SWOLF Overview and Illustrative Analyses. Jim Levis, PhD Research Assistant Professor Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering

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1 SWOLF Overview and Illustrative Analyses Jim Levis, PhD Research Assistant Professor Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering S WOLF 1

2 Research background Life-cycle assessment is a framework for estimating the environmental emissions and impacts associated with a product, process, or system that has been used extensively to understand the environmental impacts of solid waste processes. Appropriate selection of waste processing technologies and efficient waste management strategies can minimize environmental impacts, particularly through energy generation and materials recovery. A progressive solid waste management strategy must account for complex interrelationships among unit processes and competing management objectives. Solid waste generation and composition is changing and must be considered in future decisions (e.g., paper waste decreasing, food waste increasing). Climate change mitigation policies and energy infrastructure will affect 2 the optimal management of solid waste in the future.

3 Research objective Develop a tool and evaluate solid waste system performance (i.e., economical, environmental) while accounting for changes to waste composition and generation, SWM policy, the U.S. energy system, and potential future GHG mitigation policies. GHG Policy LCA Model Impact Assessment Model (e.g., Global Warming, Smog Formation) Solid Waste Optimization Lifecycle Framework (SWOLF) Energy System SWM Process Models Optimizable Integrated SWM System Model Cost Emissions Energy Use Impacts SWM Policy Waste Generation and 3 Composition

4 Benefits of optimization modeling How can net present cost be minimized over time? While meeting diversion or greenhouse gas constraints Considering existing infrastructure and changes to waste composition/generation and the energy system How can environmental benefits be maximized? Minimize greenhouse gas emissions Minimize fossil energy use Maximize landfill diversion Impose budget constraints What are the mitigation costs ($/MTCO 2 e avoided) or tradeoffs associated with adopting a specific technology or policy? WTE combustion, composting, AD, gasification-tobiofuels, etc. Landfill organics bans, diversion targets, combustion 4

5 System boundaries Basis of calculations is the total generated mass of municipal solid waste (MSW) over the decision horizon (30 years here) Gross Emissions Electricity, fuel, and raw material extraction and processing LCA System Boundary Electricity Fuel Raw Materials MSW SWM System Remanufacturing Comingled Single Recyclable Stream Collection MRF Ash WTE Landfill Mixed Waste/ Mixed Residual Waste Collection MRF Generated Electricity Compost Electricity Generation Soil Amendments Avoided Emissions Avoided Emissions Organics Collection Anaerobic Digestion Soil Amendment Composting Landfill Recyclables Remanufacturing Avoided Emissions Gross Emissions 5

6 SWM system Existing system Single stream MRF with 12,000 Mg/yr capacity and 20 years of remaining life Composting with 6000 Mg/yr capacity and 20 years of remaining life Existing landfill has enough capacity to accept all generated waste over the decision horizon 6

7 Percent of Generated Mass Generated Mass (1000 Mg) Waste Generation and Composition Mass based on city of 100,000 with annual population growth of 4% Model considers 30 waste materials Waste composition and trends developed from EPA 2012 MSW Facts and Figures 1 System changes and decisions made in 5 year increments Population Waste generation and composition SWM policy Energy system Greenhouse gas policy 1 Municipal solid waste generation, recycling, and disposal in the United States: Tables and figures 2010; United State Environmental Protection Agency: Washington, DC, Metals Glass Plastic Misc Yard Waste Food Waste Paper/Fiber 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

8 Illustrative SWM analysis Analyze how SWM strategies are affected by future changes to waste generation, composition, and the energy system Energy system projections were based on the U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook (2012) reference scenario 1 Additional work has considered different energy scenarios under different policies such as renewable portfolio standards and capand-trade systems Cases Business-as-usual (BAU): Min Cost Max Diversion Min GHG Description Minimize cost, no new facilities, compost yard waste, recycle in a single stream MRF Minimize net present cost Maximize 30-year cumulative landfill diversion (minimize landfilled waste) Minimize 30-year cumulative GHG emissions 1. Annual energy outlook 2012 with projections to 2035; DOE/EIA-0383(2012); United States Energy Information Administration: Washington, DC,

9 Base results BAU Min. Cost Max. Diversion Min. GHG Cost (Million $) GHG (10,000 MTCO2e) Diversion (%) -79 Negative GHG emissions are due to electricity generation offsets (AD, landfill, WTE), material recovery offsets, and carbon storage (AD, composting, landfill) Min Cost reduces cost and GHG emission compared to the BAU case by eliminating yard waste composting Min GHG case reduces cost and GHG emissions compared to the Max Diversion case by eliminating WTE combustion and more selective recycling and landfilling 9

10 Min cost scenario results Recyclables are recovered in a single stream MRF and residual waste is landfilled in each stage Amount of recycling is reduced from 2010 to 2035 mostly due to the decrease in paper, metals and glass generation Collection and transportation are largest sources of GHG emissions in each stage 10

11 Remanufacturing Comingled Recyclable Collection Single Stream MRF Mixed Waste/ Residual Collection Min cost scenario results Landfill 11 Mixed Waste Recyclables Combustibles Organics Ash

12 Max diversion scenario results Recyclables are separated in a single stream MRF, residual waste is sent to a mixed waste MRF. Yard wastes are composted in the first 2 stages, while AD is utilized for food and yard waste treatment from 2020 onwards. Residuals from MRFs and organics treatment (composting and AD) are combusted in a WTE facility, and the ferrous, aluminum, and bottom ash are recovered, while the fly ash is landfilled WTE changes from a net sink of GHG emissions in 2010 to a source as paper is replaced with plastic and electricity GHG intensity is reduced 12

13 Max diversion scenario results

14 Min GHG scenario results The WTE facility is used only in the first stage because there is more paper and less plastic than in the following stages and because of the decrease in electricity GHG intensity AD use over time increases as more food waste is generated Recycling GHG emissions are lower than in Max Diversion case because only materials that lead to a net savings in GHG emissions are recycled 14

15 Min GHG scenario results

16 Diversion (%) Cost-GHG trade-off GHG Emissions (MTCO2e) Diversion % increase in cost. GHG Percent Cost Increase above Min Cost Scenario The GHG points represent the minimum GHG emissions that can be generated at the specified cost The Diversion points represent the % diversion associated with the system achieving the minimum GHG emissions at that specified 16 cost

17 GHG Emissions (1000 MTCO 2 e yr -1 ) Throughput (1000 Mg yr -1 ) 10% cost increase results Collection Transporation Composting MWMRF Landfill SSMRF ReMfg Non-zero Min Cost throughputs Minimized GHG emissions with a cost 10% greater than the Min Cost case Reduced GHG emissions by an additional ,000 MTCO 2 e over the Min Cost case

18 Illustrative case study - Discussion The first technology implemented to reduce GHG emissions is a single stream MRF, implemented in every scenario, Earns net revenue Reduces GHG emissions Increases diversion The materials recovered vary based on the objective In the Max Diversion and Min GHG cases, AD, composting, recycling, WTE, and landfill throughputs change in stages as waste composition and generation change. Min Cost case also adjusted recycling/landfilling based on composition and generation Requires the use of a multi-stage framework 18

19 Illustrative case study - Discussion The Min Cost case was able to reduce GHG emissions while saving money over the Business as Usual scenario by eliminating yard waste composting Changing composition and changes to the energy system can affect technology choice Combustion minimized cost early with higher paper and lower plastic in waste, but was discontinued in later stages. Requires the use of a multi-stage framework Results show that GHG emissions may increase with increased diversion (e.g., composting branches, recycling 19 office paper or magazines)

20 References Levis, J. W., Barlaz, M. A., DeCarolis, J. F., & Ranjithan, S. R. (2013). A generalized multistage optimization modeling framework for life cycle assessment-based integrated solid waste management. Environmental Modelling & Software, 50, doi: /j.envsoft Levis, J. W., Barlaz, M. a, Decarolis, J. F., & Ranjithan, S. R. (2014). Systematic exploration of efficient strategies to manage solid waste in U.S. municipalities: perspectives from the solid waste optimization life-cycle framework (SWOLF). Environmental Science & Technology, 48(7), doi: /es500052h 20

21 Acknowledgments 21

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