KIVI NIRIA Slim Materiaalgebruik Chemie en Grondstoffen Naar een duurzame voedselproductie
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1 KIVI NIRIA Slim Materiaalgebruik Chemie en Grondstoffen Naar een duurzame voedselproductie November 23, 2011 From a fertilizer producers perspective Harold van der Zande
2 48% of the global population are fed thanks to the use of mineral fertilizers. Without mineral fertilizers human life is unsustainable.
3 This is a basic problem, to feed 6.6 billion people. Without fertilizer, forget it. The game is over. Dr. Norman Borlaug Nobel Peace Prize Winner Father of the Green Revolution
4 By 2050 we will have 3 billion new mouths to feed.
5
6
7 Poor harvest due to adverse conditions
8 As a result food prices have escalated Historical highs or all major crops: wheat, corn, soy, sugar, cotton, Several problems reported in USA and China (flooding & drought related) Agri futures 2012 remain high
9 Food: 925 million hungry people in 2010
10 Feed: rapidly growing Chinese demand
11 Fuel: (Bio)ethanol fuelling corn market Ethanol production running at record levels. In 2010/11, the US ethanol industry is on track to consume over 38% of this season s corn crop, the third largest crop on record. US ethanol production pace is up 23% YOY and is on track to exceed the RFS mandate by more than 1 billion gallons. Source Rabobank
12 Future: FAO outlook 2050 (Oct. 2009) Growing population (9,1 billion in 2050): + 34% Increasing wealth: GDP/capita + 140% Changing diet (more meat): + 70% (2010 value) More cereals and other produce (incl. vegetables): + 50% (volume) Limited natural resources Land Water Genetic diversity Food security issues Climate change Bio-fuels Hunger reduction Agricultural investments Technology developments Import dependency
13
14 Nitrogen: the most important nutrient
15 Robust growth of fertilizer nutrients
16 Poor use efficiency in selected countries
17 Phosphates strong growth notably in developing countries Low quality soils require high phosphate input (Brazil) Balance with manure, containing relatively high phosphate levels (EU) Initiatives to recover valuable nutrients in effluents in Europe
18 Potash growing potash use required to meet future grain demand Maximum yields require optimized fertilization of all three main nutrients Shortages can be short term masked by higher nitrogen inputs Quality versus quantity
19 Limited availability of additional land climate is key: South America, Russia, Africa
20 Economical water scarcity predominant driver for future developments On average 1,000 litres of water are needed to produce 1 kg of maize 1,500 litres to produce 1 kg of wheat 2,500 litres for 1 kg of rice 4,000 litres for 1 kg of poultry 15,000 litres for 1 kg of beef 3,000 litres per person to produce our daily food intake
21
22 European Renewable Energy Policy challenging 2020 targets ETS activities: 21% saving in 2020 (base 2005) Non-ETS: 10% saving in 2020 (base 2005)
23 Green House Gas Emissions mainly from Ammonia and Nitric Acid production. EU-27 (2005) ammonia production units emit ~ 29 Mil ton CO 2 nitric acid production units emit ~ 48 Mil ton CO 2
24 Ammonia plants highest achievable energy efficiency has been reached Ammonia is the basis for nitrogen mineral fertilizers Ammonia is produced by high pressure synthesis of nitrogen (from air) with hydrogen The source of hydrogen is either natural gas, oil or coal The process emits CO 2 of which ~70 % comes from the feedstock ~30 % comes from heating the feedstock Energy consumption per EU BAT for natural gas based plants 31.8 GJ per ton ammonia for existing plants Generating 1.8 ton of CO 2 per ton ammonia Ammonia production is energy intensive
25 Nitric Acid production BAT will lead to 70% reduction of N 2 O emissions N 2 O has 310 times the warming potential of CO 2 The average emission of N 2 O in EU fertilizer plants in 2005 was 7.3 kg per ton of Nitric Acid (2.2 ton CO 2 ) The installed Nitric Acid capacity of 21.5 million ton leads to 48.1 million ton CO 2 emission Reduction to BAT levels will lead to 12.3 mil. ton of CO 2 emission and reduce the emissions by more than 70% Two practical solutions with different effects Catalytic decomposition of N 2 O just after being formed in the burner: Slight modifications may be required, limited investment In medium pressure plants a level of 1-2 kg N 2 O seems possible In atmospheric and high pressure plants a reduction below 2 kg N 2 O can be difficult due to pressure limitations Catalytic decomposition of N 2 O in the tail gas: Potential to achieve very low N 2 O levels Only applicable for high tail gas temperature (> 420 C) High investment cost to retrofit existing plants
26 Emission of fertilizers at BAT levels
27
28 Reactive Nitrogen through ammonia abundantly available but not accessible for the plant
29 Gas: less than 100 years of reserves global nitrogen market dominated by the availability of cheap natural gas
30 Phosphates open pit mining geo-political issues: China, Western Sahara, Russia
31 World Phosphate Rock Reserves sufficient for next 400 years based on current production level Phosphate rock is a finite non-renewable resource Reserves and resources Reserves are a dynamic quantity There are more reserves than some studies indicate There is no indication of peak phosphorous Recovery and utilization Recovery should be maximized as much as feasible Alternative products Utilize low-grade phosphate rock Make fertilizers available at the lowest cost
32 Potash - reserves and resources high concentration in few countries: Canada & Russia
33 World Potash Reserves sufficient for next 500 years based on current production level Potash is a finite non-renewable resource At present levels of production (33 Mt K 2 O per year) and with current/planned capacity, the industry can easily meet future demand Reserves (8.3 billion t) are sufficient to supply potash for 250 years another 250+ considering the reserve base (18 billion t) Allowing for known resources (250 billion t) there is sufficient potash to meet demand for thousands of years
34 Mahatma Ghandi there s enough food for everyone s need, but not for everyone s greed Nitrogen is abundantly available, however, energy is required to make it available to plants Currently favored natural gas is only limited available <100 years Phosphates and Potash are available for many hundreds of years, but as they are irreplaceable and no alternatives are available, recovery and other preservation technologies should be exploited to the max.
35 Sustainability Through technological improvements the fertilizers industry will reshape itself towards a sustainable chain But the main question is whether over 9 billion inhabitants on earth is a sustainable option Agricultural land is limited Fertile soils are limited Rain water resources are limited Biodiversity is declining Etc.
36 Contact OCI Nitrogen Headquarters Mijnweg AC Geleen The Netherlands T
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