Global Status of Photovoltaic Solar Energy

Transcription

1 Global Status of Photovoltaic Solar Energy ECREEE Regional Forum on the ECOWAS Solar Energy Initiative Dakar, 19 th October 2010 Arnulf Jäger-Waldau Thomas Huld Heinz Ossenbrink Irene Pinedo Pascua European Commission, DG JRC, Ispra Institute for Energy Renewable Energy Unit

2 Overview PV Status Report 2010: - Current status. - Near future Outlook to Just a few minutes Photovoltaic Geographic Information System, PVGIS AFRETEP project

3 PV produced Annual PV Production [MW] Rest of World United States Taiwan PR China Europe Japan Range of estimates Data source: PV News, Photon International, Navigant Consulting, i-suppli and own analysis

4 PV installed Annual Photovoltaic Installations [MWp] Spain Rest of Europe United States Rest of World Germany Japan 2010 estimates Data source: PV News, Photon International, Navigant Consulting, i-suppli and own analysis

5 PV cumulative installed Cumulative Photovoltaic Installations [MWp] 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Spain Rest of Europe United States Rest of World Germany Japan 2010 estimates Data source: PV News, Photon International, Navigant Consulting, i-suppli and own analysis

6 PV International Trade 2009 PV Production Champion: China, 4.4 GW Europe PV Installation Champion: Europe, 5.8 GW (16 GW cumulative) Asia: 75% of World PV production Europe: 78% of Worlds (grid-connected) Installation 2009 Installed [MWp] USA RoW Japan Taiwan China Produced [MWp]

7 Announced Capacity Increases 70,000 Annual Production/Production Capacity [MW] 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Japan China USA India Europe Taiwan South Korea ROW 0 Estimated Production 2009 Planned Capacity 2009 Planned Capacity 2010 Planned Capacity 2012 Planned Capacity 2015

8 Announced Capacity Increases Production Capacity [MW/year] Crystalline Wafer Silicon Thin Films

9 PV module price Historical price experience curve: Doubling of cumulative sold volume reduces price by 22% Polysilicon shortage Source: SET for 2020, EPIA 2009 SOLAR EUROPE INDUSTRY INITIATIVE Setting The Pace Of The Solar Age

10 Photovoltaic Electricity Prices in 2020? Consumer Price [ /kwh] 0.40 Household Price %annual increase average PV electricity price IT CY MT PT DE ES FR GR 0.40 PV-Electricity Price [ /kwh] Assumptions: 2 /kwp; 4% Interest; 0.5%/yr O&M; 30 yr operational life Source: EC Joint Research Centre, PVGIS

11 PV Scenarios 2010 [GW] 2020 [GW] 2030 [GW] 2050 [GW] Greenpeace (reference scenario)* Greenpeace ([r]evolution scenario)* ,036 2,968 Greenpeace (advanced scenario)* ,330 4,318 IEA Reference Scenario <60 Non competitive IEA ACT Map IEA Blue Map ,150 IEA PV Technology Roadmap ,155 * 2010 values are extrapolated as only 2007 and 2015 values are given

12 Further Outlook After 2020 the European Market for newly installed PV systems will represent less than the 50% anticipated until then. Large markets will be China, Europe, India and US. Africa and South-East Asia will emerge as large markets. Off-grid installations will grow faster than grid-connected installations. Required: Grid Management. World-wide Emission Trading.

13 Conclusions Growth of PV electricity installations is much faster than predicted by most scenarios.! Adaptation of current grid structures to accommodate larger share of decentralised RES is needed to enable a large scale use of PV electricity. Only increasing markets ensure that PV electricity prices are continuously declining.! For the next decade solar PV will still need support. Photovoltaics is one of the most important building blocks for decentralised rural electrification. PV electricity is an important building block to realise a decarbonised energy supply

14 PVGIS What is PVGIS? a database of solar radiation and temperature data combined with a web interface that lets users calculate the energy output of photovoltaic (PV) systems. a scientific tool that allows us to do research on the performance of PV systems over large geographical areas and estimate the potential for solar energy deployment in Europe and Africa. How was it obtained? Europe: Long-term monthly averages global and diffuse irradiation from ground stations are interpolated onto a spatial grid. Data collected by ESRA over the period Africa: Daily values of global irradiation sums from the HelioClim-1 database, estimated from MFG satellite data, with a spatial resolution of 15. Time period The online calculation also includes the effects of shadows from nearby mountains (based on the SRTM-3 DEM, resolution of 3 arc-seconds,~90m at the equator).

15 PVGIS: web interface features Covers Europe and Africa Various types of PV installations: fixed or tracking, models for different PV technologies Calculator for stand-alone PV applications (Africa only) High-resolution terrain data allows calculation of the effects of shadowing Google Maps interface with search and zoom facilities.

16 PVGIS Click here Then click here

17 AFRETEP Scientific and Technical Support to Sustainable Energy Development in Africa: rural electrification, renewable energy and communication. Founded by: European Commission, Europe Aid Co-operation Office. 3 years. Tasks: Increase Scientific and technological knowledge sharing. Establish a network of African Research Institutions. Promote cooperation and coordination. Provide scientific information, geographical data and appropriate tools.

18 AFRETEP 1 st AFRETEP Meeting: Cameroon, Senegal, Uganda, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Ghana, Tanzania, Botswana, EU. Activities: Capacity building. Launching a public-accessible web page, Gather high quality renewable energy resource geographical information in Africa. Decision support system tool.

19 Thanks for your attention. For more information, please contact: (PV Status Report 2010) (PVGIS) (HU Renewable Energy) (AFRETEP)