Welcome to a Webinar on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Silver Jackets Webinar Series Partnering Opportunities No.

Transcription

1 Welcome to a Webinar on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Silver Jackets Webinar Series Partnering Opportunities No. 4 May 31, 2017

2 Peter Colohan Director of Service Innovation and Partnership for the Office of Water Prediction at NOAA. Served as a senior advisor to Obama Administration officials on environmental data, climate, water, and drought. Served NOAA as a consultant in international coordination of Earth observations and environmental monitoring. Facilitated the establishment of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), an intergovernmental body. Degrees from the College of William and Mary in Virginia and American University s School of International Service.

3 Integrated Water Prediction at NOAA Presentation to Silver Jackets May 31,

4 T O O M U C H Presentation Outline Impetus for Change NOAA Water Initiative Integrated Water Prediction Plans New Water Prediction Service Summary 2 P O O R Q U A L I T Y T O O L I T T L E

5 WATER RISKS Too much, too little, poor quality

6 Grand Challenge Example: Mississippi River above Memphis, TN May 10, 2011 November 28, miles

7 INITIAL STAKEHOLDER PRIORITIES Climate Flooding Water Quality Water Availability Drought Variability & Change Need integrated understanding of near- and long-term outlook and risks Actionable Water Information High Resolution, Integrated Water Analyses, Predictions and Data Transform information into intelligence by linking hydrologic, infrastructural, economic, demographic, environmental, and political data.

8 Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS): Partners and Missions Collaborative Science-Based Solutions to Address Societal Needs Water Information: Collects and disseminates reliable, impartial, and timely information needed to understand the Nation's water resources to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters US Army Corps of Engineers Water Management: Strengthens our Nation's security, energizes the economy, and reduces risks from disasters Water Prediction: Provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy. FEMA Response and Mitigation: Supports our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against respond to, recover from and mitigate all hazards IWRSS Partnership anticipated to expand over time IWRSS Partnership will expand over time 6

9 NOAA Water Initiative Overarching Goal: Transform water information service delivery to better meet and support evolving societal needs User-Oriented, informed by Regional and National Conversations on Integrated Water Information Leverages the National Water Center to provide next-generation, science-based water information and decision support services. Calls for collaboration across federal agencies and with partners outside government Released in December

10 NOAA Water Initiative Key Objectives and Outcomes Improve Modeling & Prediction Enhance Water-Related Observations Accelerate Research & Development Strengthen Decision Support Tools Informed by social science Enhance Partnerships and Service Delivery

11 Integrated Water Prediction and the Office of Water Prediction (OWP) Multi-Year Planning FY Core Capability Centralized Water Forecasting National Water Model (NWM) operational [V1.0 Aug. 2016] Water forecasts for 2.7 million stream reaches Expand from only flow/stage forecasts to forecasts of full water budget 100 million people get a terrestrial water forecast for first time Forecasts linked to geospatial informational to provide water intelligence FY Key Enhancement Flash Flood and Urban Hydrology Enhance NWM with nested hyperresolution zoom capability and urban hydrologic processes Heightened focus on regions of interests (e.g. follow storms) Street level flood inundation forecasts for selected urban demonstration areas NWC increases guidance to NWS field offices to improve consistency and services for flash floods FY Proposed Major Integration Coastal Total Water Level Couple NWM with marine models to predict combined storm surge, tide, and riverine effects More complete picture of coastal storm impacts Summit-to-sea water prediction information linked to geospatial risk and vulnerability New service delivery model implemented increased stakeholder engagement and integrated information NWC operations center opens and provides national decision support services and situational awareness TBD Key Enhancement Dry Side: Drought and Post- Fire Couple NWM with groundwater and transport models to predict low flows, drought and fire impacts Add NWM processes that capture subsurface water movement and storage during dry conditions Add NWM ability to track constituents (e.g. sediment, contaminants, nutrients) through stream network New decision support services for water shortage situations and waterborne transport NWC operations center expands to include drought and post-fire decision support services TBD Major Integration Water Quality Integrate enhanced NWM with key water quality data sets, models and tools to begin water quality prediction Incorporate water quality data from federal and State partners into NWM Link NWM output to NOAA ecological forecasting operations New decision support services for predicting water quality issues such as Harmful Algal Blooms New decision support services for emergencies such as chemical spills NWC operations center expands to include water quality decision support services

12 Integrated Water Prediction Setting the Stage for Transformation Centralized Water Forecasting Demonstration (2015) Enhanced Water Prediction Capability (2016) Integrated Water Prediction (2017 Proposed) National Water Model (NWM) Development and Demonstration Centralized Water Resources Data Services Water Resources Test and Evaluation Service Hyper-Resolution Modeling Real-Time Flood Forecast Inundation Mapping Enhance Impact- Based Water Resources Decision Support Services Stand up the National Water Center Operations Center Couple terrestrial freshwater and coastal estuary models for total water predictions in the coastal zone Increase high performance computing capacity 1 0

13 Streamflow Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS) Goal: forecast range of possible flows Observed streamflow Weather (forcing) uncertainty in flow Hydrologic uncertainty Total Forecast horizon HEFS aims to capture observed flow consistently So, must account for total uncertainty & remove bias Total = forcing uncertainty + hydrologic uncertainty

14 National Water Model v1.1 Analysis and Forecast Cycling Configurations Cycling Forecast Forcing Outputs Model output available at:

15 13 Movie (slide show to view)

16 NATIONAL WATER CENTER Regional Example of National Output (click to play movie)

17 Statement on High-Level Requirement at the Coast Effective creation and delivery of total-water level, flow, and quality information in the coastal zone, to serve as an authoritative source of actionable intelligence to inform decisions in coastal communities, economies, and ecosystems. - April 26, 2017 Coastal Inundation Summit Outcome

18 IWP Will Enable Prediction of the Total Water Level in the Coastal Zone Integrated accounting for all sources of coastal flood inundation within the National Water Model Inland freshwater runoff, tides, storm surge and wave action Couple terrestrial hydrology and coastal/estuarine modeling systems within Earth System framework 5 ft Inland Freshwater Runoff (floodwave) 16

19 National Water Center Initial Operating Capacity: May 26, 2015 A catalyst to transform NOAA s water prediction program Mission: Nationally Integrated Water Prediction Center of excellence for water resources science and prediction Interagency and Academia Collaboration Operations Center for water resources common operating picture and decision support services Proving ground to accelerate research to operations Earth system modeling and geointelligence 17

20 National Water Center Annual Innovators Program Partnership between NWS and the academic community via an Interagency Agreement with the National Science Foundation and CUAHSI with two fundamental goals: Provide a Framework for Collaboration Target Emerging Technologies Year one included a competitive Summer Institute for 44 graduate students from 19 Universities at the National Water Center, June 1 to July 17, 2015 Demonstrated ability to simultaneously model the entire continental United States river network at high spatial resolution, in near real-time for 2.7 million stream reaches Year two included a competitive Summer Institute for 34 graduate students from 21 Universities at the National Water Center, June 6 to July 21, 2016 Demonstrated the ability to generate flood inundation maps utilizing NWM output Engaged social scientists and stakeholders from the Fire, Police and Emergency Management Communities to explore ways to best communicate water information

21 Summary NOAA s Water Services are Evolving We are building a foundation for change but have a long way to go A continental scale modeling approach producing consistent, high fidelity information is needed to address growing stakeholder needs Stakeholder input will continue to inform future development activities, and the delivery and evolution of new services Deliver comprehensive, integrated actionable water intelligence Implementing State-of-the-Art Technical Approach Water prediction through state-of-the-science earth system modeling Impact-based decision support services underpinned by geo-intelligence Scale Change: Orders of Magnitude More Data Reach-based Street Level prediction High Performance Computing New Organization, Cornerstone Facility and Philosophy Office of Water Prediction/National Water Center Collaborative, cross-noaa, interagency, academic partnerships 19

22 BACK UP SLIDES

23 National Water Model Initial Operating Capability v1.0 implemented in Aug Spatially continuous estimates of major water cycle components (snowpack, soil moisture, channel flow, major reservoir inflows, flood inundation) Operational forecast streamflow guidance for currently underserved locations: 3,600 forecast points -> 2.7 million (NHDPlus river reaches) Implement an Earth system modeling architecture that permits rapid model evolution of new data, science and technology (i.e. WRF-Hydro) Ongoing Water Resource Evaluation Service (WRES) and Data Service (WRDS) to compliment implementation efforts Current NWS River Forecast Points overlaid with NWM Stream Reaches

24 Flood Inundation Mapping Forecast discharge with National Water Model 2. Convert discharge to depth using rating curve 3. Convert depth to inundation using HAND (relative elevation of water surface above cell in NHDPlus stream to which it flows) 3 Source: Yan Liu and Hu Hao, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign David R. Maidment University of Texas at Austin