Does Money Grow on Trees? Willingness to Pay for Wood Ethanol in New England

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1 Does Money Grow on Trees? Willingness to Pay for Wood Ethanol in New England A Discrete Choice Scenario Kate Farrow, MS Candidate Resource Economics, Global Policy CRÉATE and UMaine Graduate Student Conference May 20, 2011

2 Motivation Energy Independence and Security Act (2007) mandates production of 36 billion gallons of biofuel by billion gallons from cellulosic-based ethanol Expansion of the renewable energy market relies on an understanding of the public s preferences

3 Research Question On average, how much are New England residents willing to pay for wood-based cellulosic ethanol? Calculated from a consumer demand model: Choice = f(fuel attributes, individual characteristics)

4 Data School of Economics designed a mail survey to examine people s reactions to biofuels Sent in 2009 to New England residents 1341 surveys returned 35% response rate Contained a conjoint scenario of three fuel products that varied across price, source, global warming score, and import score

5 Assume that in a few months you went to your usual station to buy some fuel. In addition to the fuel you usually buy, you find two other types of fuel. The only difference between the fuels is what appears below. Note we have given you some information about your usual fuel. YOUR USUAL FUEL $1.52 FUEL A $1.33 FUEL B $1.44 Each gallon of this product produces 22 pounds of green house gases 63 percent of this fuel is imported This product contains ethanol made from wood Each gallon of this product produces 4 pounds of green house gases 50 percent of this fuel is imported This product contains ethanol made from corn Each gallon of this product produces 20 pounds of green house gases 57 percent of this fuel is imported 5. Which fuel would you purchase? (PLEASE CHECK ONE BOX) I WOULD CHOOSE MY USUAL FUEL I WOULD CHOOSE FUEL A I WOULD CHOOSE FUEL B

6 A Complication 14. What type of fuel do you typically put in your vehicle? (PLEASE CHECK ONE BOX) (52%) (45%) GASOLINE GASOLINE MIXED WITH 10 PERCENT ETHANOL (E10) GASOLINE MIXED WITH 85 PERCENT ETHANOL (E85) DIESEL OR OTHER FUEL SKIP TO SECTION FIVE

7 A Complication Two groups: Usual fuel = gasoline Usual fuel = E10 (i.e. corn) Likelihood Ratio test indicates that the two groups are significantly different Therefore, we will determine two WTP estimates

8 Theory: The Model Conditional Logit: Prob(fuel choice) = f(αint + β CHR CHR k + γ PSY PSY + e) CHR k : fuel attributes PSY : psychological characteristics

9 Theory: Marginal Willingness to Pay price = - price X Prob(fuel choice) wood Prob(fuel choice) wood WTP = -1 X β wood β price

10 Methods: Factor Analysis Factor Analysis Results: Psychological Variables Factor Loadings Constructs Question ECOBUY Buying greener products improves the environment It's worthwhile to buy greener products It's good to buy greener products I improve the environment when I buy greener products Reducing the amount I drive decreases global warming USABUY It's good to buy American-made products It's worthwhile to buy American-made products Buying American-made fuel improves our economy It's worthwhile to buy less imported fuel It's a good idea to buy less imported fuel TEK In general, I am hesitant to try new products (Resistant Change) In general, I am hesitant to try new technologies I am often skeptical about new products SNUSA Most people I know try to buy American-made products People who are important to me buy American-made prod Most of my friends buy products made in the USA ECO Concern about how forests are managed in the region Concern about the amount of air pollution in the region Concern about the region's dependence on foreign sources Concern about the region's economy LESSGOOD It's worthwhile to reduce the amount of miles I drive It's good to reduce the amount of miles I drive

11 Regression Results Attribute Believe Using Gasoline Only Believe Using E-10 Price *** *** Global Warming Score * Fuel Import Score *** *** Wood-Based Corn-Based N/A Import score * USA Buy *** Import*Eco-Buying *** Global Warming*USA Global Warming * ECO *** Forest Impacts Resistant Change*Wood * Resistant Change*Corn N/A Damage Engine*Wood Damage Engine*Corn N/A Note: *, **, and *** denote a significance of p <.05, p <.01, and p <.001, respectively

12 Marginal Willingness to Pay Estimate: No Knowledge of E10 Use price = price X Prob(fuel) wood Prob(fuel) wood WTP = - 1 X β wood β price WTP = - 1 X WTP = 0.010

13 Marginal Willingness to Pay Estimate: Knowledge of E10 Use price = price X Prob(fuel) wood Prob(fuel) wood WTP = - 1 X β wood β price WTP = - 1 X WTP = 0.088

14 Conclusions and Implications Mean WTP estimates: Usual fuel = gasoline : $0.010 Usual fuel = E10 : $0.088 Consumer fuel selection is in part attributable to knowledge of existing fuel supply Window for eco-marketing

15 Conclusions and Implications Consumer attitudes and concerns are important in determining fuel selection, specifically: ECOBUY USABUY TEK (Resistant Change) Further evidence for raising public awareness of ethanol

16 Merci! Des questions?

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