OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIAN CONVENTIONAL POWER GENERATION

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1 THE LOCAL EXPERTS RUSSIA CEE CHINA MIDDLE EAST WESTERN EUROPE INDIA KOREA SOUTH EAST ASIA JAPAN OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIAN CONVENTIONAL POWER GENERATION SECTOR OVERVIEW ON BEHALF OF MAKE IN INDIA MITTELSTAND (MIIM) HAMBURG, DECEMBER 2016 EAC- EURO ASIA CONSULTING PARTG MUNICH / SHANGHAI / MUMBAI / MOSCOW EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 1

2 THE LOCAL EXPERTS RUSSIA CEE CHINA MIDDLE EAST WESTERN EUROPE INDIA KOREA SOUTH EAST ASIA JAPAN CONTENTS A. RECAP ON POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOT B. OPPORTUNITIES IN THE THERMAL POWER SECTOR 2 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 2

3 THE LOCAL EXPERTS RUSSIA CEE CHINA MIDDLE EAST WESTERN EUROPE INDIA KOREA SOUTH EAST ASIA JAPAN CONTENTS A. RECAP ON POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOT B. OPPORTUNITIES IN THE THERMAL POWER SECTOR 3 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 3

4 POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW COMPARISON WITH GLOBAL PEERS India is the 3 rd largest producer of electricity and 4 th largest in terms of installed capacities; Power infrastructure augmentation to be the backbone of India s sustainable growth plans India is expected to be amongst the fastest growing economies in the world 3 rd largest electricity producer and 4 th largest in terms of installed power gen. capacities Power demand to be driven by Focus on industrialization (Make in India initiative) Changing demographic structure Electrification drive to ensure Power for All Continued investments in power infrastructure augmentation is an imperative to achieve high growth aspirations Source: EAC Research 4 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 4

5 THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW India is the 3 rd largest producer of electricity with current power installed capacity of over 300 GW and a peak power deficit of 3.2% THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR: 307 GW (OCTOBER, 2016) POWER SECTOR CHARACTERISTICS Fuel Source (% share) Coal (61 %) Gas (8 %) Oil (0.03 %) Water Solar, Wind, Biomass etc. Radioactive elements Power Generation (% of total capacity) Thermal Power (69%) Hydro power (14 %) Renewable Energy 1) (15%) Nuclear Power (2 %) T&D 2) Utilities CTU 4) and STU 5) (94%) Pvt Transmission (6%) Distributor channels SDU 3) (87%) Pvt. Distribution Utilities (13%) End-Users Industrial (44%) Residential/ Domestic (23%) Agriculture (18%) Commercial (8%) Others (7%) Coal based power plants dominates generation Huge AT&C 6) losses of ~22% Poor financial health of SDUs 3) resulting in reduced fund availability for additional power purchase frequent load shedding Energy deficit in India has reduced from 8.5% in FY 12 to 2.1% in FY 16 the target is to transform India into an energy surplus country by FY 20 The peak power deficit reduced from 10.6% in FY 12 to 3.2% in FY 16 Low per capita power consumption (1075 kwh); China s per capita power consumption is estimated at over 3900 kwh 1) Includes solar power, wind power, bio-mass, small hydro (<25 MW) etc 2) Transmission and Distribution 3) State Distribution Utilities 4) Central Transmission Utility 5) State Transmission Utility 6) Aggregate Technical and Commercial 5 Source: CEA, MOSPI, EAC Research EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 5

6 THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR OVERVIEW India has been plagued with energy and peak power deficit resulting in frequent load shedding and power failures; India plans to overcome this situation with accelerated generation capacity augmentation POWER GENERATION INSTALLED CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT (GW) ENERGY AND PEAK POWER DEFICIT (%) PER CAPITA POWER CONSUMPTION (KWH/P.A) % 9% * 2022p 2.6% -3.6% 1.1% -8.5% -4.7% -10.6% p , , p 1, p GOVERNMENT FOCUS Ensuring Power for All by 2020 Transform India in to a power surplus country by 2020 Promote rapid power generation capacity augmentation Emphasis on renewable energy (mainly solar and wind) Renewable Source: CEA, EAC Research Conventional Energy Deficit Emphasis on clean/efficient thermal energy (super-critical and USC 1) ) Peak Power Deficit Additional focus on increasing the efficiency of existing power plants Installed generation capacity is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% ( ) whereas the renewable energy capacity is expected to grow at a healthy rate of 31% XX% CAGR 1) Ultra super critical * Data as of Sept EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 6

7 WHAT IS IN STORE FOR CONVENTIONAL POWER GENERATION The government is keen on developing a sustainable energy infrastructure with a clear focus on accelerated renewable energy capacity build program With all the focus on reducing GHG emissions and development of the renewable energy, are there any opportunities in the conventional power generation space? Power generation from renewable energy sources has inherent limitations inconsistent power, seasonality, high dependence on factors beyond human control! Hence for base load power requirements, conventional power generation shall continue to flourish however, at higher efficiencies and with cleaner technologies Source: EAC 7 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 7

8 OVERVIEW OF THE INDIAN CONVENTIONAL POWER GENERATION ~100 GW of capacity addition expected in the conventional power generation sector; coal based generation will continue to dominate the installed capacity share INSTALLED CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT (GW) CAGR ( ) Nuclear 11.6% Hydro 6.8% Thermal 6.5% 8% * 7% Historically, growth in installed capacity has been at a very slow pace; it is expected that the12th five year plan shall be the 1 st period in which India would achieve its target (~88 GW addition) Conventional power accounts for ~85% of installed capacity and approximately 92-93% of electricity produced With government focus on renewable energy, the installed capacity share is expected to drop to ~70% by 2022 Thermal power generation (coal based and gas based) will continue to dominate the energy mix with a share of ~55% of the total installed capacity (535 GW) by 2022; ~40 new coal based plants shall go in operation until 2022 India recently has pledged to cut its GHG 1) emissions intensity by 33 to 35%, relative to 2005 levels, by 2030 (Paris Agreement) Additional emphasis is hence on increasing the efficiency and reducing emissions from the existing thermal power plants as well requiring significant investments XX% 1) Green House Gas CAGR * Data as of Oct 2016 Source: CEA, EAC research 8 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 8

9 THE LOCAL EXPERTS RUSSIA CEE CHINA MIDDLE EAST WESTERN EUROPE INDIA KOREA SOUTH EAST ASIA JAPAN CONTENTS A. RECAP ON POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOT B. OPPORTUNITIES IN THE THERMAL POWER SECTOR 9 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 9

10 INDIA THERMAL POWER GENERATION VALUE CHAIN The power utilities segment continues to be dominated by Govt. entities due to inherent policy and regulatory challenges; equipment mfg. however, is a mix of JV's, MNCs and home grown companies POWER GENERATION Major Utilities Utility Characteristics Central: State: Private: NTPC DVC 2) NLC India Ltd UPRVUNL 3) KPCL 4) TANGEDCO 5) Dominated by government (central and state) companies (~60% share) Private participation plagued by lack of feed stock assurance and PPAs the government is actively taking steps to resolve this (feedstock linkage at the time of bidding; Major Manufacturers Manufacturer Characteristics Prevalent technology transfer and joint venture arrangements Govt. mandate for localization driving investments; FDI up to 100%, under the automatic route, is permitted in the power sector (except atomic energy) Over capacity in the BTG 1) segment currently over 30 GW per annum (avg. requirement between will be ~15 GW p.a) 1) Boiler-Turbine-Generator 2) Damodar Valley Corporation 3) Uttar Pradesh Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Limited 4) Karnataka Power Corporation Limited 5) Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corp. 10 Source: CEA, EAC research EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 10

11 THERMAL POWER GENERATION IN INDIA KEY CHALLENGES Key challenges faced by power producers include lack of fuel linkages, land acquisition, assurance of power off-take; equipment manufacturers are challenged by competition from Chinese manufacturers CHALLENGE IMPACT MITIGATION FUEL LINKAGES POWER OFF-TAKE ASSURANCE LAND ACQUISITION Most private sector power plants are plagued by unavailability of consistent fuel supplies especially gas based generation (avg. PLF 1) of 10-15%) Poor financial health of SDU 2) results in its inability to procure power from private power producers this in turn results in the generation capacities lying idle (low PLF) High land costs coupled with delays in acquisition of large land masses (from multiple sellers) results in high gestation periods and hence costs Adequate measures taken by the government to ensure regular fuel supplies to these power plants Govt. driving Fuel supply agreement of power companies with Coal India Ltd The Ministry of Power launched a scheme UDAY 3) this directs the state governments to absorb the SDU debts in return of bonds expected financial turnaround of SDUs allowing power purchase from private companies The government ensures support on land acquisition at regularized costs from multiple sellers subject to project criticality 1) Plant Load Factor 2) State Distribution Utilities 3) Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana 4) Central electricity Authority 11 Source: EAC research COMPETITION FROM CHINESE MANUFACTURERS Indian equipment manufacturers loose out to Chinese competitors especially on price and delivery lead times CEA 4) has resolved that any equipment or material for Government-funded power projects will have to be procured locally through domestic competitive bidding EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 11

12 OPERATING SCHEME OF PRIVATE THERMAL GENERATION Private thermal generation companies ties up long term PPA with distribution companies for assured off take of power; balance sold as merchant power Natural resource company (coal, gas etc) Long term tie ups for natural resource Generation company Transmission company Distribution company Power off take Merchant Power Long term power purchase agreement (PPA) Power exchange Over the Counter Power traded on exchanges like Indian Energy Exchange Short term sale to distribution company Provides natural resources either coal or gas to fire power plants Tie-ups with fuel suppliers for long term fuel linkage Tie-up with distribution company for assured off take of power Responsible of transmission of power from generating station to distraction station Distributes power to different end-users like agricultural, industrial, commercial and residential segment INDIAN CONTEXT Coal India Ltd. is major coal supplier of in India Private companies like Tata and Adani import from Australia, Indonesia and S. Africa to bridge the shortfall Long term PPA with discom: ~70-80% of installed capacity Merchant power: ~20-30% of installed capacity Power Grid, a government controlled entity transmits power Charges generation companies for transfer Distribute power at differential tariffs to various clients. Agricultural segment is highly subsidized in India Source: EAC research 12 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 12

13 BTG MANUFACTURERS AND CHALLENGES IN INDIA Foreign companies are major technology suppliers; slow pace of capacity addition and competition from China pose challenge to the sector Boiler Turbine-Generator BTG MANUFACTURERS IN INDIA Manufacturer Technology Supplier Installed Capacity (GW) BHEL Alstom, France 20 L&T MHI, Japan 4 Thermax Babcock & Wilcox, US 3 BGR Energy Hitachi, Japan 4 Gammon Ansaldo, Italy 1 Doosan Heavy Industries Doosan Heavy Industries, Korea 3 Cethar Siemens, Kraftanlagen Munchen 8 Manufacturer Technology Supplier Installed Capacity (GW) BHEL Siemens, Germany 20 L&T MHI, Japan 4 Bharat Forge Alstom, France 5 JSW Toshiba, Japan 3 BGR Energy Hitachi, Japan 4 CHALLENGES FACING BTG EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS With entry of numerous Indian and foreign companies, the Indian BTG equipment market is witnessing an over capacity Several private sector generation companies have preferred to import BTG sets from China on the grounds of relatively faster delivery schedule and competitive cost of sourcing Competitive pressures from OEM s in China may increase further given the likelihood of slowdown in the new orders for coal based capacity in China, and availability of cost - competitive financing support from state owned Chinese banks and financial institutions All Government-funded power projects are mandated to procure equipment or material locally through domestic competitive bidding Source: ICRA, EAC Analysis, Company websites 13 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 13

14 INDIA THERMAL POWER GENERATION OUTLOOK The focus is expected to be on capacity augmentation to meet base load requirements coupled with renovation and modernization projects of existing power plants for efficiency improvement INSTALLED CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT (GW) INSTALLED CAPACITY SPLIT BY OWNERSHIP (GW) OCT 2016 CAGR ( ) Gas 0% Coal 7.3% 10% * XX% 7% 1) Plant Load Factor 2) Green House Gas CAGR * Data as of Oct 2016 Source: CEA, EAC research Central State Private Thermal power generation capacities have predominantly grown on the back on coal based power plant capacity augmentation driven by private sector investments The government is making efforts to ensure increased private sector participation in power generation; private sector is likely to continue taking the lead in capacity augmentation The government intends to increase the PLF 1) of gas based power plants to 60% from the current 10-15%; low PLFs are primarily due to lack of fuel availability Additionally, improving the existing plant efficiency and reduction in GHG 2) emissions is an area of focus for the government 14 27% 30% 28% 34% 29% 33% 38% 41% 39% Coal Gas Total Thermal Dominated by govt. companies (~60% share) EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 14

15 EMERGING TRENDS CLEAN COAL TECHNOLOGIES Thermal power generation will continue to dominate the base power requirement; technologies are fast evolving with a focus on curbing pollution KEY TRENDS CURRENT STATUS TRENDS: 2017 ONWARDS Emission Control Retrofitting existing plants with pollution control equipment (eg. filters, coal washing / benefication / preparation etc.) R&D on CCS 2) (capturing the CO 2 stream, techniques Adhering to govt. norms on pollution control (carbon, Sox 5), Nox 6), PM 7) and waste water) coupled with restriction on use of fresh water to drive demand for R&M 8) of existing plants Commercialization of CCS techniques Higher acceptance and penetration of CCS techniques driven by potential govt. mandates Power Generation Technologies New power plants built on super-critical and USC 1) platforms R&D and pilot projects in AUSC 3) and IGCC 4) technologies Significantly higher penetration of USC technologies Commercialization of AUSC technologies Commercialization of penetration of IGCC technologies 1) Ultra Super-critical 2) Carbon Capture and Storage 3) Advanced Ultra Super-critical 4) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle 5) Sulphur Oxides 6) Nitrogen Oxides 7) Particulate Matter 15 8) Renovation and Modernization Source: EAC research EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 15

16 EMERGING TRENDS INNOVATION TO ZERO Efficiency enhancement of existing power infrastructure will be the primary focus area from a perspective of improving financial health of utilities KEY TRENDS CURRENT STATUS TRENDS: 2017 ONWARDS Thermal Power Plant Efficiency Improvement R&M 1), LE 2) techniques and MRO 3) of power plants for efficient operation Equipment level efficiency improvement measures Focus on preventive maintenance Focus on improving overall plant efficiency Replacing older and inefficient power plants with super critical, USC 4) and AUSC 5) technologies Outsourcing O&M 6) activities for efficient operations Integrating digitization for power plant operations including asset management Focus on predictive maintenance 1) Renovation and Modernization 2) Life Extension 3) Maintenance Repair and Overhaul 4) Ultra Super-critical 5) Advanced Ultra Super-critical 6) Operations and Maintenance 16 Source: EAC research EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 16

17 INDIAN THERMAL POWER GENERATION EMERGING TRENDS Environmental concerns will result in significant opportunities for CCS 1) of existing plants coupled with penetration of USC 2) and AUSC 3) technologies EMERGING TRENDS 2017 AND ONWARDS Besides capacity augmentation, the government is clearly focussing on AUSC 2) Technology USC 1) Technology #1 Clean Coal Technologies Impact on Power Sector IGCC 4) Technology CCS Technology Automation and Remote Monitoring & Control #2 #3 #4 Capacity optimization Reduction of Losses Green technologies (Renewable Energy) Efficiency Improvement Retrofits #5 Optimizing energy use (DSM 5) ) Certainty of Occurrence ( ) Optimal space utilization (Hybrid #6 solutions) 1) Carbon Capture and Storage 2) Ultra Super-critical 3) Advanced Ultra Super-critical 4) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle 5) Demand side Management 17 Source: EAC research EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 17

18 INDIAN THERMAL POWER GENERATION BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES Indian energy industry offers significant opportunities to foreign companies like invest in energy projects, out-sourcing possibilities, setting up manufacturing base LOCAL SET-UP IN INDIA Project Operator/ Financial Investor Manufacturing setup Developers / Operators for energy project Make financial investment for projects in India Bring in technology know-how and tie-up with local companies (or direct entry) for manufacturing advanced BTG 1) / BoP 2) equipment Use India as a manufacturing hub for exporting to global locations achieve optimization of cost and utilization of valuable resources including local talent and competence CLP (HongKong) owns 1,975 MW of thermal plant in Gujarat and Haryana AES (U.S) made financial investment in Orissa Thermal Power Corporation Gammon have JV with Ansaldo (Italy) for manufacturing Boiler in India BHEL have technical collaboration with Alstom for manufacturing Boilers Bharat Forge have JV with Alstom for manufacturing of turbines and generators Support service set-up Providing technical consulting (especially for CCS 3) ) EPC 4) services/ contracts O&M 5) services / MRO 6) services especially for private produces who can then focus on the core activities of energy sales and trading German company Bilfinger Berger provides EPC services in the filed of power sector with acquisition of two companies in India 1) Boiler Turbine Generator 2) Balance of Plant 3) Carbon Capture and Storage 4) Engineering Procurement and Construction 5) Operation and Maintenance 6) Maintenance Repair and Overhaul 18 Source: EAC research EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 18

19 INDIAN THERMAL POWER GENERATION BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES Indian energy industry offers significant opportunities to foreign companies like invest in energy projects, out-sourcing possibilities, setting up manufacturing base OUT-SOURCING OPPORTUNITIES FROM INDIA Components/ Assemblies India has a well established ecosystem with respect to manufacturing of quality power plant components/ assemblies; India can be a low-cost out-sourcing location for foreign companies Research and Development European companies can set-up R&D centre in India: Availability of local talent and competence World-class universities, good IT infrastructure and engineers with cutting edge knowledge and high experience levels from other multinational companies Source: EAC research 19 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 19

20 WHERE YOU CAN FIND US EAC AROUND THE GLOBE EAC HEADQUARTERS MUNICH EAC - Euro Asia Consulting PartG Heimeranstrasse München eac-muc@eac-consulting.de EAC OFFICE SHANGHAI EAC - Euro Asia Consulting Sunyoung Centre, Rm Jiangsu Road Shanghai/ China eac-sha@eac-consulting.de EAC OFFICE MUMBAI EAC - Euro Asia Consulting Pvt. Ltd Peninsula Plaza A/16, Veera Industrial Estate Andheri (West), Mumbai / India eac-mum@eac-consulting.de EAC OFFICE MOSCOW EAC - Euro Asia Consulting OOO Melnitskiy Per Moscow / Russia eac-mos@eac-consulting.de 20 EAC I Opportunities in Indian Conventional Power Generation I December 9 th 2016/ 20

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