Global Climate Change
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1 Global Climate Change MODULE 11: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT 1: BIODIVERSITY Objectives Define terms. Understand global climate change. Describe the basic predictions of the global climate models. Understand predicted impact if global climate change on biodiversity. 1
2 Climate Change Climate changes over time Long time scales Warmer in the Devonian CO 2 levels relatively stable over last 10,000 years Short time scales Little ice age in the 1300s North American drought cycle of 20 years What has contributed to global climate change in the past? Milankovitch Cycle Eccentricity Obliquity Precession Photosynthesis Volcanism Bollide impacts Ocean 2
3 Solar energy Insolation ¼ of the energy that reaches the atmosphere is reflected by clouds and gases. ¼ of the energy is absorbed by carbon dioxide, water vapor, ozone, methane, etc. Slight warming of the atmosphere ½ the energy reaches the Earth s surface. Mostly light Solar energy Some of the light that reaches the Earth s surface is reflected by snow, ice, sand, water. Albedo Absorbed energy heats surfaces, evaporates water, and creates energy for photosynthesis. 2 nd law of thermodynamics Entropy Absorbed energy is reradiated as heat. 3
4 What is Global Warming? In general, the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere traps heat which changes climate C0 2 is released by burning of fossil fuels Coal Oil Natural gas 4
5 What are Greenhouse Gases? These gases trap heat in the atmosphere Natural gases Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Water vapor Ozone Nitrous oxides Other greenhouse gases Chloroflourocarbons 5
6 What is Global Warming? Currently, global warming is occurring as increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases enter the atmosphere and trap heat. This is due to human domestic, industrial & agricultural practices. Carbon sources currently outweigh carbon sinks 6
7 What are carbon sinks? Plants are carbon sinks, as they sequester CO 2 Terrestrial forests Aquatic forests But, deforestation and habitat destruction continue for industrial, domestic & agricultural purposes. Observations of Climate Change Global mean surface temperature increased 0.5 C in the last 100 years. 20th century was the warmest on record since the15th century 16 of the 17 warmest years on record have occurred since was 1.8º F warmer than the 20th century mean. Rapid rate of increase. 7
8 A Positive Feedback Loop Atmosphere warms Polar ice melts Less reflective ice More sea to absorb heat Melting permafrost releases more CO2 to atmosphere Methane calthrate A Negative Feedback Loop Pollution (aerosols) reflects light back into the atmosphere A warmer atmosphere holds more water Clouds reflect light and cool planet 8
9 Global Climate Models General Circulation Models Expected 1.5 to 6.1 C increase in next 100 years Warming greatest at poles, weakest at tropics Climates to become more continental (extremes) Global Climate Models Global precipitation Changing spatial & temporal patterns Overall increase in volume & intensity In some regions, drought to become more common and more severe Change in ocean currents and atmospheric patterns of circulation Rising ocean levels Thermal expansion Melting ice 9
10 10
11 Biological Impacts Species may immigrate, adapt, or go extinct Spatial shifts Range shifts from equator to poles Altitudinal shifts Temporal shifts For many species, breeding and/or migration follows temperature and seasonal cues Great Basin Vegetation Recent 11
12 Great Basin Vegetation Best Great Basin Vegetation Worst 12
13 What species are vulnerable? Temperature-sensitive Corals (also vulnerable to increased acidity) Pikas Migratory Resource asynchrony Non-vagile Pagophilic, or ice-loving Polar bear, ice seals, walrus K-selected species vs. r-selected species? Predictions Thomas et al (2004) 2050 Minimum 9-13% species extinctions maximum 21-32% species extinctions This is based solely on climate predictions, not synergistic, anthropogenic threat. Controversial 13
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