region Shares of global gas consumption Bcf/d Non-OECD shale OECD shale Non-OECD other OECD other 4% 3% Total trade 25 2% Pipeline 125 1% LNG %
24 Changing outlook for carbon emissions 24
25 Carbon emissions % per annum 4% 3% 2% GDP Decline in energy intensity Decline in carbon intensity 1% % CO 2
26 Outlook for carbon emissions 4 3 Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO 2 Base case Faster transition IEA
27 Outlook for carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO Carbon emissions Base case Faster transition IEA % Carbon intensity % per annum % % -2% -3% Changes in intensity Energy intensity -1% -2% Base case IEA 45-3% 27
28 Outlook for carbon emissions Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO 2 Base case Faster transition IEA 45 % % -1% Carbon intensity % per annum -2% Changes in intensity Energy intensity -1% -2% Base case Faster transition -3% % IEA 45 28
29 Impact of faster transition case Billion toe Coal Oil 1 Hydro & Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels Consumption by fuel Gas Annual demand growth by fuel Mtoe per annum Base case Faster transition Renew.* Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Total CO2
30 Conclusions Global demand for energy continues to rise to power increased levels of activity as the world economy continues to grow Fuel mix changes significantly coal losing, renewables gaining, and oil and gas combined holding steady Growth rate of carbon emissions slows sharply but further policy changes are needed 3
31 BP Energy Outlook 216 edition Outlook to 235 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats
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