THE CHEMICALS INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES TO INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCY, TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND TO LIMIT MERCURY DISCHARGES CONCEPT NOTE
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1 1 THE CHEMICALS INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES TO INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCY, TO REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND TO LIMIT MERCURY DISCHARGES CONCEPT NOTE Summary: This note provides a brief overview of the global chemicals industry, identifying past and future trends in production, consumption and use of raw materials and energy. The note highlights some of the implications of upcoming shifts in production from OECD countries to emerging economies, in the context of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the wake of Gleneagles Summit and of the new climate change-related mandate of the Bank, this note identifies opportunities to increase energy efficiency in the production of chemicals, which could not only lead to a reduction of (GHG) but could simultaneously result in a reduction of discharges of mercury. The goal of the note is to bring the reader s attention to the potential synergies that exist between the climate change and the chemicals agendas, and to suggest options for future Bank involvement. 1. The chemicals industry is central to the world s economy - The global chemicals industry is an important part of the world economy with an estimated US$1,500 billion in sales in It is more than twice the size of the world market for telecommunications equipment and services, and accounts for roughly 7% of global income and 9% of international trade. The industry is a major employer, with over 10 million people employed worldwide in Almost every country has a chemicals industry, but the bulk of production is accounted for by a small number of industrialized countries. In 1998, approximately 80% of the world s total output was produced by 16 countries. Per capita consumption of chemicals in the developed world is also far greater than in the developing world One of the most important trends seen in the global chemicals industry since 1970 is its rapid growth. World chemical output increased by a factor of nine from 1970 to 1998, and all economic indicators point to continued expansion of the industry over the next 20 years. Annual sales growth is expected to continue at around 3% per year. Trade is also expected to increase considerably over the next 20 years The chemicals industry will continue to grow in the next two decades and it will increasingly expand in emerging economies. The bulk of chemicals production was traditionally controlled by OECD countries. However, the growth of the chemicals industry across the world over the past three decades has been significant, with countries such as China, Brazil, India, Russia and the Middle Eastern region playing an increasingly important role. The rate of growth of the Indian chemical industry over the last five years, for instance, has been double than that of the Asian growth rate in the chemicals sector, and over five times the world growth rate. 4. Similarly, total chemicals demand is projected to increase more rapidly in developing than developed regions, reflecting higher GDP growth rate and increasing use of chemicals. By 2020, the developing world is expected to account for 33% of world chemical demand and 31% of production, compared with 23% and 21% respectively in Chemicals production is a major source of GHG emissions - The manufacturing sector is a major consumer of energy. As a result, manufacturing industries are responsible for approximately one third of all global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In particular, the 1 OECD Environmental Outlook for the Chemicals Industry, 2001
2 2 chemical sector is one of the most energy-intensive of the manufacturing industries. For instance, in 2004, chemical production accounted for roughly 29% and 18% of the manufacturing energy use, and for 6% and 10% of the total domestic energy of the U.S. 2 and China 3, respectively. On a global scale, the chemicals industry accounted for approximately 7% of total world energy use in This high energy consumption leads to significant GHG emissions. Specifically, in 1998, the chemical sector contributed to 4% of the overall CO2 emissions from all industries in OECD countries The production of basic chemicals is a mature industry - The raw materials used in the manufacture of first-level chemicals are oil, coal, natural gas, air, water and minerals. These feedstocks are refined to make basic chemicals such as benzene, ethylene and propylene, which are further processed for the production of second-level chemicals, specialty chemicals, life science products and ultimately, consumer products. While the chemicals industry has grown consistently over the past three decades, the list of top 50 basic chemicals has, for the most part, remained unchained. Production plants for these basic chemicals are similar, typically characterized by large facilities with continuous operations and high energy consumption. 7. The production of a handful of chemicals dominates energy use The single most energy-consuming step in the petrochemical industry is the steam cracking of hydrocarbon feedstocks to produce ethylene, benzene, propylene, and other basic chemicals. In the U.S., for instance, the production of ethylene, chlorine and ammonia accounts for 46% of the total energy used by the chemicals manufacturing sector. Ethylene production alone consumes roughly 30% of the sector s energy. Global ammonia production consumes over 1% of the world s energy, while chlorine production is one of the main electricity consuming processes in the chemical industry. 8. The choice of feedstock, together with processing conditions, determines yield and energy efficiency of chemical production - Since production of chemicals consumes energy both as feedstocks and as fuel, the choice of energy sources can have major implications in the amount of energy used. For example, in the U.S., natural gas feedstocks account for 70% of ethylene production, while in Europe, naphtha feedstocks account for 75% of the production. Average energy use per tonne of ethylene produce amounts to 68 GJ and 58 GJ in the U.S and Europe, respectively. In China, where heavy feedstock mixes are used for ethylene production, energy consumption ranges from 73 to 90 GJ per tonne In the case of ammonia, potential energy gains from feedstock selection are even more striking. The choice of feedstock influences energy efficiency. Using coke to manufacture ammonia consumes 70% more energy than using natural gas. China produces 66% of its synthetic ammonia using coke, while the U.S produces 98% of its ammonia using natural gas. Moreover, ammonia production in China is dominated by small and medium-size plants. Estimates are that energy consumption per unit output for small plants can be more than 76% higher than that of large plants. 10. Energy efficiency measures in OECD countries have led to significant reductions on GHG emissions - Over the past two decades, major energy efficiency gains have resulted in the stabilization of CO2 emissions from chemical production in OECD countries. CO2 emissions from the European and US chemicals industries have stabilized, while production 2 DOE, Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, OECD Environmental Outlook for the Chemicals Industry, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1995
3 3 has been increasing. In the EU, CO2 emissions increased 2% between 1985 and 1996, but during the same period production grew 34% and energy consumption leveled off. In the US, CO2 emissions increased by 3.3% between 1980 and 1998, but energy consumption per unit of production declined by 43% between 1974 and The most striking emissions reductions have taken place in Japan, where emissions increased slightly between 1990 and 1998, but there was approximately a 70% reduction in unit energy consumption between 1970 and Availability of feedstocks will influence global production of chemicals - There is a clear trend of increasing chemical production in countries with large and relatively economical supply of natural gas. Over the next 10 years, for instance, roughly 30 million metric tons of ethylene capacity will be added to current global production. Of that additional capacity, 40% will be in the Middle East. In fact, by 2012, the Middle East is expected to become the greatest exporter of petrochemicals. Production costs in of petrochemicals in the Middle East make it difficult for other petrochemical producers to compete using natural gas as a feedstock. 12. Current high oil and natural gas prices are driving a shift back to coal use for petrochemical production - Essentially all first-level organic petrochemicals were made from coal feedstocks during 1900 to1930. However, the supply of inexpensive oil and natural gas motivated the chemical industry to switch almost completely to natural gas and petroleum liquids over the period 6. Nonetheless, in countries where oil and gas are not abundant or economical, coal has maintained its role as feedstock, and its importance is growing. As the cost of crude and natural gas continues to rise, there is an increasing interest in using coal as a source of energy and feedstocks. The cost of using coal as feedstock for petrochemicals is typically higher, in terms of capital investment and production costs, than that of using gas. However, at increasing gas prices, the use of coal as feedstock becomes once again feasible. 13. GHG emissions from the global chemical industry are projected to increase - The share of world energy used by the chemicals industry in non-oecd regions has increased from 19.8% in 1971 to 42.9% in No estimates of CO2 emissions for the chemicals sector are available for emerging economies. However, it is expected that with typically less efficient technologies, CO2 emissions in the past three decades have increased significantly. When combined with the growing reliance of the chemicals industry on coal as fuel and feedstock, particularly in China, it is fair to assume that GHG emissions from the chemicals sector in emerging economies have increased and will continue to do so as production capacities expand. 14. There are clear opportunities to promote energy efficiency in the production of chemicals. The IPCC Mitigation report 7 identified a list of industrial sectors, among which the chemicals sector, where technological improvements could lead to decreasing energy use, with a resulting reduction in GHG emission reductions. Along with feedstock optimization, technological conversions can greatly improve energy efficiency. The production of chlorine, for instance, is a clear example. Chlorine is manufactured through electrolysis of brine. There are currently three main types of electrolysis equipment used, namely mercury flow cells, diaphragm cells and ion-selective membranes. Mercury cell-based technologies, although widely used in the past, are consume on average 17% more energy membrane cells. While EU countries have put in place policies to phase out all operational mercury cells, they continue continues to be widely used in developing countries. In India, for instance, mercury 6 Nexant, IPCC Climate Change 2001: Mitigation
4 4 cells accounted for nearly 34% of the total chlorine production in In Brazil, mercury and diaphragm cell production accounts for 42% of the output for the same year. 15. Synergies between the climate change and the chemicals agendas Most of the sectors identified in the IPCC Mitigation report are also singled out in publications by the Stockholm and Basel Conventions 8. These publications aim at identifying technological alternatives to current industrial processes that will lead to reductions of toxic chemicals emissions. For instance, Best Available Technologies and Best Environmental Practices (BAT/BEP) for the reduction of emissions of dioxin and furans are documented for industries including petrochemical, chemical, metal processing, iron and steel, cement, pulp and paper and many others. Therefore, initiatives to promote technological conversions in the manufacturing sector leading to reductions of GHG could, at the same time, be used to promote measures that result in reductions of dioxin and furan emissions. 16. Opportunities for combining reductions of GHG emissions and releases of toxic chemicals from the manufacture of chemicals are also applicable to reductions of mercury. Two industrial processes in particular are major sources of atmospheric discharges of mercury, namely chlorine production and Vinyl Chloride Monomer (VCM) production. The former releases mercury from the use and maintenance of mercury-based cells used in the electrolysis of brine. The latter uses mercuric chloride as catalyst in the production of VCM from acetylene. Both processes are highly energy intensive. Replacing mercury cells by other types of electrolysis cells would not only reduce energy consumption but would eliminate mercury releases. On the other hand, acetylene-based production of VCM consumes considerably more energy than ethylene-based processes, and has therefore been phased out in most of the world. In China, however, where production of acetylene is more economical than that of ethylene, almost 60% of the VCM capacity is based on acetylene. Some acetylene-based VCM plants also remain in Russia. Mercury releases from VCM production, although not quantified, are believed to be significant. 17. Clean coal technologies Coal-fired power and heat production is the largest single source of mercury emissions to the atmosphere. Improving the efficiency or reducing the level of emissions of coal-based power generation would of course not only drastically reduce GHG emissions, but also have a major impact on mercury releases. Capture of mercury from bituminous and sub-bituminous coal-fired power plants (and possibly lignite-fired plants) on the order of 60-90% is technically achievable, although costs and expertise are currently limiting factors. 18. The way forward The following three topics are suggested as potential areas of future work. They fit well within the new climate change mandate of the Bank, and at the same time they help promote and implement the global chemicals agenda. a. Synergies exist between the climate change and chemical agendas, which provide clear opportunities to promote reductions of GHG emissions and of heavy metal discharges through: Introduction of energy efficient technologies e.g. membrane cell technology in chlor-alkali sector Choice of feedstocks e.g. ethylene rather than acetylene for VCM production Clean burning of fossil fuels b. There is potential to avoid increasing GHG emissions from chemicals industry by promoting energy efficiency and clean technologies in chemicals manufacturing: 8 Guidelines on BAT and provisional guidance on BEP relevant to Article 5 and Annex C of the Stockholm Convention on POPs, 2004
5 5 Supply side Increasing potential in areas in which Bank and GEF are already involved such as: i) clean and efficient power generation; ii) power distribution networks; and iii) efficient technologies in refrigeration, heating and overall industrial processes. End-user side Energy consumption patterns must also be considered. Potential for work in areas including: i) efficient use of fuels and feedstocks (e.g. ammonia production); efficient technologies and procedures for energy intensive sectors of production (e.g. ethylene, chlorine and ammonia production) c. The perceived market-driven shift back to coal use for petrochemical production needs to be carefully evaluated, particularly in the current climate of natural gas and oil scarcity. Emerging economies account for much of the projected growth in marketed energy consumption over the next two decades, with energy use expected to more than double by Development and implementation of clean coal technologies may become particularly relevant in regions where cleaner energy sources are scarce.
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