China s 13 th Five Year Plan. March 2016

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1 China s 13 th Five Year Plan March 2016

2 Context: China in Uncharted Waters The country faces a developmental turning point in light of slowing economic growth and rising labor costs Economic growth is unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable Industrial over-capacity Environmental degradation Aging population Uneven development between regions and urban-rural divide Over-reliance on exports and investments Bureaucratic inefficiency & central-local fiscal power disparity Opacity in economic figures on-the-ground ; Cumbersome, risk-averse decision-making President Xi is pushing for a New Normal of economic development, with structural reforms aimed at securing sustainable and high-quality growth in the coming decades.

3 Developing the 13 th Five-Year Plan A Visionary Blueprint Master plan: Master policy blueprint through which the highest levels of leadership express their vision for China s medium-term economic and social development. The FYP is not just one document: The national FYP sits at the apex of a complex web of regional and ministry-specific FYPs. 5-year cycle: Largest policy-making event in China. Its issuance is followed by detailed implementing actions, including specific targets, related rules, and financial incentives. This is not a plan as this term was understood in the days of central planning - Joseph Stiglitz* Cyclical Structure of Policy-Making Years 1-5 Plan Carried Out Year 3 Mid-Term Review Year 1 (Mar.) FYP Issued Years 3-5 Revision Years 4-5 Drafting of Next FYP *Referring to 12 th FYP though even more appropriate for the 13 th FYP

4 Developing the 13 th Five-Year Plan A product of extensive consultations within government and with academia and industry Key Players in Central-Level FYP Development Government CPC Central Committee National People s Congress State Council NDRC Other relevant State Council departments CPPCC Role Provide the FYP basic guidelines Approve the final draft Draw up the final draft Organize intra-governmental research & drafting; draw up early drafts Assist in research & drafting within each relevant department s mandate Review and provide comments Non-Government Input from different levels of government, experts and the public. NDRC allocated more than 200 research topics to institutions and individuals through bidding. Chinese experts, industry associations, SOEs are also heavily involved in the drafting process. FYP drafting has increasingly involved more players, both from inside and outside the government, providing a peek behind the curtain of Chinese FYP making.

5 Goal: Building a Moderately Prosperous Society Five overarching principles for China s development 2021 is the CPC s 100th anniversary and the deadline for realizing a moderately prosperous society, for which the Party proposes five principles Inclusion to expand social services and increase people s welfare Innovation to lead China into a higherquality growth pattern Green development for environmentally friendly economic growth *Innovation & green development will be the key themes driving China s transformation during the 13th FYP Openness to utilize domestic and global markets and become more active internationally Coordination across different industries and regions

6 Goal: Building a Moderately Prosperous Society The 13 th FYP follows the general theme of the 12th FYP 12th FYP Themes Restructuring the economy to promote a lower growth rate target of 7%; Continue transformation from a manufacturing-based economy to an innovation-based economy; Promoting social equality to address the urbanrural economic divide; Protecting the environment through mandatory energy efficiency targets and policies across industries. Draft Goals of the 13th FYP Promoting a new normal of development that will lead to a shift to a consumption-led growth pattern, expected to double China s 2010 GDP and per capita income by 2020 with an annual growth rate above 6.5%. Becoming a powerful industrial country as the government promotes indigenous innovation through increased public R&D as well as subsidies and favorable tax policies for domestic firms. Creating a moderately prosperous society with balanced development between urban and rural areas. Protecting a deteriorating natural environment by setting new energy efficiency goals.

7 13 th FYP Themes Proposed sector specific action plans Innovation & Technological Advancement Next-Generation IT: Internet + action plan, developing Internet of Things, applying big data, cloud computing Advanced manufacturing: Raise the level of product development across the board move from Made in China, to Created in China Enhancing Environmental Protection & Green Growth Develop a green development model Lower carbon emissions, better resource management Green Energy: replace fossil fuel power plants; continue to develop alternative energy (including nuclear) China Manufacturing 2025 Initiative to comprehensively upgrade Chinese manufacturing, applying new IT to production

8 13 th FYP Themes Proposed sector specific action plans SOE Reform Improve the performance and efficiency of SOEs Encourage greater state investment into industries of significance to national economic security Encourage the private sector to enter into SOE dominated sectors Improve competition Urbanization Infrastructure Development Advance coordinated regional development promoting development of the inland provinces Promote new people-centric urbanization Coordinated regional development, such as the Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region and the Yangtze River Economic Belt

9 13 th FYP Themes Proposed sector specific action-plans Culture Development Improving Livelihood Speed up media digitalization Improve efficiency in the healthcare system Develop cultural industries Reduce costs for treating choric diseases Promote the spread of Chinese culture abroad Improve education quality Increase market competition Alleviate poverty Create better social insurance Healthy China 2020 Initiative to provide universal healthcare access and treatment for all of China by the year 2020

10 13 th FYP Themes Proposed sector specific action plans Government Reform Trade and FDI Improve the rule of law Improve transparency Improve investment environment Continue the anti-corruption campaign Financial Reform Accelerate the marketization and globalization of the RMB Develop greater access to financial services for SMEs Adopt a negative list investment catalogue Encourage Chinese companies to go out Belt and Road Initiative Global Cooperation Free Trade Zones Encourage more responsible local government spending

11 Implications for European Companies The 13th FYP is largely a continuation of existing policies and goals It does though provide insight into the ambitions of China s top leadership Companies should position themselves as partners for China s ambitious programs for economic and technological modernization SMEs should benefit from continued Chinese economic reforms and opening up

12 Contact Bruce Fu director APCO Worldwide 安可顾问 Suite 903, Tower C, Office Park No. 5 Jinghua South Street Chaoyang District Beijing China 中国北京市朝阳区景华南街 5 号 远洋光华国际 C 座 903 室 邮编 (t) Ext. 211 bfu@apcoworldwide.com

13 2016 APCO Worldwide. Sharing and reproduction as a whole or in-part permitted with attribution.

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