Biomass Energy for Transport and. under low CO2 concentration scenarios
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1 Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios PW Luckow, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, SH Kim College Park, MD May 26,
2 Major Themes of Forthcoming Paper (Luckow, Wise, Dooley, Kim) Importance of the land use policy for biomass energy to be an effective (and efficient) part of emissions mitigation Revisit Science (Wise et al 2009) paper insights Understanding di very large scale biomass production and use and the difference from current experience The use of biomass for liquid fuels and electricity under climate policy, and the importance of CCS 2
3 Biomass and Land-Use Policy One of the clearest results from the Science paper (Wise et al 2009) was that a policy that valued carbon in energy but not in land could lead to runaway clearing of land for biomass. But another result was that, t in a policy where the carbon in land could be valued equally with the carbon in the energy system bioenergy, including purpose grown crops, could be an major component of CO 2 mitigation And when bioenergy is used in conjunction with CCS, it may be a key technology in achieving low CO 2 concentrations. 3
4 Valuing the Carbon in Land Use When the carbon in land is valued equally with the carbon in the energy system, the economic trade-offs are efficient Biomass would be grown only where the value of the energy provided and the carbon mitigated in the energy system (including CCS) exceeds the carbon value (and any product) of using that land for of other purposes. including maintaining or even expanding forested and other unmanaged lands for their terrestrial carbon value 4
5 Bioenergy Feedstocks in the GCAM Purpose Grown, Dedicated Bioenergy Crops For this study, we modeled a switchgrass crop with intrinsic yields specified by region (with diminishing returns when production spreads to less productive lands) These crops compete for land with forest and other agriculture Agricultural Residues Potential supply directly linked to the production of food, forest, and other crops modeled in GCAM Collection of that supply depends on prices of biomass and erosion and land conservation factors (Gregg 2009) Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Potential linked to regional economic activity (Greg 2009) Smaller amount than ag residues but still significant 5
6 Modeling a large scale bioenergy production and distribution system Collection and Processing Pelletizing important to increase the energy density of the fuel and facilitate transportation Average cost to transport to local collection facility and pelletize of $2.18/GJ (2005$) 85% of cost is in pelletizing compare to $1.33/GJ for Coal (Edwards). International transport cost of $0.31/GJ (2005$) added to all regions (assumes large ocean bulk carriers) (Hamelinck, 2005) (Van Vliet, 2009, consistent with Wolf 2006) 6
7 Bioenergy-derived electricity production Many studies assume higher capital costs for Biomass IGCC, due to smaller plant size (Brown 2009, RRI 2009, Williams et al. 2009) GCAM assumes small increased cost due to bulk materials handling and lower energy density of biomass, but assumes that plant size would not be smaller since we have accounted for the cost of long distance transport of the biomass fuel (van Vliet 2009, Rhodes 2008) (IEA 2003, Rhodes 2008) 7
8 Production of Biomass-based liquid fuels CO 2 lost in processing (1-efficiency) is capturable CCS capture costs of $10.67 & $56.26 (2005$/tCO 2 ) for high and low purity streams (Dooley/Dahowski) Produced from lignocellulose through saccharification and fermentation with the use of enzymes Small (26%) fraction of high-purity CO 2 at the scrubber vent, a result of fermentation (Aden) Remainder is in combustion exhaust, more expensive to capture Ethanol Fischer-Tropsch Chemical reaction converts syngas to liquid fuels Can also be used for coal-to-liquids and gasto-liquids For biomass-derived FT fuels, CCS costs identical to coal are used Relatively large (81.8%) high purity stream resulting from syngas cleaning done even w/o capture in order to improve reaction (Dooley & Dahowski, van Vliet) Remainder is a low purity stream from combustion of tail gas, more expensive to capture
9 Modeling: 400 ppm and 450 ppm Concentration (Overshoot) Overshoot Cases; implications on timing The Base assumes CCS The Base (no CCS) is not intended d as a likely l scenario but an illustration of CCS importance 9
10 Biomass Production By 2050, tens of EJ of biomass produced per year in many regions, growing substantially by 2095 Initially much of production is residue/msw. Much of growth by 2095 comes from dedicated biomass ppm, with CCS
11 Land Use GCAM considers all demands for land in an integrated economic framework, including food, forests, and biomass Carbon price has large impact of forest and crop land (see Wise 2009 for more detail) 11 No policy 400ppm, with CCS 400ppm with ccs
12 Where bioenergy will be used in the long-term depends on the technologies available, particularly CCS With CCS Witho out CCS 12
13 400ppm Reference Energy Technologies and CCS is not available Electricity Transportation Electricity it sector Transportation ti sector dominated by nuclear heavily reliant on bioenergy energy Electricity and conventional Immediate phase-out of oil also play important roles coal 13
14 400ppm Reference Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economy Electricity Transportation 14 The world relies on a much more balanced portfolio of low-carbon electricity generating options The global deployment of biomass+ccs becomes significant after % of total in 2095 Conventional coal (CO 2 vented to the atmosphere) disappears well before the end of the century Conventional oil production remains steady at around current levels Bioenergy derived fuels meet much of the increased demand 12% of total in 2095 Electricity and natural gas are also important parts of the global transportation sector
15 400ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economy Global CO 2 Emissions by Sector 2 y Electricity sector emissions rapidly reduced, becoming negative from bioccs Transportation emissions relatively constant, reflecting large continued contribution from fossil fuels 15
16 400ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case CCS is not available Global CO 2 Emissions by Sector 2 y Electricity sector emissions rapidly reduced,,going gto zero (not negative) Transportation emissions rapidly reduced, as fossil fuels are completely phased out 16
17 Carbon Price Results Especially with BioCCS as an option, the availability of CCS has a large impact on carbon prices required to hit low CO 2 concentration levels. 17
18 Large Plantation Scale Biomass Energy Production Is Economic in a Greenhouse Gas Constrained World The fraction of the bioenergy price that accounts for the cost of collecting, transporting and delivering a uniform bioenergy commodity energy feedstock drops precipitously as the price of carbon permit prices rise GCAM now explicitly accounts for the cost of biomass collection/ preparation (including dehydration, densification and pelletization) and long distance transportation Hamelinck, C. N., R. A. A. Suurs and A. P. C. Faaij (2005). "International bioenergy transport costs and energy balance." Biomass and Bioenergy, Volume 29(2): ,ISSN , Luckow P, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, and SH Kim Large Scale Utilization of Biomass and Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Energy in the Transport and Electricity Sectors under Stringent CO2 Concentration Limit Scenarios." Accepted for publication The International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. May 2010.
19 Concluding Remarks Given an efficient policy for valuing carbon in land, biomass energy in conjunction with CCS could be a major component of achieving low concentration targets. Bio+CCS results in negative emissions which is very useful for Offsetting emissions (like oil in transportation) that may be the most expensive to mitigate Reducing concentrations in an overshoot scenario Under a climate policy, CCS should be deployed where possible (and economic) when biomass is used Net zero emissions is not good enough economically and will be beaten out by net negative emissions systems. 19
20 Conclusions (cont d) Percentage of energy-system biomass used in combination with CCS rises rapidly with carbon price 10% at $100/tC 90% at $500/tC 100% beyond $1000/tC In the end, the two major biomass pathways, electricity and refining, are very similar and no single path with win out entirely 20
21 21 References Aden, A., M. Ruth, et al. (2002). "Lignocellulosic Biomass to Ethanol Process Design and Economics Utilizing Co-Current Dilute Acid Prehydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis for Corn Stover." Brown, D., M. Gassner, et al. (2009). "Thermo-economic analysis for the optimal conceptual design of biomass gasification energy conversion systems." Applied Thermal Engineering 29(11-12): Dooley, J. J. and R. T. Dahowski (2009). "Large-Scale U.S. Unconventional Fuels Production and the Role of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Technologies in Reducing Their Greenhouse Gas Emissions." Energy Procedia 1(1): Gregg, J. (2009). Spatial and Seasonal Distribution of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion; Global, Regional, and National Potential for Sustainable Bioenergy from Residue Biomass and Municipal Solid Waste. Department of Geography. College Park, University of Maryland, College Park. PhD Dissertation. Hamelinck, C. N., R. A. A. Suurs, et al. (2005). "International bioenergy transport costs and energy balance." Biomass and Bioenergy 29(2): ( ) Research Reports International (2009). "Utility Use of Biomass: 2nd Edition." October Evergreen, Colorado. USA. Rhodes, J. and D. Keith (2008). "Biomass with capture: negative emissions within social and environmental constraints: an editorial comment." Climatic Change 87(3): van Vliet, O. P. R., A. P. C. Faaij, et al. (2009). "Fischer-Tropsch diesel production in a well-to-wheel perspective: A carbon, energy flow and cost analysis." Energy Conversion and Management 50(4): Wise, M., K. Calvin, et al. (2009). "Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy. " Science 324(5931): Wolf, A., A. Vidlund, et al. (2006). "Energy-efficient pellet production in the forest industry--a study of obstacles and success factors." Biomass and Bioenergy 30(1):
22 450ppm Reference Energy Technologies and CCS is not available Biomass Consumption by use The inability to deploy CCS anywhere in the economy results in Biomass being devoted to the transportation sector Relatively little biomass is used to generate electricity 22
23 450ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economy Biomass Consumption by use When CCS technologies are allowed to deploy throughout the global economy, it has an impact on how bioenergy is used In 2095, ~200 EJ of bioenergy used to produce electricity ~50 EJ of bioenergy goes to creating refined liquids 23
24 450ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economy Bioenergy by feedstock Bioenergy Production in 2095 (EJ/year by Region) Dedicated Residue Western Europe USA Southeast Asia Middle East MSW Residue Dedicated 200 MSW Latin America Korea E J 150 Japan India 100 Former Soviet Union 50 Eastern Europe China Canada Autralia/NZ Africa
25 450ppm Advanced Energy Technology Case with CCS Available throughout the economy Global CO 2 Emissions by Sector 2 y Electricity sector emissions rapidly reduced, becoming negative from bioccs Transportation emissions relatively constant, reflecting large continued contribution from fossil fuels 25
26 Carbon Prices Substantially increased costs without CCS availability CO 2 Concentration Carbon Price 26
27 Carbon prices drive bioenergy prices Carbon Price Trajectories in Two CO 2 Stabilization Scenarios Carbon Price and Biomass Price in Two CO 2 Stabilization Scenarios Luckow P, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, and SH Kim Large Scale Utilization of Biomass and Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Energy in the Transport and Electricity Sectors under Stringent CO2 Concentration Limit Scenarios." Accepted for publication The International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. May 2010.
28 Bioenergy doesn t need to be limited to marginal lands Bioenergy Land, as a Fraction of Total Land, in 2050 in a Reference Scenario Crop Land, as a Fraction of Total Land, in 2050 in a Reference Scenario 28
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