17 th February 2015 BP Energy Outlook bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP p.l.c. 2015

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1 17 th February 215 BP bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

2 Economic backdrop GDP Trillion, $211 PPP 24 Other Non-OECD Asia 18 OECD Contribution to GDP growth Trillion $211 PPP, Population Income per person OECD Non-OECD Asia Other

3 Global energy demand Billion toe 18 Consumption by region % per annum 8% Non-OECD Asia energy growth Other Non-OECD Asia OECD 6% 4% 2% Slower GDP growth Faster decline in energy intensity %

4 Global energy demand by sector and fuel Consumption by sector Billion toe Other 6 3 Industry Transport Billion toe Consumption by fuel Gas Oil 3 Coal Renew.* Hydro Nuclear *Includes biofuels

5 Shares of primary energy 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels

6 Power sector Inputs to power as a share of total primary energy Primary inputs to power 5% 1% Oil 4% 75% Coal 3% 5% 25% Gas Nuclear Renew. 2% Hydro %

7 New sources of energy supply Production Billion toe 3 Renewables in power 2 Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels

8 New sources of energy supply Production Technically recoverable resources Billion toe 3 Renewables in power Billion toe Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Asia Pacific North America S & C America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Source: OECD/IEA 214 Tight oil Shale gas

9 New sources of energy supply Production Technically recoverable resources Billion toe 3 Renewables in power Billion toe Shale gas Tight oil, oil sands, biofuels Asia Pacific North America S & C America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Source: OECD/IEA 214 Tight oil Shale gas

10 Renewables in power generation 4% 3% 2% Renewables share of power EU US China Renewables growth 213 to 235 Thousand TWh %.3 % China EU US OECD Asia India

11 Oil and other liquid fuels

12 Global liquids demand Demand Supply Mb/d Other Mid East Other Asia India China 235 level 235 level North America Other Crude NGLs* OECD decline Non-OECD growth 213 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth

13 Global liquids demand and supply Demand Supply Mb/d Other Mid East Other Asia India China 235 level North America Other Crude NGLs OECD decline Non-OECD growth 213 Non-OPEC growth OPEC growth

14 Tight oil and OPEC balance Tight oil supply growth Share of global liquids growth Mb/d 6 12% Other US Russia S & C America China Canada & Mexico US % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Other NGLs Tight oil OPEC crude

15 Tight oil and OPEC balance Tight oil supply growth Share of global liquids growth Mb/d 6 12% Other US Russia S & C America China Canada & Mexico US % 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Other NGLs Tight oil OPEC crude

16 Oil trade Mb/d 75 Middle East FSU Europe Asia Pacific 5 Africa S&C America N America Regional imbalances Net exports Mb/d 2 China US India

17 Natural gas

18 Global supply and demand for natural gas Production by type and region Consumption by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other Transport Other Power Industry

19 Growth of LNG LNG supply Shares of global gas consumption Bcf/d Other Africa Australia US Russia Qatar 4% 3% 2% Total trade Pipeline 2 1% LNG %

20 Sources of gas supply to Europe Bcf/d 6 4 Net pipeline import Net LNG import 2 Domestic production

21 Key uncertainties Low GDP growth - what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed? Climate policies - what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions? Geopolitics - what are the implications of heightened geopolitical risks? China s electrification - what if China s electricity use follows a different path?

22 Low GDP growth what if growth in China and India slows more rapidly than assumed?

23 Low GDP growth alternative % Differences from base case in 235 GDP and energy demand Energy demand by fuel % -5% -2% -1% -15% -2% GDP Energy -4% -6% -8% -1% -25% World OECD Non-OECD Asia Other -12% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renew. & hydro

24 Climate policies what if policymakers take more actions to reduce emissions?

25 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions Index: 199 = GDP Energy CO₂

26 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions Index: 199 = GDP Energy CO₂

27 GDP, energy demand and carbon emissions Index: 199 = GDP Energy CO₂

28 Carbon emissions Billion tonnes CO Global emissions IEA 45 Scenario Options that achieve equal CO 2 emissions reductions* Abatement option Replace coal with gas in power (% of total power) Add CCS to coal power plants (% of total power) Change required 1%.7% Increase renewables power generation 11% Increase nuclear power generation 6% Improve vehicle efficiency 2% Improve other sector energy efficiency 1% Improve efficiency of power production 1% * Normalised for a 1% swing in the coal/gas mix in power generation, equivalent to 11 Mt CO 2. Estimates are based on energy shares in 213.

29 Carbon emissions: some possible options Billion tonnes CO Global emissions IEA 45 Scenario Options that achieve equal CO 2 emissions reductions Abatement option Replace coal with gas in power (% of total power) Add CCS to coal power plants (% of total power) Change required 1%.7% Increase renewables power generation 11% Increase nuclear power generation 6% Improve vehicle efficiency 2% Improve other sector energy efficiency 1% Improve efficiency of power production 1%

30 Conclusion Continuous change is the norm for energy markets Changing energy mix gas fastest growing fossil fuel, coal the slowest continued rapid growth in renewables Changing energy trade patterns increasingly flowing from West to East Changing the carbon emissions path? no silver bullet, need action on many fronts let the market pick the winners

31 17 th February 215 BP bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats

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