New Jersey Natural Gas Market Update
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1 March 25, 2015 Mullica Hill, NJ New Jersey Natural Gas Market Update Presentation to: SNJDC Natural Gas Seminar Tom Kiley Northeast Gas Association
2 Issues Regional Market Developments New Jersey Gas Market Demand & Supply
3 Continued on NGA web site
4 About NGA Non-profit trade association Local gas utilities (LDCs) serving New England, New York, and New Jersey Several interstate pipeline companies LNG importers (Distrigas, Repsol) and LNG trucking companies Over 200 associate member companies, from industry suppliers and contractors to electric grid operators
5 A Cold 2015 Mid-Atl. Normal Mid-Atl. Actual New Eng. Normal New Eng. Actual Heating Degree Days, Nov Feb Coldest February in over 2 decades, and 3 rd coldest February in NJ since Average temp. of 22 degrees, more than 11 degrees colder than average. Monthly cold record remains Feb at 17.9 degree average Source: U.S. NOAA. Data thru Feb. 28, Consistent throughput, esp. Jan-Feb High demand on system infrastructure
6 New Peak Day Set by Gas Utilities in Feb. South Jersey Gas new sendout record on Feb. 15, 2015 New Jersey Natural Gas new sendout record on Feb. 15, 2015 PSE&G 2 nd highest sendout on Feb. 15, 2015 New England natural gas utilities combined new sendout record on Feb. 15, 2015
7 New Records for Pipeline Throughput: AGT 18 of Top 25 Days on Algonquin Pipeline Set this Winter Chart: Spectra Energy
8 Market Prices Less Volatile than Last Winter but still higher than national average Chart: U.S. FERC, March 2015
9 Short-Term Price Outlook: EIA Henry Hub Natural Gas Price dollars per million Btu Historical spot price STEO forecast price Jan 2014 Jul 2014 Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the 5 trading days ending Mar. 5, Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts. Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March Source: U.S. EIA, March 2015
10 Natural Gas Retains a Price Advantage 2,500 Average Consumer Expenditures for Heating Fuels, $, ,000 1,500 1,000 Natural Gas Heating Oil Source: U.S. EIA, Mar. 10, Natural gas data is for Northeast states of CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT. Heating oil is U.S. average.
11 New Jersey Natural Gas Market
12 Overview Natural Gas Use in NJ Primary energy: 30% Electric generation capacity: 54% % of households with gas as main heating fuel: 74% Annual consumption: 681 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas.
13 Demand Outlook and Supply Opportunities
14 Home Heating Market New Jersey statewide has strong gas share for home heating: 74% (compared to 56% in NY and 38% in New England). NJ home heating shares: gas, 74%; oil, 10%; electric, 12% Still potential for further residential sector growth notably in southern part of state
15 Proposed Power Plants by Fuel, Northeast NEW JERSEY, 2014 Queued Capacity by Fuel Type, Percentage (In-State Only) Approx. 7,776 MW 95 95% NEW YORK ISO SYSTEM, 2014 Proposed Power Projects by Fuel Type Megawatts 70% 20 0 Natural Gas Wind Solar Other Source: ISO-NE Source: NY ISO Source: PJM, March 2015 GENERATOR PROPOSALS IN THE ISO NEW ENGLAND QUEUE Percentage, 2015 Other, 1 Wind, 36 Natural Gas, 63 63%
16 Interstate Pipelines Algonquin Gas Transmission and Texas Eastern Transmission, subsidiaries of Spectra Energy. Columbia Transmission, a subsidiary of NiSource. Dominion Transmission Tennessee Gas Pipeline Company, a subsidiary of Kinder Morgan. Transcontinental Pipeline, a subsidiary of Williams.
17 Marcellus Shale Production: Still Robust 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Marcellus Production, , Mcf/d - Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Source: U.S. EIA, 7-14 Source: U.S. EIA, 3-15
18 Proposed Pipeline Projects National Fuel / Empire, Tuscarora Lateral National Fuel / Empire, Northern Access 2015 & 2016 Tennessee, Niagara Expansion Prepared by NGA, based on publicly available information. Project locations approximate. As of Iroquois, Wright Interconnect Williams & Cabot, Constitution Pipeline Iroquois, South to North Tennessee, Northeast Energy Direct VERMONT Tennessee, Connecticut Expansion PNGTS, C2C Spectra, Atlantic Bridge Spectra/ Eversource Energy/National Grid, Access Northeast Spectra, AIM Millennium, Corning to Rockland Dominion, New Market Project Columbia, East Side Expansion Project PennEast Project Williams/Transco, Garden State Expansion Project Williams, Rockaway Lateral
19 East Side Expansion Project: Columbia Gas / NiSource Project Scope: The project will involve the installation of two natural gas pipelines with approximately 9.5 miles of pipeline in Chester County, PA and 9.5 miles of pipeline in Gloucester County, NJ. Provides up to 312,000 Dth/d. Customers: Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation, New Jersey Natural Gas Company, Southwestern Energy Services Company, South Jersey Gas Company, and South Jersey Resources Group, LLC Project Status: Received FERC Certificate, Dec Planned In-Service Date November 2015 Map: Columbia Gas Transmission
20 Garden State Expansion: Transco/Williams Project Scope: Provide up to 180,000 dekatherms per day of natural gas service in two phases to a new delivery point with New Jersey Natural Gas in Burlington County, N.J. Installation of new compression and meter/regulation station; no pipeline expansion required. Customer: New Jersey Natural Gas Project Status: FERC filing, Feb., 2015 Est. Phase I in-service: Nov Est. Phase 2 in-service: Nov Map: Transco/Williams
21 PennEast Pipeline Project Project Scope: Provide up to 1 Bcf/d to move Marcellus production to customers in PA and NJ. Proposed 110-mile, 36 pipeline. Project Partners: AGL Resources, NJR Pipeline Company, a subsidiary of New Jersey Resources, PSE&G Power, Spectra Energy Partners, South Jersey Industries, UGI Energy Services (UGIES), a subsidiary of UGI Corporation. Project Status: Open season held, Aug In FERC pre-filing process, Oct Proposed in-service: 2018 Map: PennEast
22 NJ Leads the Region in Gas Efficiency Program Investments
23 System Safety / Infrastructure Enhancements Primary focus of federal and state oversight agencies, along with addressing methane emissions. NJ gas utilities working with BPU to implement storm resilience programs and accelerate replacement of older pipeline system components.
24 Northeast Market Opportunity Northeast region remains highest-priced U.S. region for energy Traditionally at a distance from gas resource fields now very close thanks to Marcellus Market demand remains strong for gas for home heating, power gen and potentially transportation Pipeline capacity constraints in Northeast are leading to numerous infrastructure proposals, to increase access to Marcellus gas.
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