Global Scan of World Energy Trends
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- Arnold Williams
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1 Global Scan of World Energy Trends Why Conduct a Global Scan? Importance of questioning, understanding our assumptions for energy outlooks implications for energy security First rule of scenario analysis, understand the present Backcasting reveals errors in data and analysis that influence forward thinking Models are static, behavior is dynamic Technology, innovation are difficult to predict Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 2 -
2 Impact of Assumptions on Forecasts 1999$/BB U.S. DOE Annual Outlooks ACTUAL Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 3-2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Cumulative U.S. Oil & Gas Production, MMBOE (Includes Alaska) GTL? Offshore below 1,ft 4-d seismic, On a BOE basis, production offshore below has not yet peaked 5,ft 3-d seismic, horizontal drilling, measurement while drilling, offshore below 1,ft Pipeline trenching and welding, compression, pressure control, metering; national grid develops Directional drilling, offshore below 25ft water depth Long-line pipeline transmission Advances in drilling, early seismic, shallow offshore E&P Oil discovered at Spindletop (Texas), 191 Oil discovered in Titusville, Pennsylvania, 1859; natural gas replaces town gas, 187s U.S. Example: Impact of Technology and Frameworks Hydrates? IT Pathway Mainframes Minis Micros Work Stations? Not to scale Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 4 -
3 OECD and Non-OECD Countries Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Non-OECD 5 Source: NPC 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Economic Growth Patterns Are Shifting 23 Global GDP 26 / 23 ~ $ 4 / 8 Trillion 26 Russia/Caspian Europe North America Middle East Asia Pacific South America Africa ILLUSTRATIVE PROJECTION Source EIA, IEA & Other Outlooks OECD Non-OECD Source: NPC 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 6 -
4 Change is Slow / Difficult Source: World Energy Outlook 27, IEA Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Range of Projections: Growing Demand QUADRILLION BTU PER YEAR EIA HIGH EIA REF IEA REF IEA ALT POLICY IEA LOW Source: NPC 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 8 -
5 ... And Energy Demand Growth Follows QUADRILLION BTU PER YEAR History Projections OECD Non-OECD Source: NPC 27 9 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Will Remain Indispensable QUADRILLION BTU 445 QUADRILLION BTU 678 QUADRILLION BTU NATURAL GAS OIL COAL WIND / SOLAR / GEOTHERMAL HYDRO NUCLEAR BIOMASS Source: NPC 27 Source: IEA REFERENCE CASE Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 1-1
6 Energy Consumption Mix in South Asia Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Diversification of energy sources Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
7 Total Energy Resources Annual World Consumption Oil Gas Coal Trillion Barrels Uranium Coal Wind Hydro Annual Solar Energy Source: Craig, Cunningham and Saigo. Photosynthesis Source: NPC 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Global Oil Trade 2 23 EXPANDING FLOW TRENDS Source: NPC Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
8 Global LNG Trade 2 23 EXPANDING FLOW TRENDS Source: NPC Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Supply Vulnerability Zones Bosporus Suez Canal / Sumed Panama Canal Red Sea Strait of Hormuz Strait of Malacca Source: NPC 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
9 Share of Net Imports Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Net imports (ES2) & Net oil imports (ES3) dependency Source: CEE calculations and APERC. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
10 World Crude Oil Strategic Stocks, 26 Million Barrels 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, United States France Germany Other OECD Europe Japan South Korea Industry Government-Controlled Source: EIA International Petroleum (Oil) Stocks Data Global Source: Energy EIA Markets International Trade Petroleum Programme (Oil) Stocks - Data 19 - Energy Efficiency Existing Technology Coal-fired power plant: ~35% Combined Cycle Gas Turbine: ~55% Transmission & distribution: 5-1% v 3% loss Hummer: ~8 mpg v Tata Nano: ~47 mpg CFL v incandescent: 75% less electricity Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 2 -
11 Energy Efficiency What Can Change the Equation? Technologies and price signals to facilitate demand-side response New energy conversion technologies New fuel sources New grid materials (superconducting) Facilitating frameworks to support market signals, choice, and innovation Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Driving Forces Energy and economy
12 State of the World Energy is necessary for economic growth Energy resources and industries have been considered strategic and/or national Energy industries have been vertically integrated But, there is deregulation or restructuring Fossil fuels have been the major source for generating energy, but These resources are increasingly concentrated in politically sensitive parts of the world Burning of these fuels are increasingly blamed for a variety of environmental problems Global Energy Markets Trade Programme State of the World How to address environmental concerns in a more competitive industry while fueling economic and social development? Fossil fuels-based technologies have cost advantages to clean alternatives Developing economies want to use these technologies and their fossil resources Developed economies do not want to risk slow-down with heavy regulation Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
13 Economic Growth Requires Energy 15 Correlation =.86 Quads , 1,25 1,5 1,75 2, GDP (Billions of 1995$) 14 Countries (excluded five richest and/or largest energy users) Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Energy per Capita Increases with Wealth MMBtu countries GDP per capita (1, 1995$) Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
14 Energy Intensity Decreases with Wealth EI GDP per capita (1, 1995$) Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Energy Intensity & Income Figure 1: Energy Intensity by Income Grouping (1995).6.5 Energy Intensity kg oil eq. per $GDP % 22% 41% 19% 3% 51% 11% 34% 55% Low Lower Middle Upper Middle High Income Classification GDP per capita 1985 international $ Sample of 83 countries Sources: World Bank Development Indicators, Penn World Tables 3% 31% 65% Share of GDP Agriculture Industry Services Medlock & Soligo (Energy Journal, 21) Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
15 Energy Intensity Source: EIA, WB income groups Btu per $GDP Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Energy Disparity I Consumption per capita (MMBtu) North America C & S America Europe Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia & Oceania World Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 3 -
16 Energy consumption per capita Source: EIA, WB income groups MMBtu Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Energy Disparity II Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
17 Oil consumption per capita Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Oil Consumption Intensity Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
18 Oil Affordability Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Natural gas consumption per capita Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
19 Driving Forces Global distribution of energy resources relative to demand Source: Robert L. Bradley Jr. Various publications and presentations. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
20 Hydrocarbon usage & potential (EJ) Exa = 1 18 Joules.1 Btu Additional Occurrences Consumption 1358 Resource Base Source for data: IPCC 21 Mitigation, p. 236 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Hydrocarbon Resources Resources depending on the level of characterization, technology and market conditions will be produced with a given level of uncertainty Joint SPE, AAPG, SPEE Classification Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 4 -
21 World Oil Reserves WORLD OPEC Middle East Former Soviet Union Africa End 26 End 2 End 199 End 198 North America USA South & Central America Asia Pacific , 1,1 1,2 1,3 Billions of Barrels Proved reserves with current technology and prices. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. OPEC includes Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia, Venezuela, and Angola since 26. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Oil Resources 25 Billion Barrels <In Place> Canada Venezuela Saudi Arabia Russia USA Iran Iraq Kuwait UAE Nigeria Brazil Mexico Libya China Norway Algeria Great Britian Qatar Angola Australia India Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
22 World Oil Producing Regions OPEC Middle East North America USA Africa Asia Pacific FSU South & Central America Million b/d Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 27. OPEC includes Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia, Venezuela, and Angola since 26. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Major oil trade movements Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
23 World Oil Production Thousand b/ 9 8 Non-OPEC OPEC Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Risks Reflected in Range of Production Projections 14 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY OIL IEA Medium Term Outlook EIA Ref Case IOC average Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) Source: NPC 27 * Source: NPC Data Warehouse. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
24 World Crude Oil Replenishment (billion barrels) Reserves Production 27 Reserves Global Energy Markets Trade Programme World Oil Consuming Regions OECD North America USA Asia Pacific Europe South & Central America Middle East FSU Africa Million b/d Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
25 World Oil Demand Thousand b/ 9 8 Non-OECD 7 OECD Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. OECD region includes all of Western Europe; Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic; Turkey; Australia and New Zealand; Japan and South Korea; North America. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme World Gas Reserves World Middle East USA Asia Pacific End 26 End 2 End 199 Europe Trillion Cubic Feet Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 5 -
26 World Gas Producing Regions WORLD USA Europe Middle East South & Central America Trillion CF Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Major natural gas trade movements Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
27 World Natural Gas Production Bcf/d 15 Rest of World FSU U.S. Russian production is 85% of FSU Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Range of Global Supply Projections Gas 6 - BILLION CUBIC FEET PER DAY EIA REF. 452 IEA REF. 38 HISTORICAL TREND - l 198 l 199 l 2 l 21 l 22 l 23 Source: NPC Survey for the Oil & Gas Study. Source: NPC Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
28 Regional Gas Supply Outlooks Source: NPC Global Energy Markets Trade Programme World Natural Gas Replenishment (trillion cubic feet) Reserves Production 27 Reserves Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
29 World Gas Consuming Regions OECD USA Europe Middle East Africa Trillion CF Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme World Natural Gas Demand Rest of World FSU Rest of OECD U.S. Bcf Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
30 Proved coal reserves at end 26 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Coal Supply Projections (All Forecasts Normalized to 6.5 BST in 25) Short Tons (Billions) EIA-Ref IEA-Ref IEA-Alt ASPO CCSP-IGSM-Ref CCSP-IGSM-L1 CCSP-Merge-Ref CCSP-Merge-L1 CCSP-MiniCam-Ref CCSP-MiniCam-L1 Oakridge HGSS Oakridge LGSS EC WETO Ref EC WETO C Constr EC WETO H2 Source: NPC 27 6 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 6 -
31 World Coal Producing Regions Asia Pacific USA FSU South & Central America Million Tons Oil Equivalent Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme World Coal Consuming Regions OECD North America Europe Africa Middle East Million Tons Oil Equivalent Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 27. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
32 World Coal Replenishment (billion tons) Reserves Production Reserves Global Energy Markets Trade Programme World Electricity Hydro 17% Nuclear 15% Other 2% Hydro 2% Nuclear 1% Other 2% Thermal 66% Thermal 68% 25 Total = 17,351 Billion Kwh 25 Total = 3,872 GW Source: U.S. EIA Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
33 World Net Thermal Electricity Producing Regions North America Asia & Oceania Eurasia Europe Africa Middle East South & Central America Source: EIA TWh Global Energy Markets Trade Programme World Net Hydroelectric Producing Regions North America Europe Asia & Oceania South & Central America Eurasia Africa Middle East TWh Source: EIA Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
34 World Net Nuclear Producing Regions Europe North America Asia & Oceania Eurasia Africa South & Central America Middle East TWh Source: EIA Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Nuclear Power Outlook Source: NPC 27 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
35 Renewable Generation Europe North America Asia & Oceania South & Central America TWh Source: EIA Global Energy Markets Trade Programme World Wind Power Installed Capacity Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 7 -
36 Future of Wind Power Source: Global Wind Energy Outlook 26, GWEC Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Solar Technology Sol1 Solar Tower near Seville, Spain 624 solar mirrors (heliostats) concentrate the sun at the top of a 35 storey tower 11 MW Solar Thermal CA, USA MW Several more under construction Expectation: 5,8 MW of new capacity by 212 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
37 Global Cumulative PV Capacity Source: Solar Generation IV 27, European Photovoltaic Industry Association Global Energy Markets Trade Programme U.S. Import and Export Shipments of Solar Thermal Collectors sqft Imports Exports Source: EIA Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
38 U.S. Shipments of Photovoltaic Cells and Modules 21, 18, Peak kw Source: EIA 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Driving Forces Key factors impacting energy demand
39 The Asian Gulp : Asia is Swing Demand 25, 2, Asia Pacific % Asia 3% 25% Thousands b 15, 1, 2% 15% 1% Percent of Wor 5, 5% % Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 24 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Development means cars! Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
40 Transport as Percentage of Delivered Oil Consumption, 23 Other Central and South America, 46.9% Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 41.3% South Korea, 4.% Middle East, 38.9% China, 36.% India, 29.2% Other Non-OECD Asia, 49.6% Russia, 4.% Japan, 38.1% OECD Europe, 56.3% Brazil, 53.5% Africa, 52.7% Canada, 51.2% Mexico, 48.7% Australia/New Zealand, 75.% U.S., 67.4% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Source: NCEP Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Source: - 79???- Light Duty Vehicle Trends Light Duty Fleet Light Duty Fuels Demand Millions 15 Average Growth/Yr % MBD 35 3 Average Growth/Yr % Non-OECD 5.1% Advanced ICE/Hybrid % Non-OECD 3 1.% OECD 1 5.% OECD Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 8 -
41 Transportation Fuel Demand Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook Global Energy Markets Trade Programme MBD 12 1 Global Liquids Demand by Sector Average Growth/Yr % Rail Marine 8 1.8% Transportation Light Duty Vehicles Aviation 6 Heavy Duty Vehicles % Industrial.2% -.2% Res/Comm Power Generation ~ 65 MBD in 23 Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
42 Electricity is Vital for Economic Development Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook Global Energy Markets Trade Programme What Fuel to Use for Generation? Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
43 Installed generation capacity Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Driving Forces Key factors impacting energy supply
44 Energy Sector Investment Requirements: Who Will Invest? Total investment: 16 trillion dollars E&D 72% 46% Power generation Refining Other 13% 15% Oil 19% Electricity 6% 54% T&D E&D LNG Chain T&D and Storage 55% 8% 37% Gas 19% Coal 2% 88% Mining Source: IEA Global Energy Investment Outlook 23 12% Shipping and ports Cost inflation: $21.9 trillion is the new estimate. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Access to Hydrocarbon Resources is Becoming Increasingly Constrained Concession 21% Ira q 1% National companies only (S a u d i Ara b ia, Kuwait, Mexico) 35% Production sharing 12% Limited access - National companies 22% 1,32 billion barrels Source: IEA Global Energy Investment Outlook 23 Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
45 World Oil Surplus Production Capacity Millions of Barrels per Day Average Source: EIA Short-term energy outlook, Sep6 25 Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 26 Global Source: Energy Short-Term Markets Energy Trade Outlook, Programme September $18 $16 $14 Price Volatility U.S. Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Low Sulfur Spot Price FOB ($/MMBtu) U.S. Gulf Coast No. 2 Heating Oil Spot Price FOB ($/MMBtu) U.S. Gulf Coast Residual Fuel Oil 1. % Sulfur LP Spot Price CIF ($/MMBtu) Henry Hub Monthly Average Spot Price ($/MMBtu) 25 2 $/MMBtu $12 $1 $8 $6 Actual Ratio, Crude Oil:Gas Prices 15 1 Oil:Natural Gas Price Ratio $4 5 $2 Rough 6:1 heat value ratio $ Feb-89 Feb-9 Feb-91 Feb-92 Feb-93 Feb-94 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb- Feb-1 Feb-2 Feb-3 Feb-4 Feb-5 Feb-6 Feb-7 Sources: U.S. EIA; NYMEX Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 9 -
46 Role of financial trading $4, $3,5 $Billion $3, $2,5 $2, $1,5 $1, $5 Total physical crude Total futures WTI crude Low-Range Notional Total Trade Value High-Range Notional Total Trade Value $ Source: ESAI Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Source: -ESAI 91 - Climate Change Dominates Environmental Uncertainties CO2 Emissions Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
47 Alternatives Many options available but technologies remain Incremental (wind, GTL, NGV) Expensive (solar) Experimental (wave power, biofuels from algae or cellulosic ethanol) Uncertain with respect to environmental impacts (corn ethanol) Global Energy Markets Trade Programme % of Emissions Growth in Industrializing Regions BILLION METRIC TONS GLOBAL CO 2 EMISSIONS OECD Non-OECD Build blue and then yellow Source: EIA 26 Source: NPC Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
48 6, 5, 5,289 Capital Costs Source: Kyoto Report Energy Information Administration (EIA) 4, 3, 3,185 2, 2,25 1,91 1,55 1,476 1,44 1, 1,26 1, Municipal Solid Waste Solar Photovoltaic Geothermal Solar Thermal Nuclear Biomass Fuel Cell Advanced Coal Pulverized Coal Oil/Gas Stream Wind Combined-Cycle (Advanced) Combined-Cycle (Conventional) Combustion Turbine (Advanced) Combustion Turbine (Conventional) With recent cost inflation, these costs have probably increased about 5% Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Capital Costs of Different Generation Technologies Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Wind $1,- $1,5 per kwe $4-$8 per kwe $1,- $2, per kwe $1,- $2, per kwe Source: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity Update, by IEA and NEA With recent cost inflation, these costs have probably increased about 5% Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
49 Source: The Cost of Generating Electricity, a study carried out by PB Power for the Royal Academy of Engineering, March 24. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme Source: The Cost of Generating Electricity, a study carried out by PB Power for the Royal Academy of Engineering, March 24. Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
50 Levelized Costs of Different Generation Technologies at 1% discount Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Micro Hydro Solar CHP $35-6 per MWh $4-63 per MWh $3-5 per MWh $45-14 per MWh $65-1 per MWh $2 (24% avail) $3-7 per MWh Inv 5% O&M 15% Fuel 35% Inv 2% O&M 7% Fuel 73% Inv 7% O&M 2% Fuel 1% O&M 13-4% Natural gas price range of $3.5-$4.5 per MMBtu Source: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity Update, by IEA and NEA Global Energy Markets Trade Programme
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