3Q10 Results. October 28, 2010
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1 3Q10 Results October 28,
2 Disclaimer This presentation may include declarations about Vale's expectations regarding future events or results. All declarations based upon future expectations, rather than historical facts, are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such declarations will prove to be correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where Vale operates, mainly Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) capital markets; (d) the mining and metals businesses and their dependence upon global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) the high degree of global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may give rise to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including Vale s most recent Annual Report on Form 20F and its reports on Form 6K. 2
3 Agenda A vintage quarter A promising outlook The quest for sustainability 3
4 A vintage quarter 4
5 High operational performance 3Q10 QoQ YoY Iron ore 82.6 Mt 8.9% 23.7% Pellets 13.6 Mt 7.8% 71.1% All-time high output Carajás iron ore Pellets Resuming full capacity operation Nickel Copper 5
6 The best ever financial performance: a record-breaking quarter Records 3Q10 US$ billion QoQ YoY Revenues % 110.3% Operational income % 241.7% Operational margin 55.6% +770 bps +2,140 bps Net earnings % 260.0% Adjusted EBITDA % 192.5% 6
7 Dealing successfully with the growth trilemma: investing, returning capital to shareholders and maintaining a sound balance sheet Total debt Capital return to shareholders US$ 5.0 billion Total debt/ltm EBITDA (x)¹ Total debt - US$ billion¹ ¹ Liquid assets - US$ billion, ² Investments US$ 14.0 billion Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 ¹ at end of quarter. ² cash and cash equivalent. 7
8 Return on invested capital is recovering, continuing to run far above the cost of capital 40% 35% % % 20% ROIC LTM US$ billion 15% 10% Invested capital US$ billion % 20 0% 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q ROIC LTM = return on capital invested for the last twelve-month period. 8
9 Structuring world-class logistics infrastructure to support our operations around the globe Rio Colorado operation of the Ferrosur railroad and concession to build a maritime terminal in Bahia Blanca, Argentina. Simandou agreement with the government of Liberia to build a railroad and a maritime terminal¹. Moatize acquisition of 51% of SCDN, the first step to the development of a mine-railroad-port integrated infrastructure in Mozambique. ¹ The agreement has to be approved by the Parliament of Liberia 9
10 A promising outlook 10
11 Global IP growth has decelerated 20 Global industrial production % 3mma, saar¹ Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 ¹ Seasonally adjusted annualized rate Source: Vale and J.P. Morgan 11
12 However, the history of business cycles shows that strong recoveries are followed by deceleration towards moderation IP: global recessions and recoveries peak to trough 1st year 2nd year May/ % 11.0% 5.8% Jul/ % 3.3% -3.7% Dec/ % 9.7% 4.6% Mar/ % 2.0% 5.8% Nov/ % 3.7% 2.6% Mar/ % 10.3% n.d. Average: -8.2% 6.7% 3.0% Sources:Vale, BEA and NBER 12
13 We expect global industrial production to reaccelerate in 1H11 Global accommodative monetary policy. Fast growing consumption expenditures in emerging economies. Recovery of corporate investment. 13
14 China s GDP growth is likely to have bottomed last quarter. We expect growth to reaccelerate driven by domestic demand Chinese GDP growth¹ % Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 ¹ Saar Source: CEIC and Vale estimates 14
15 The iron ore market remains tight and quality has become the key factor in global competitiveness, as reflected by the behavior of premia Platts IODEX¹ US$/metric ton 1% Fe differential US$/metric ton Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 2 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 ¹ Platts Iron Ore Index, 62% Fe content Fonte: Platts 15
16 The premium for quality has outstripped the premium for proximity Quality 66% Fe¹ US$ wet basis² Distance Australia/Brazil China³ US$ ¹ Based on the premium of US$ 5.90 per dry metric ton for 4Q10 reference prices. ² US$ dry basis. ³ Average spot freight price from July to Oct 20,
17 Addressing Chinese concerns with high energy intensity and carbon emissions: Vale green ores Use of Vale high quality iron ores: - Maximizes energy efficiency, leading to less coke consumption per ton of steel. - Cuts CO 2 emissions. - Increase productivity of blast furnaces. - Positive effects are magnified by the combination of Vale's iron ore and pellets. 17
18 Nickel prices have been trending upward mostly reflecting the strong demand from all applications 28,000 Nickel prices US$/metric ton 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Source: Bloomberg 18
19 As destocking is ending, prices of fertilizers are beginning to reverse the downward trend 1,000 Monthly average prices US$/metric ton Potash¹ DAP² Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 ¹Fob Vancouver ²Fob Tampa Source: Vale and Fertilizer Week 19
20 Grain prices have increased sharply, raising profitability and stimulating the recovery in fertilizer demand 7.0 Corn US$/bushel 13 Soybeans US$/bushel Jan- 09 Mar- 09 May- 09 Jul- 09 Sep- 09 Nov- 09 Jan- 10 Mar- 10 May- 10 Jul- 10 Sep Jan- 09 Mar- 09 May- 09 Jul- 09 Sep- 09 Nov- 09 Jan- 10 Mar- 10 May- 10 Jul- 10 Sep- 10 Source: Bloomberg 20
21 Intensity of metals consumption in emerging economies is expected to remain high in view of urbanization, industrialization and the rising consumption of consumer durables 35 Steel consumption intensity kilos / US$ 1,000 of real GDP 90% Share of emerging economies in global consumption of metals % 70% 60% Iron Ore Nickel Copper 15 50% 10 5 Emerging Economies Developed Economies 40% 30% 0 20% Source: World Steel Association, WBMS, IMF and Vale 21
22 China s urbanization rate in 2010 is equal to Brazil s position in the mid 50 s and Korea in the early 70 s 100 Urbanization rate % 60 Urbanization rate % Brazil Korea China India China World Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects: the 2009 revision. 22
23 In spite of the substantial expansion, there is still room for large flows of infrastructure spending in China F Expressways (km) 41,000 65, ,000 Railways (km) 75,437 86, ,000 Airports (number) F = Target Sources: NBS, NDRC, CAAC and Ministry of Transport of China 23
24 China s car industry is already bigger than the US industry. However, the penetration is still low, indicating a huge growth potential Passenger cars per 1,000 people 2002 US Western Europe Japan Korea 205 Russia Brazil Mexico World China Sources: University of Sheffield, UK and CEIC 24
25 India is expected to contribute to additional market tightness Still a rural country, with an urbanization rate of 30%. Industry is still to small, only 21% of GDP. Government intends to double infrastructure investments to US$ 1 trillion in Exports of iron ore have been slowing, reducing continuously their share in Chinese imports since Exports of iron ore falling this year, by 8.4 % in 9M10. 25
26 The quest for sustainability 26
27 Contributing to global sustainability While the benefits of carbon-based energy use are current and highly focused, social costs are delayed and dispersed. Vale is developing several initiatives to reconcile short and long term interests, private and social returns, becoming an agent of global sustainability. 27
28 Vale has been developing and implementing several technological solutions in a quest for continuous improvement of mining Dry iron ore processing Truckless mine Green vessels Renewable energies 28
29 Dry iron ore processing: saving water, an increasingly scarce resource Conventional wet process Vale s dry ore process Run of mine Run of mine Water Lump Lump Sinter feed Sinter feed Tailings Pellet feed Reduction of water and energy consumption. Reduction of CO2 emissions. No need for tailings dam. Maximization of recovery rate Reduction of capex and opex 29
30 The truckless operation at Serra Sul will mean a reduction in carbon emissions, greater safety and forest preservation Conventional mining Truckless transportation 30
31 Green vessels Increasing global focus on carbon emissions. Our 400,000 dwt vessels emit 34% less pollution. Capesize 170,000 dwt 288m VLOC 400,000 dwt 360m 31
32 Vale s renewable source of energy - Biodiesel Vale s solutions for reduction of GHG emissions and carbon sequestration Biodiesel Allows the use of blend B 20 (20% pure biodiesel and 80% regular diesel) from 2014 onwards. GHG emissions reduction Reduction of 12 millions tons of CO 2 equivalent in 25 years. Income generation Creation of over 6,000 direct jobs. Recovery of degraded areas in the Amazon region. 70,000 ha. of natural forest. 60,000 ha. of palm trees. Benefits about 2,000 families of small producers in the Amazon region. 32
33 Fundação Vale: one of the largest corporate foundations in the world Capacity to fund social investment through its own endowment and fund raising with partners. Capacity to execute projects. Focus on infrastructure building, human and economic development, quality of local administration and management of mining impacts investment reached 0.75 % of Vale net revenues, the highest among global metals and oil companies. 33
34 Vale: a global leader 34
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