What do changing weather patterns mean to Greater KC?

Transcription

1 CHRISTOPHER J. ANDERSON Iowa State University What do changing weather patterns mean to Greater KC? MARC Climate Resilience Workshop November 12, 2015

2 Climate Change in Kansas City isn t like Climate Change on TV Spring rainfall increase Summer humidity increase Unusually hot summer weeks Fewer cold winters

3 EXCESSIVE SPRING RAINFALL IS MORE FREQUENT Excessive spring rainfall that occurred 1-in-10-year prior to 1980 has since occurred 1-in-6-year. C. Anderson, 2015

4 HOW CO 2 INCREASE AND MIDWEST RAINFALL ARE LINKED ISU Online Master s in Agronomy, 2015

5 But isn t it just. K. Hayhoe, First International Transportation Conference, 2015

6 The sun has a perfect alibi K. Hayhoe, First International Transportation Conference, 2015

7 K. Hayhoe, First International Transportation Conference, 2015 Could it be El Niño or natural cycles? THE OCEAN THE ATMOSPHERE

8 What did the 97/98 El Niño look like? ENSO 3.4 INDEX PEAKED AT 2.5 o C K. Hayhoe, First International Transportation Conference, 2015

9 What s happening now? K. Hayhoe, First International Transportation Conference, 2015

10 K. Hayhoe, First International Transportation Conference, 2015 But no - the entire planet is warming OCEAN ATMOSPHERE, LAND AND ICE

11 Climate Change is an observation not a belief. Photo:

12 Observed climate change in Lawrence In , Lawrence experienced 4 in the top 10 years for number of days > It averaged 13% more days with rainfall 1.25 compared to the period. It experienced a 40% increase in events 2.00 and 118% increase for The frequency of 5-day and 15-day periods with unusually high rainfall ( 6.25 and 9.0, respectively) has also increased over the past few decades, compared to the long-term trend. Fewer cool summers due to increase in minimum temperature. Milder winter with fewer sub-zero days

13 What we believe are the defining characteristics of our communities will determine our response to climate change.

14 American Planning Association Guidelines on Climate Change 1. Policy responses to climate change need to be based on the best possible science. Because climate change is bringing about previously unrecorded conditions, projections based on new scientific modeling are the best way to anticipate and respond. 2. Climate change is highly regional and even local in nature. Planners must be aware of what the future holds for their particular geographic region and formulate their strategies accordingly. 3. Adapting to climate change is just as important as mitigating it. 4. Planners need to communicate about climate change in new and different ways. Planners will need new communication tools to explain climate change issues and maintain the focus on long-term adaptation and mitigation responses.

15 National Research Council, Climate Stabilization Targets Scenarios of Human Greenhouse Gas Emissions Business as Usual Moderate GHG Reduction Deep GHG Reduction Unobtainable

16 Goal: Provide guidance on climate change for municipal department budget and strategic planning. Interview municipal department directors to identify damaging weather events and weather concerns Integrate historical climate data available from state climatologists with climate projection data Summarize data in a document readable and usable by municipal staff/

17 An essential element in planning is confidence in direction of change to set planning scenarios Climate in the Heartland, 2015

18 GHG reduction can reduce severity of rainfall change ClimateLOOK by Climate Monkeys LLC

19 GHG reduction can reduce severity of rainfall change ClimateLOOK by Climate Monkeys LLC

20 GHG reduction may not reduce severity of drought ClimateLOOK by Climate Monkeys LLC

21 GHG reduction will reduce temperature change ClimateLOOK by Climate Monkeys LLC

22 GHG reduction will reduce severity of heat waves ClimateLOOK by Climate Monkeys LLC

23 Climate in the Heartland, 2015 Climate Change Data for Lawrence Parks and Recreation Public Health Utilities -- Energy Water Resouce Engineering Hazard Mitigation Road Maintenance

24 Solutions Solution: Structured Expert Judgement for regional storm water planning. Days > 1.25 : 7 days 9 days Ann. Max 1-day: Ann. Max. 5-day:

25 Solutions Ann. Temp: 56.3 O F 62.1 O F; Ann. Pcp: ; Days T>100 O F : 3 days 32 days Solution: Individual municipalities could connect Hayhoe data to EPA CREAT model.

26 Solutions Solution: Incentives to homeowners to hold water in rain barrels, rain gardens, and deeper soils.

27 Solutions One engineering design approach or hazard mitigation approach can be to evaluate return intervals by expected structure lifetime or planning horizon.

28 Solutions Solution: Solar Gardens Cooling Degree Days Heating Degree Days Days T > 100 O F 3 32 Colby, Kansas April 23, 2015 Solar for Low Income:

29 Solutions Parks and Recreation Solution: Urban Forests Last Spring Frost April 3 March 20 First Fall Frost Oct 11 Nov 7 Days T > 100 O F 3 32 Consecutive Dry Days Annual Precipitation ForestAgenda/ChicagosUrbanForestAgenda2009.pdf

30 What do Changing Weather Patterns mean for Greater KC? No regrets adaptation in KC starts with water management. Pride in the beauty, commercial foundation, and abundance of water in KC could be an opening to conversation urging the use of climate projections in water management planning. Temperature effects are expected to become apparent over the next years. Diversification of electricity generation can provide entrepreneurial growth while improving resilience of low income population. Urban forests can provide mitigation and adaptation.