Global Gasoline, Global Condensate and Global Petrochemical Markets to 2020 and How much naphtha will end up in gasoline blending?

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Merryl Norman
6 years ago
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Should I build a splitter? Should I import naphtha or Condensate? Should I export PC? How do I dilute my crude?

1 Study Prospectus Nexus - The Interaction Between: Global Gasoline, Global Condensate and Global Petrochemical Markets to 2020 and 2025 Can I export more naphtha? Should I build a splitter? Should I build a splitter? Should I import naphtha or Condensate? Should I export PC? How do I dilute my crude? How much naphtha will end up in gasoline blending? How much naphtha for BTX? Is there enough naphtha for my ethylene plant, where will I get more?

2 Study Scope Nexus ties together gasoline blending, petrochemical demand, refining and splitting investment and global naphtha and condensate trade flows into an integrated understanding of the product market with the most potential for growth over the next 10 years. I. Executive Summary II. Investment Implications a. Required Investment in Supply Chain i. Refining and splitting ii. NGLS iii. Petrochemicals b. Required Investment in Gasoline Blending i. Refining ii. Octane Enhancement c. Required Investment in Condensate Markets i. Infrastructure ii. Splitters III. Supply by Region or Country (broken into Light and Heavy) a. Refining Sector Output Light/Heavy i. From Refineries 1. Based on configuration and crude diet ii. From Splitters 1. Based on condensate supply b. Supply from Natural Gas Liquids i. From NGLS 1. Based on natural gas availability and infrastructure IV. Demand by Region or Country a. Petrochemical Demand i. Ethylene ii. BTX iii. Drivers in key countries b. Transportation Demand i. Gasoline Supply and Octane Requirements ii. Use in Gasoline Blending V. Global Trade Flows a. Expected trade between all regions with special focus on: i. Asia Deficit ii. Middle East Surplus iii. Opportunities for US exports VI. Global Lease Condensate Supplies a. Production b. Trade Flows i. Opportunities for US Condensate exports c. Impact on crude input to refineries d. Impact on product yields VII. Pricing Implications a. Crude oil price outlook b. Gas-oil relationship c. Petrochemical margins d. spreads to crude

Study Methodology The Nexus integrates several analytical steps. Each step is carried out at the country level to generate data for geographic regions.

3 Study Methodology The Nexus integrates several analytical steps. Each step is carried out at the country level to generate data for geographic regions. Customers may purchase the regional totals alone or include the country level data for the 30 most important countries. 1. Based on ESAI Energy s proprietary forecast of gasoline demand by country, the first step examines heavy naphtha production in refineries and identifies the method and extent of blending to meet local or export gasoline specifications. This refinery by refinery approach identifies a maximum absorption of naphtha by the gasoline pool in each country. It also identifies octane requirements in each country and how they will be met. 2. Based on the supply and demand for naphtha in gasoline and the resulting utilization of downstream refining units such as reformers and FCC units, the analysis identifies a surplus of heavy naphtha that is then eligible for use in other sectors or for export. At the same time, the analysis identifies the volume of BTX produced in the refining process. 3. Finally petrochemical demand for both ethylene and aromatics are analyzed in each country to determine input fuel and resulting demand for naphtha. 4. Both light and heavy naphtha leftover from the refining process are then combined with splitter output to determine a nongasoline volume of supply in each country. This is combined with pentanes plus surpluses in each country. This supply is measured against petrochemical demand (step 3) to determine national and regional surpluses and deficits. 5. In the meantime, the volume of lease condensate available and the investment in splitter capacity measure the relative surplus and deficit of lease condensate in each country and region. 6. Upon the completion of steps 1-5, the study develops projections of trade flows of both naphtha and lease condensate between geographic regions, leading to conclusions that answer questions such as: How much naphtha will each region consume, produce, import or export? How much naphtha will be absorbed in gasoline production and how much in petrochemical production Where will splitters be built to grow naphtha supplies? Where will condensate come from to fill those splitters? How will condensate and naphtha investment differ region to region.? Supply Chain Covered in Study Butane Alkylate Gasoline Fundamentals Condensate splitters Direct Gasoline Blending Isomerate Light Crude Quality Changes Capacity Investment Topping Units Refinery CDU Light Supply Isomerization Steam Cracking Other (e.g. Diluent) Heavy Oxygenate Reformate Cracked Gasoline Refinery Optimization Petrochemical Fundamentals Natural Gas Fractionators Heavy Supply Reformate BTX Extraction Direct Gasoline Oxygen Blending ate Reformate LPG Light Ethane Olefins BTX

4 Regional Data Provided: North America with US Asia with China breakout Mideast Latin America Europe Former Soviet Union (FSU) Africa breakout Sample Regional Data Table

5 Country Data includes: Sample Country Data Table Algeria Brazil France Iran Malaysia Saudi Arabia Spain U.A.E. Argentina Canada Germany Italy Mexico Singapore Taiwan United Kingdom Australia China India Japan Netherlands South Africa Thailand United States Belgium Egypt Indonesia Kuwait Russia South Korea Turkey Venezuela Nexus Multi-Client Study includes regional data tables. Additional Country level data cannot be

Nexus: The Interaction of Global Gasoline, Condensate and Petchem Markets to 2020 and 2025 3 Ways to Order: Phone: +1.781.245.

6 Nexus: The Interaction of Global Gasoline, Condensate and Petchem Markets to 2020 and Ways to Order: Phone: to speak with Tom Lovett Invoice To: Name: Fax: Complete this order form and send to Please send form information to tlovett@esai.com Credit Card Orders call ask for Kathy Cooper Company: Title: Address: Address 2: City: State: Country: Postal Code: Deliverables: Phone: Fax: PDF copy, ed Direct access to ESAI Energy analysts for questions pertaining to the study Data Tables delivered in Excel Printed copy (upon request) Please contact Tom Lovett for pricing. Options include: Study with regional data Study with regional and country data Please send me a free copy of ESAI Energy s Monthly NGL Outlook About ESAI Energy LLC ESAI Energy, LLC is an energy research and forecasting firm that focuses on global petroleum, alternative fuels and natural gas markets. The firm is an affiliate of Energy Security Analysis, Inc, which has conducted energy market analysis and price forecasting since the mid- 1980s. ESAI Energy s petroleum, alternative fuel and natural gas analysis and forecasting is based on a data-heavy methodology that is designed to integrate available data with the expert judgment of regional specialists to determine supply and demand trends by product and country. Using actual data and estimates where data are unavailable, ESAI Energy s regional analysts maintain historical databases for a variety of industry attributes: consumption, production, quality and inventories for crude oil and each of the main petroleum products, refinery capacity and throughput, alternative fuels supply and demand, and petrochemical and midstream blending inputs. Using these data, information and understanding of language and political economy in each region, analysts forecast developments in these markets from one week to 25 years. The quantitative supply/demand analysis is complemented by detailed political, regulatory, and industrial analysis. ESAI Energy maintains a database of environmental specifications, taxes, tariffs and subsidies, and combines that information with ongoing political, financial, and regulatory research to determine future market trends in countries and regions. In addition, we study and interpret key geopolitical developments that impact the global energy markets. ESAI Energy produces multi-client studies like Nexus several times per year. In addition, we provide our retainer clients, who include energy companies and national governments all over the world, with ongoing market analysis and forecasting.

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