Current Trends in Ethanol, Bioplastics, Cogeneration and Sustainability
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1 11 September 2014 Kingsman Miami Sugar Conference Current Trends in Ethanol, Bioplastics, Cogeneration and Sustainability Jose Orive Executive Director 1
2 Structure of Presentation Quick Round-up on World Sugar in 2014/15 The World Ethanol Market in 2014 and Beyond The World Ethanol Market in 2013 and 2014 The main markets: USA, Brazil, EU Long-Term Outlook by Region to 2020 Bioplastics and Cogeneration Conclusions and Implications for Key Stakeholders 2 2
3 5- Year World Surplus Weighing on Sugar Prices mln mtrv US cents/lb The accumulated world sugar surplus over 4 seasons means the global stocks to consumption ratio will remain above 40% for at least another year. Production Consumption ISA price 3
4 Million Tonnes Another (small) surplus year expected for 2014/15 + 2% + 2% 2012/ / /15(f) Production Consumption Consumption to continue to rise by around 2% a year 4
5 Long-term potential for extra revenues from sugar to 2020 Mln tonnes,raw value Sub-Saharan Africa 2012/ Eastern Europe North America Middle East and Northern Africa Western Europe C.America, Carib and S.America Indian Far East and Subcontinent Oceania Indian Subcontinent and Far East s share in global consumption: 1984: 25% and in 2012/13: 41% (this will rise to 47% in 2020) 5
6 Brazil: Sugar and Ethanol to 2015/16 (Sugar in mln tonnes, tel quel; ethanol in bln litres) April/ March Year Sugar Production Sugar Exports Ethanol Production 2010/ / / / /2015 (f) 2015/2016 (f)
7 Cane Prices and Cane Production Costs in Brazil Indicative Cane Prices vs. Production Costs in Sao Paulo USD/tonne Cane Prices Cane Production Costs 2007/ / / / / / /14 Source: Pecege/CNA/Consecana/ISO 7 7
8 Revenues from sugar are 40% lower than in 2011 Ethanol revenues down only 15% Estimated Total Revenues from Sugar/Ethanol in Brazil, in Bln USD Sugar Ethanol Total Source: ISO 8 8
9 The Ethanol Market in 2014 and Beyond 9
10 Global Fuel Ethanol Production in 2014 bln litres USA Brazil Other World Output forecast to rise to match previous record 2014 output World: 89.6 bln litres US: 51.8 bln litres Brazil: 24.8 bln litres Others: 13 bln litres 10
11 mln litres Fuel Ethanol Production, outside USA and Brazil 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, e 2014f EU China Canada Thailand India Australia Argentina Colombia Among other producers, EU already had record output in 2013; strong growth for Thailand and Argentina in both 2013 and
12 In other countries: FDI and blend mandates should encourage ethanol output growth Country Blend % Time Argentina E Peru, Uruguay E Bolivia E Canada E China E Colombia E Dominican Rep. E-7.5 authorised Ethiopia E India E-10 In 17 of 25 states Indonesia E Jamaica E Kenya E-10 Future date Malaysia E Mexico E Paraguay E Philippines E Vietnam E
13 Global Fuel Ethanol Demand to 2020 Top consumers of Fuel Ethanol United States Brazil EU (28) China - Others 75 bln litres (RFS2) 35 bln litres 11 bln litres 8 bln litres 28 bln litres World Total 157 bln litres Up 80% from today s level, in part counting on success of second generation ethanol demand in the US
14 Brazil contraction affecting world trade in 2014 more countries needed Canada, 1,000 Asia, 400 EU, 500 US, 900 Brazil, 300 EU, 100 Thailand to Philippines, 100 Caribbean, 100 (Mln Litres) 14
15 Bioplastics and Cogeneration 15
16 Bioplastics Annual production capacity expected to rise from 1.4 mln tonnes in 2012 to 6.2 million tonnes by Production in the EU may require 1.2 mln tonnes of sugar by Some are less optimistic for demand growth, but here sustainability is key if marketed correctly by the industry. 16
17 Sugar Crop Diversification: Bio Plastics 17
18 Global Production Capacity of Bioplastics The equivalent to 6 mln tonnes of sugar to be diverted to bioplastics production from ethanol in Brazil alone by 2020, making ethanol is a bullish driver over the long run. Thailand and India also promising markets. Source: European Bioplastics 18 18
19 Cogeneration in Brazil Electricity Exported to the Grid, Brazil, in average MW Spot Electricity Prices in Brazil as of end-may, in BRL/MWh 2,000 1,800 1,600 1, ,200 1,
20 Sugar Crop Diversification: Cogeneration Mexico El Salvador Honduras Guatemala Colombia Nicaragua Cost Rica Brazil Uganda South Africa Pakistan India Kenya Swaziland Thailand Mauritius Réunion Vietnam Philippines Australia 20 20
21 Cogeneration in Guatemala Evolution of Sugar Mill Cogeneration with Bagasse GWh 21
22 Conclusions Diversifying away from Sugar? Small sugar surplus projected for 2014/15: 1) Higher output projected for India, EU, Russia and Ukraine; 2) But key producer Brazil facing shrinking revenues from sugar ; 3) Rapid consumption growth in Asia provides bullish outlook over the longer-term. In the meantime, countries should be focusing on alternative sources of revenue, like fuel ethanol, bioplastics and cane-bagasse cogeneration. 22
23 Conclusions Ethanol, Bioplastics and Cogeneration World record output for fuel ethanol in The equivalent of 6 mln tonnes of sugar to be diverted to bioplastics production from ethanol in Brazil alone by Bullish for the Longer Term. World fuel ethanol demand/supply to grow by 80% to 157 bln litres by Record spot market electricity prices in Brazil providing an unmissable opportunity to cane bagasse cogeneration
24 Thank you! Tuesday 25 - Wednesday 26 November rd ISO Seminar Sugar and Ethanol: Fresh Options Canary Wharf, London.
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