Vulnerability in Southeast Asia

Transcription

1 Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability in Southeast Asia Its relevance and application at the local level Arief Anshory Yusuf y EEPSEA/Padjadjaran University

2 The mapping in a nutshell Quantify the climate change vulnerability of 590 sub-national regions in 7 SEA countries. Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia Each region s exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity is assessed Exposure is based on 5 climatic hazards risk Sensitivity is based on population density and ecosystem sensitivity Adaptive capacity is based on 10 socio-economic variables Most of the data used is publicly available Impact and lessons learned The map received extensive attention, and follow-up works (local level studies) is on going A picture is worth a thousand words, a map is worth a million words.

3 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

4 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING Climatic Hazards Vulnerability to CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC FRAMEWORK

5 Conceptual Framework EXPOSURE Potential Impact SENSITIVITY Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity

6 Conceptual Framework Yohe and Tol (2002) ( + ) ( + ) V = f(e(a),s(a)) ( - ) ( - ) A = A(D 1,..,D n ) V = Vulnerability E = Exposure S = Sensitivity D = Determinants of Adaptive Capacity

7 Vulnerability The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

8 Exposure Exposure refers to the exposure of a system of interest to stimuli that act on that system. This can be readily conceptualised as climate variability and/or the various changes in the climate system that are often of concern to stakeholders: temperature increases, rainfall variability and change (including extremes), or changes in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones.

9 Sensitivity Sensitivity refers to the responsiveness of a system to climate hazards. This is often represented conceptually as a dose-response model the more sensitive a system, the larger the rate or magnitude of an adverse response to a given hazard. Sensitivity may vary considerably from one system, sector or population to another.

10 Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate the potential damage from it, to take advantage of its opportunities, or to cope with its consequences

11 Vulnerability The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. What is the system in EEPSEA mapping? The system is the unit of analysis (UoA).

12 The system or UoA in EEPSEA Mapping A system (UoA) is sub-national region with a spatial administrative boundaries. District in IND, Provinces in PHIL.

13 The system in your mapping can be Illustration in ArcGIS Village

14 Exposure and Sensitivity EXPOSURE SENSITIVITY Potential Impact Both provinces have similar exposure to typhoon, but do they have similar impact? Aurora Pangasinan

15 Exposure and Sensitivity EXPOSURE SENSITIVITY Potential Impact Pangasinan is more sensitive as it has more people, its potential adverse impact is higher Aurora Pangasinan

16 Exposure and Sensitivity Exposure Sensitivity Heat wave % population > 65 yrs old % population < 4 yrs old Drought Extent of agriculture Landslide Population density Sea level lrise Et Extentt of coastal structure t Population density Et Extent tof flow-land l agriculture

17 EXPOSURE AND SENSITIVITY IN EEPSEA MAPPING

18 Climatic Hazards Tropical Cyclones Drought Flood Landslide Sea level rise

19 Tropical Cyclones Laos Legend Annual Cyclone Frequency Thailand Vietnam Philippines High : Low : Cambodia Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from ) Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

20 Drought Laos Legend Annual Drought Frequency Thailand Vietnam Philippines High : Low : 0 Cambodia Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Flood frequency (event per year from ) Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

21 Flood Laos Legend Annual Flood Frequency Thailand Vietnam Philippines High : Low : 0 Cambodia Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Drought frequency (event per year from ) Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

22 Landslide Laos Thailand Vietnam Philippines Legend Landslide Hazard Cambodia 10 Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Landslide Exposure Index Source: UNEP-PREVIEW

23 Sea Level Rise Laos Legend Sea Level Rise (5m) Thailand Vietnam Philippines Cambodia Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone) Source: CRESIS

24 Data source: UNEP

25 Data Source: CreSIS (SLR)

26 All Climate Hazards Index Legend Laos Multiple Climate Hazard Index Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers All hazards Index Source: Authors calculation

27 Sensitivity Population Density Extent of Protected Area

28 Population Density Legend Laos Thailand Vietnam Philippines Population Density High : Low : 0 Cambodia Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Population Density (persons per km square) Source: CIESIN

29 Extent of Protected Areas Laos Thailand Vietnam Philippines Legend Protected Areas Cambodia Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers National Protected Areas Source: WWF

30 Sensitivity Legend Laos Sensitivity Index Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Index of sensitivity Source: Authors calculation

31 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY

32 Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), to moderate the potential damage from it, to take advantage of its opportunities, or to cope with its consequences

33 IPCC (2001) Determinants of adaptive capacity: 1. Economic Resources 2. Technology 3. Information and Skills 4. Infrastructure re 5. Institutions 6. Equity

34 Yohe and Tol (2002) Determinants of adaptive capacity: 1. The range of available technological l options for adaptation 2. The availability of resources and their distribution across the population 3. The structure of critical institutions, the derivative allocation of decision- making authority, and the decision criteria that would be employed 4. The stock of human capital including education and personal security 5. The stock of social capital including the definition of property rights 6. The system's access to risk spreading processes 7. The ability of decision-makers to manage information, the processes by which these decision-makers determine which information is credible, and the credibility of the decision-makers, themselves, and 8. The public's perceived attribution of the source of stress and the significance of exposure to its local manifestations. [ ] adaptive capacity varies significantly from system to system [..] adaptive capacity varies significantly from system to system, sector to sector and region to region. Indeed, the determinants of adaptive capacity include a variety of system, sector, and location specific characteristics

35 Adaptive Capacity - EEPSEA Socioeconomis Human Development Index (Income, Longevity, Education) Poverty Incidence Inequality Technology Electricity Coverage Extent of Irrigation Extent of Irrigation Infrastructure t Road Density Communication

36 Adaptive Capacity Human Development Index Standard of Living Longevity 1/3 1/3 SOCIO-ECONOMICS Education 1/3 Poverty Incidence 0.28 Income Inequality ADAPTIVE CAPACITY a j Electricity Coverage 0.53 Extent of Irrigation 0.47 TECHNOLOGY 0.25 Road Density 0.50 Communication 0.50 INFRASTRUCTURE 0.25 Vulnerability, V j = (1/3) e j + (1/3) s j + (1/3) a j

37 Data source UNDP s HDI country reports Country s statistics office (mostly online) Household socio-economics survey (for Indonesia and Laos) Others. For your local mapping = CBMS data.

38 Human Development Index Legend Laos Human Development Index Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Human Development Index Source: various sources and author s calculation

39 Poverty Incidence Legend Laos Poverty Incidence Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Poverty incidences (percent of poor population, national poverty line) Source: various sources and author s calculation

40 Electricity Coverage Laos Thailand Philippines Legend Electricity Coverage Vietnam Cambodia Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Electricity Coverage (% of households with access) Source: various sources

41 Adaptive Capacity Legend Laos Adaptive Capacity Index Cambodia Vietnam Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia ,100 Kilometers Index of Adaptive Capacity Source: Authors calculation

42 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAPPING Climatic Hazards Vulnerability to CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC FRAMEWORK

43 Climate Change Vulnerability Legend Climate change vulnerability Kilometers Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Source: Author s calculation

44 Vulnerable Regions (SEA std) Legend Vulnerable regions (SEA Standard) Milidly vulnerable ( ) Moderately Vulnerable ( ) Highely Vulnerable ( ) Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok, Mondolkiri, Mekong Delta, are among the most vulnerable regions in SEA Kilometers Vulnerable regions: Areas falling in the 4 th quartile Source: Author s calculation

45 LOCAL LEVEL VULNERABILITY MAPPING

46 Climate change impact varies regions

47 Projected major impacts by sectors Source: UNDP (2011)

48 Projected major impacts by sectors Source: UNDP (2011)

49 Local level vulnerability mapping Objective To assess the vulnerability of communities to climate change impact Relevance To help resource allocation problems in adaptation options Scope Assess climate change vulnerability of villages in one districts

50 Framework and Method Vulnerability is a function of exposure, sensitivity, i i and adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001; EEPSEA, 2010) V = f(e, S, A) Unit of analysis = villages Scope = district (2-level lsub-national administration) Climate-change related exposure = vary by districts, can be one kind of exposure or multiple l exposures. Sensitivity = can be exposure-specifics Adaptive capacity = can be general or exposure specific

51 Constructing Composite Indicators of climate change vulnerability Next presentation