The EU and the International Cooperation on Climate Change

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1 Autumn Lecture Series 2008 The EU and the International Cooperation on Climate Change Sebastian Oberthür 1 01 October 2008 Content 1. Milestones of International Climate Policy 2. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 3. Kyoto Protocol 4. EU Leadership on International Climate Policy I 5. Towards a Copenhagen Agreement? 6. EU Leadership on International Climate Policy II 2 1

2 1. Milestones of Int l Climate Policy Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, established 1988) 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2001 Marrakech Accords (implementing provisions for Kyoto Protocol) 2005 entry into force of Kyoto Protocol (without the US and Australia) 2007 Bali Roadmap 3 2. UNFCCC (1) Objective (Art. 2): stabilization of GHG concentrations at level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (translates into global GHG emission reduction of at least 50% by 2050, more afterwards) Principles (Art. 3), in particular: CBDR+RC Comprehensive approach: all GHGs, all sources and sinks General commitments (reporting and review, plans, policies and measures, financing)...but no specific targets 4 2

3 2. UNFCCC (2) Categories of actors: Parties Developed/industrialized countries (Annex I) OECD (Annex II) Countries with economies in transition (EITs) Developing countries (non-annex I) Many sub-categories (esp. Art. 4.8, 4.9) Categories of actors: non-parties Secretariat IGOs (incl. IPCC, GEF) NGOs (environmental, business, research, etc.) 5 Institutional Structure Conference of the Parties (COP) (Art. 7) 2. UNFCCC (3) Subsidiary Bodies for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and for Implementation (SBI) (Art. 9 and 10) Secretariat (Art. 8) Financial Mechanism: Global Environment Facility (GEF) 6 3

4 2. UNFCCC (4) Assessment Weak commitments Objective and principles as basis for further elaboration Platform and institutional structure for future development Framework for creation of obligations Regime development possible through COP additional Protocol(s) Convention amendments 7 3. Kyoto Protocol: reduction targets - 5% for all industrialized countries - differentiated targets for individual countries Base year: 1990 (with flexibility for countries with economies in transition) Commitment period Basket of GHGs (CO2, methane, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) Accounting of sinks (reforestation, deforestation, forest management et al.) 8 4

5 3. KP: market mechanisms JI Projects that reduce emissions or increase sinks in other developed countries to gain emission credits (ERUs) Clean Development Mechanism Projects that reduce emissions or increase sinks in developing countries to gain emission credits (CERs) Support for sustainable development in developing countries Emissions Trading Selling and buying emissions (AAUs) between developed countries Enhance efficiency (do not reduce overall emissions) 9 The Kyoto Mechanisms 10 5

6 3. KP: further areas Reporting and Review Compliance Financial assistance Technology Transfer Adaptation Capacity Building Impact of response measures KP: institutional framework Based on the Convention: Secretariat, Subsidiary Bodies, Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties (COP/MOP), Financial Mechanism (GEF) Executive Board of the CDM JI Supervisory Committee Compliance Committee (Facilitative Branch, Enforcement Branch) Adaptation Fund Board 12 6

7 3. KP: assessment First step is done, but current reduction commitments are insufficient (global emission reduction of at least 50% by 2050 required + further reduction afterwards) Solid and flexible institutional structure to build on (including emissions trading, CDM, JI, reporting) - (currently) without credible alternative Increasing (functional and political) differentiation and complexity of governance system (different GHGs, sinks, reporting, market mechanisms, compliance, adaptation, etc.) EU leadership I (1) UNFCCC negotiations: Pushing for stabilization target for industrialized countries by 2000 Kyoto negotiations: Pushing for 15% emission reduction of industrialized countries by 2010 (7.5% by 2005) Kyoto Protocol: Strongest target (see table) Internal burden-sharing agreement (see table) But: little implementing measures (failed CO2/energy tax, voluntary agreements, ) Rhetorical leadership in the 1990s 14 7

8 4. EU leadership I: Kyoto targets Target -8% -7% -6% -5% Stabilisation +1% +8% +10% Party EC and 15 member states + BUL, CZE, EST, LAT, LIE, LTU, MON, ROM, SVK, SLO and SUI USA Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland Croatia New Zealand, Russian Federation, Ukraine Norway Australia Iceland EU leadership I: burden sharing Member state Austria Reduction by % Member state (continued) Italy Reduction by % Belgium -7.5% Luxembourg -28.0% Denmark -21.0% Netherlands -6.0% Finland 0.0% Portugal +27.0% France 0.0% Spain +15.0% Germany -21.0% Sweden +4.0% Greece +25.0% UK -12.5% Ireland +13.0% EU-Total -8.0% 16 8

9 4. EU leadership I (4) US exit + Marrakech Accords of 2001: defending environmental integrity (market mechanisms, compliance, sinks) + saving the Kyoto Protocol Ratification campaign (entry into force in 2005): convincing Russia Domestically: European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) of 2000, including emissions trading directive (see table) Addressing the credibility gap (but limited impact on emissions) EU leadership I: EU climate policies Year 1998/ / Until 2007 Total Policy Voluntary agreements with car manufacturers Landfill Directive Renewable Energy Directive Directive on Promotion of Bio-fuel Emissions Trading Directive Directive on Energy End Use Efficiency and Energy Services Other policies and measures All existing EU policies and measures Reduction Potential by 2012 (Mt CO2 eq) ca ca

10 4. EU leadership I (6) Challenges to the EU s international actorness : Mixed/shared competence Unity Representation Effective negotiation/diplomacy Responses: Role of EU Presidency (coordination and representation) EU Troika (representation) Evolution of internal coordination mechanisms (Council) Towards a Copenhagen Agreement? Two negotiating tracks: Kyoto Protocol (Article 3.9 and Article 9) UNFCCC ( Bali Roadmap ) Schedule: Poznan (December 2008) 4-5 negotiating sessions in 2009 Deadline for submission of text for legal instrument 6 months prior to Copenhagen Copenhagen (December 2009) 20 10

11 5. Towards a Copenhagen Agreement? Agenda of negotiations: Mitigation commitments of industrialized countries Mitigation action in (more advanced) developing countries Further development of market mechanisms ( global carbon markets ) Mechanisms for transfer of finances and technology Adaptation (including finance) Emissions from international transport (aviation and maritime transport) Avoid/minimize deforestation Impacts of response measures (etc.) Towards a Copenhagen Agreement? Many issues, many parties - a major challenge for coming to an agreement The international framework is not likely to get less complex

12 6. EU leadership II (1) Bali Roadmap and beyond: pushing for Copenhagen Agreement (post-2012) European Council: unilateral commitment to cut GHG emissions by 20% by increase share of renewables to 20% by 2020 (+ 20% energy efficiency improvement by 2020) Challenges to EU as an international actor: ensuring EU unity + effective climate diplomacy (outreach and strategy) EU leadership II (2) The climate/energy package (proposed by European Commission): ETS reform Effort sharing Renewables Directive Also: CO2 and cars, energy efficiency, aviation, maritime transport? Closing the credibility gap? 24 12

13 UK Sweden Spain Portugal Netherlands Luxembourg Italy Ireland Greece Germany France Finland Denmark Belgium Austria Source: EEA 25 EU-15 Lecture Series Programme 8 Oct. 15 Oct. 22 Oct. 29 Oct. 5 Nov. 12 Nov. 19 Nov. The EU, IPCC and the Science of Climate Change: The 2 degrees C Target EU Climate Policies: State and Perspectives Mitigating CO2 Emissions from Cars The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: Internal and External Dimensions The EU and Adaptation to Climate Change: Internal and External Dimensions The EU, Climate Change and the Promotion of Renewable Energy The Prospects for a New International Agreement on Climate Change 26 13

14 Lecture Series Programme (2) 26 Nov. 3 Dec. 10 Dec. 17 Dec. The EU as an Actor in International Climate Policy: External Competence, Internal Procedure and Actual Practice Transatlantic Politics of Climate Change The EU, Russia and Climate Change The EU and the Future of International Climate Protection KEYNOTE LECTURE: Jan The EU Climate/Energy Package: Internal and External Implications (see for exact date) 27 Principal sources Axelrod, Regina et al. (eds.) (2005) The Global Environment Bodansky, Daniel (1993), The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: A Commentary, Yale Journal of International Law 18, Chasek, Pamela (ed.) (2000) The Global Environment in the Twenty-First Century Grubb, Michael et al. (1999), The Kyoto Protocol. A Guide and Assessment, London. Kiss, Alxeandre & Shelton, Dinah (2006) International Environmental Law Oberthür, Sebastian & Ott, Hermann (1999) The Kyoto Protocol. International Climate Policy for the 21st Century Oberthür, Sebatian & Claire Roche Kelly (2008) EU Leadership on International Climate Policy: Achievements and Challenges, The International Spectator 43: 3, Peeters, M. and K. Deketelaere (eds) (2006), EU Climate Change Policy. The Challenge of New Regulatory Initiatives, Cheltenham. Yamin, Farhana & Depledge, Joanna (2004) The International Climate Change Regime 28 14

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