LNG Bunkering Relevance and Prospect for the MENA Region

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1 27 th Arab Engineering Conference & Exhibition Bahrain LNG Bunkering Relevance and Prospect for the MENA Region Lennart Luten Senior Manager, Galway Group 29 March

2 Contents Galway Group Setting the scene: LNG bunkering developments Global trade flows underpinning bunker demand Potential of LNG bunkering for the MENA region Conclusions and key takeaways 2

3 Galway Group Advancing Energy Decisions Galway Group is an energy advisory firm that offers commercial advisory, transactional, analytical and project structuring support to the energy industry. Our expertise is based on more than four decades of industry experience in support of global Fortune 500 companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, and governments. Typical clients include: Upstream gas and LNG producing companies; Government and investor-owned utilities; Large energy trading houses; LNG terminal development companies; Private equity investors. Galway has offices in Houston, Singapore and London. 3

4 Galway Group Value chain presence and representative projects Opportunity Definition Concept Framing Deal Development Financing Asset Operations Industry Leaders in Energy Project Development & Commercial Advisory 4

5 Galway Group Representative clients 5

6 Galway Group LNG Bunkering Study 6

7 Contents Galway Group Setting the scene: LNG bunkering developments Global trade flows underpinning bunker demand Potential of LNG bunkering for the MENA region Conclusions and key takeaways 7

8 Stringent marine emission regulation norms Are driving interest in LNG bunkering in Europe LNG bunkering developments in Europe Existing LNG Bunkering Infrastructure Currently Europe has a SECA that covers The Baltic Sea, North Sea and The English Channel EU backs Finnish bunkering project Statoil plans to develop LNG bunkering in the Baltic Sea EU funds LNG bunkering hub project Spanish port Considers LNG bunkering infrastructure Proposed LNG Bunkering Infrastructure Finnish LNG Bunkering Station receives approval for million in financial support LNG Bunkering market to develop at 63.6% CAGR, Europe emerges as the strongest regional market First LNG bunkering operation takes place at Danish port * SECA stands for Sulphur Emission Control Area; NECA stands for Nitrogen Oxide Emission Control Area. 8

9 .. With a similar trend emerging in North America as well LNG bunkering developments in North America Existing LNG Bunkering Infrastructure In addition to SOx limits, the North American ECA has limits on the NOx emissions as well (known as a NECA) TOTE finalises plans for LNG bunkering system to supply new containerships New LNG bunkering facility to target US, Canadian East Coast demand Proposed LNG Bunkering Infrastructure U.S. Coast Guard issues recommendations for LNG bunkering Jensen designed LNG bunkering ATB gets ABS approval Construction of First U.S. LNG bunker barge underway * SECA stands for Sulphur Emission Control Area; NECA stands for Nitrogen Oxide Emission Control Area. 9

10 Asia is expected to follow suit On the back of its dominant involvement in global shipping activities Asia-related Global Deep Sea Shipping Trade by Vessel Type 2025* 77% of the global Crude Tanker trade 64% of the global Products Tanker trade 80% of the global Bulk Carrier trade 74% of the global Container trade Asian region with LNG bunkering potential The Hong Kong Government Environmental Protection Department has implemented restrictions on burning fuel oil whilst berthed alongside within the port limits of Hong Kong. Singapore to roll out LNG bunkering infrastructure by early 2017 Talks about extending ECAs to Japan and Southeast Asia China is pushing for Yangtze River Delta ECA * Source: Galway Analytics. Please note that the pie charts amount to different totals, not shown here. Asia-related percentages are high-level projections. 10

11 Contents Galway Group Setting the scene: LNG bunkering developments Global trade flows underpinning bunker demand Potential of LNG bunkering for the MENA region Conclusions and key takeaways 11

12 Major trade routes from/through MENA region Plenty of crude oil activity and to a lesser extent product activity Global Crude Tanker Trade: 1,992 MT Crude Oil Other Regions 36% MENA 64% Global Products Tanker Trade: 882 MT Products MENA 31% Other Regions 69% Trade routes originating from or passing through MENA (2015 numbers) 12

13 Major trade routes from/through MENA region Also quite significant bulk carrier and container trade activity Global Bulk Carrier Trade: 3,742 MT Bulk MENA 27% Other Regions 73% Global Container Trade: 1,463 MT Container MENA 18% Other Regions 82% Trade routes originating from or passing through MENA (2015 numbers) 12

14 Global bunker demand by 2025 Most regions are expected to experience a significant growth Bunkering demand by region in 2015 and 2025 (in MT boe) Europe North America Asia & Australasia MENA 2025 South America Other Africa

15 Contents Galway Group Setting the scene: LNG bunkering developments Global trade flows underpinning bunker demand Potential of LNG bunkering for the MENA region Conclusions and key takeaways 15

16 Global LNG bunker demand is set to grow With MENA region s demand possibly accounting for up to 4 MT of LNG by MENA Region s Projected LNG Bunker Demand million tons LNG Bunker Demand for Trade Not Passing Through MENA LNG Bunker Demand for Trade Passing Through MENA Some 8 MT of global LNG bunker demand may be accounted for by vessels loading/ passing/ discharging in the MENA region by It is challenging to precisely forecast the LNG bunker demand at ports in the MENA region. A reasonable estimate would range from 10% to 50% of the 8 MT by

17 Key LNG bunkering drivers, and eligible ports The entire MENA region is ideally positioned to offer LNG bunkering solutions Elements factoring into LNG bunkering uptake for MENA Deep and shallow sea shipping intensity from, through or in MENA region Development of the required LNG bunkering infrastructure Vessel characteristics, technology, and replacement and/or conversion rate Economics of LNG vs. alternative fuels & emission control technologies Egypt Port Said Both LNG import and export terminals (Ain Sokhna, Damietta and Idku). Qatar Port of Ras Laffan Qatar LNG export projects Dubai (UAE) Port of Jebel Ali DUSUP LNG terminal Fujairah (UAE) Port of Fujairah Port of Khor Fakkan No LNG infrastructure yet Oman Port of Salalah Port of Qalhat Oman LNG export terminal Saudi Arabia Port of Jeddah No LNG infrastructure yet Interregional ECA spill-over effects and implementation of global limits Morocco Port of Casablanca LNG import terminal planned Djibouti Port of Djibouti LNG export project planned 18

18 Contents Galway Group Setting the scene: LNG bunkering developments Global trade flows underpinning bunker demand Potential of LNG bunkering for the MENA region Conclusions and key takeaways 19

19 Conclusions and key takeaways LNG Bunkering Relevance and Prospect for the MENA Region LNG bunkering activity has been on the rise in notably North America and Europe as a direct result of the implementation of regional ECA zones. Aside from the environmental dividend, LNG as a marine fuel is also quite competitively priced when compared to some of the traditional alternatives, such as IFO and MGO. The key prohibitive element however is the upfront investment in required infrastructure, which can be relatively expensive. However, as the shipping industry anticipates the introduction of global SOx and NOx emission level restrictions, the share of LNG in terms of overall bunkering volume consumption is set to rise. The MENA region, by virtue of its strategic location, is ideally positioned to offer LNG bunkering solutions, as some of the world largest marine trade flows pass through the region. Ports with existing LNG infrastructure (e.g. Qatar, Dubai and Egypt) could become frontrunners. 20

20 Thank you! London Houston Singapore (HQ) Houston Office: 3050 Post Oak Blvd., Suite 950, Houston, Texas Phone: Fax: Singapore Office (HQ): 8 Temasek Boulevard #22-04 Suntec Tower 3, Singapore , Phone: Fax: London Office: 3 More London Riverside, 1st Floor London SE1 2RE, United Kingdom, Phone:

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