Global challenges Regional perspectives Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann Executive Member of the Managing Board Steel Institute VDEh

Transcription

1 5 th International Conference on Steels in Cars and Trucks Noordwijkerhoud, Amsterdam, NL Global challenges Regional perspectives Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann Executive Member of the Managing Board Steel Institute VDEh

2 12 years SCT a success story Bringing the automotive, supplier und steel industries together Future trends in steel development, processing technologies and applications SCT2005, 05 to 10 June, Wiesbaden, Germany SCT 2008, 01 to 05 June, Wiesbaden, Germany SCT 2011, 05 to 09 June, Salzburg, Austria SCT 2014, 15 to 19 June, Braunschweig, Germany SCT 2017, 18 to 22 June, Amsterdam Noordwijkerhoud, The Netherlands Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 2

3 Structure of steel demand: focus on automotive and machinery Sector shares in steel consumption in major countries (2016) Construction Automotive Mechanical Engineering Metalware Others China 57% 7% 18% 8% 10% USA 38% 24% 14% 16% 8% Japan 37% 29% 11% 8% 14% Korea 40% 25% 4% 5% 25% EU-28 40% 20% 16% 16% 8% Germany 31% 31% 16% 13% 10% Source: Worldsteel Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 3 Seite 3

4 Central challenges for German and European steel industry CO2-reduction in steelmaking process Steel demand in Europe only on modest level Economic strategy of new US administration Chines over capacities in steel Material development Steel Industry Unfair trade / Dumping Rising protectionism worldwide Ineffiziente National EU-Handelsschutz- European climate Instrumente and Mega trends (e.g. energy policy E-mobility) Digitization Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 4

5 Protectionism in the steel sector growing worldwide Examples for tariff and non-tariff trade restrictions USA: Buy American Import licenses Brazil: Argentinia: Import licenses EU: No import-duties on steel products strict compliance with the subsidy discipline Turkey: Strategy plan Egypt: Marokko: Source: OECD, WTO, Eurofer, EU-Kommission: DG Trade Saudi Arabia: Buy national Iran: Buy National Tunesia: Pakistan: India: national certifying duty Russia: Kazakhstan: Australia: Indonesia: national certifying duty China: VAT reduction for Exports Subventions Ban on direct foreign investments, -licenses Thailand: national productstandardization Taiwan: Import licenses Vietnam: Import licenses Malaysia: Import licenses Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 5

6 New US trade policy targeting steel industry January 24, 2017: Construction of American Pipes March 01, 2017: National Trade Policy Agenda 2017 March 31, 2017: Omnibus Report on Significant Trade Deficits April 18, 2017: Buy American, Hire American April 20, 2017: Standig up to Unfair Steel Trade Practices April 29, 2017: Addressing Trade Agreements Violations and Abuses Buy American preferential treatment of the US-steel industry for tubes and pipes; measures also affecting private investment projects Definition of key objectives of the national trade policy for 2017 Assessment of major causes of the US trade deficit with several of its major trading partners in 2016 Reinforcement of legislation for preferential treatment of US companies on allocation of government procurement; restriction of working visas for foreigners Section 232 investigation to determin the effects of steel imports on the US national security Review of all existing trade agreements on violations and abuse Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 6

7 Importance of German and EU28 steel exports to the US Germany: Export Rolled Steel (2016, Share in Percent) 2016*): 4,1 Mill. t in countries outside of the EU (Third Countries) EU-28: Export Rolled Steel (2016, Share in Percent) 2016: 24 Mill. t Europe (without EU/CIS) 4% 5% 18% 35% USA Asia (without N+M East) Africa 4% 12% 17% 33% 18% 20% North and Middle East Others 20% 14% *Jan-Nov annualized The USA are for the steel industry in Germany the most important market Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 7

8 Indirect export key for German steel demand Indirect Steel Exports (with Tubes) (Million Tonnes) 103% 37 UK USA France Netherlands Sweden Belgium Russia Denmark Norway Suisse Germany: Indirect Net-Steel Exports (Million Tonnes, Rolled Steel Weight) 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,7 0,7 0,6 0,6 1,2 1,8 2,1 Balance Saldo 2016: Mill. Mio. t t Anteil Share UK + USA: 40% Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 8

9 Use of materials in automobile construction today and in the future Audi drastically increasing steel usage in 2018 A8 model The 2018 Audi A8 will be made up of 40.5 % steel, a drastic change from the allaluminum body originally developed in 1994 Steel Business Briefing, Friday, 12 Mai Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 9

10 Lightweight construction concepts New or customized joining technologies are needed Quelle: Audi AG Source VW: >>Automobil Industrie<< Leichtbau-Gipfel 2012, Würzburg 2012 Successful co-operation of various materials Solution to meet the requirements of the construction Hybrid design: The right material in the right place. Reduced material consumption Resource conservation Weight savings CO 2 -avoidance Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 10

11 Steel in powerful drives for e-mobiles o o o Electrical sheets of steel belong to the key components of electric motors and determine essentially their efficiency. New steel alloys reduce the losses in the motor during the re-magnetization by up to 30% and thus increase the efficiency especially at high speeds. These non-grain-oriented electrical steels play a key role for full-electric vehicle drives Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 11

12 Modelling on different scales are used selectively Source: MPI for Iron Research Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 12

13 Steel multi recycling champion Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 13

14 High economic leverage due to networking with suppliers and service providers Steel Industry Automotive Metalware Mechanical Construction Other vehicles Non-ferrous Electrical Retail Health Source: RWI (2011, 2015); Multiplier-Effect of the Steel Industry (selected industries in Germany) 1,4 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,7 2,1 Average of selected industries: 1,76 3,1 The multiplier is a measure for the leverage of an industry. An additional 1 euro demand for steel products is accompanied by another demand of 3.1, of which 1 euro is allocates to the steel industry itself and 2.1 to other suppliers. The powerful leverage arises from long value chains in the German economic area (transport, industry-related services, etc.) Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 14

15 Thanks to all supporters The Sponsors Platinum Gold Silver The Exhibitors The Supporters Dr.-Ing. Peter Dahlmann: Global challenges regional perspectives 15