Analysis of Trinidad and Tobago's Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance
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1 Analysis of Trinidad and Tobago's Natural Gas Supply-Demand Balance Godfrey Ransome (SPE) and Haydn I. Furlonge The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Ltd. This paper was prepared for presentation at the GSTT 2000 SPE Conference held in Portof-Spain, Trinidad July It was selected for presentation by a Technical Committee following review of the information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper, as presented, have not been reviewed by this Technical Committee and are subject to corrections by the author(s). The material, as presented, does not necessarily reflect any position of the Technical Committee, Geological Society of Trinidad and Tobago, Society of Petroleum Engineers, its officers, or members. Copies of papers should contain conspicuous acknowledgement of where and by whom the paper was presented. SUMMARY Given the anticipated development of the natural gas industry in Trinidad and Tobago, this paper addresses the supply-demand balance. A mathematical model was developed to determine the optimal reserves addition profile which meets all projected demand scenarios. It was shown that there is a need to boost reserves by up to 39 tscf in a 20-year period to satisfy a high demand scenario and to maintain a minimum reserves to production ratio of 25 years. This substantial volume would undoubtedly pose a significant exploration challenge to the country. However, substantial exploration activity is taking place and the prospects are promising. The option of importing gas from Venezuela is also discussed in this paper. INTRODUCTION Natural gas, because of its environmental-friendly characteristics, abundance, and energy efficiency, is increasingly seen as the fuel and raw material for the future in many energy sectors. Current local demand is around 1375 MMscfd, with applications in petrochemicals, LNG and steel production, power generation, and in the transportation and commercial sectors. Even greater demand is expected with expansions in these and other areas, e.g. aluminum and gas to liquids processing. Current proven reserves stand at approximately 21 tscf, giving an reserves to production (RTP) ratio of about 40 years. Given this volume of reserves and the growing demand, strategies must be devised to ensure that a feasible supply-demand balance exists during the medium to long term. In this paper, the various possibilities for expansion of the local natural gas industry are outlined, from which various demand scenarios are derived. The reserves required to meet these demand scenarios are determined. To address the anticipated tightness in supply, suitable optimization techniques are applied to determine the reserves addition profile which will be required to meet the demand as well as to be optimal with respect to an economic criterion. The modeling approach ensures that the solution obtained is highly flexible so as to meet various demand scenario requirements while maintaining optimality. Consideration is also given to gas transmission capacity. OPTIMIZATION METHODOLOGY In this section, the methodology used for determining the optimal reserves addition profile is outlined. The time horizon and mathematical model are described. Planning Period. Long-term contracts are usually signed for a period of 20 years. In this model, however, growth in natural gas demand and supply projections are made only for the first 6 years ( ) due to the increasing degree of uncertainty in making long-term projections. Beyond this period, supply and demand levels are assumed to remain constant. Mathematical Model. The supply-demand model may be represented mathematically by a set of equality and inequality constraints. Firstly, in order to ensure that demand is met in each year for all scenarios, the maximum demand (D max ) of all scenarios (D j ) is determined: D max = MAX (D j )... (1) Thus, the supply of natural gas (S t ) must be above this maximum demand (D max t) in each year t: S t D max t... (2)
2 GODFREY RANSOME and HAYDN I. FURLONGE 2 The reserves in a particular year (R t ) is given by the quantity in the previous year (R t-1 ) plus the reserves addition (R new t) minus the amount consumed (365 S t ): R t = R t-1 + R t new - (365 S t )... (3) The reserves to production ratio (r t ) is given by: r t = R t /(365 S t )... (4) In order to ensure a long-term supply of gas to existing and new consumers, the RTP ratio must be above a lower bound (r t L ) which is taken to be 20 years for all years: r t r t L... (5) To determine the optimal reserves addition profile through optimization, the objective function is the cost of adding reserves and minimizing the total cost of exploration: Minimize ( R t new )... (6) where is the unit capital cost of exploration (US$m/tscf of gas). Based on data collected locally, is taken as US$m 250/tscf. The optimizer determines the amount of new reserves to be added in each year. Since it is unrealistic for this to be unbounded, the following constraint is applied: R new U t R t... (7) where R U t is taken to be 5 tscf. The modeling and optimization software GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) was used. SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE Demand Scenarios. Over the past seven years, local natural gas consumption has almost tripled (from 504 MMscfd to 1375 MMscfd). Within this period, three methanol plants, three ammonia plants and one LNG plant have been constructed. This high growth rate in demand is expected to continue at least in the short to medium term. Confirmed and potential projects include petrochemicals, liquefied natural gas, metals, gas to liquids, power, and other new technologies such as fuel cells and methanol to olefins. In this study, three demand scenarios have been defined with varying rates of growth in demand. In each case, the projected demand over the next six years is estimated. 1. Low Demand Growth Scenario - projects which have already been approved or are closest to being finalized, are included (see Table 1). 2. Medium Demand Growth Scenario - projects in the low demand growth scenario as well as those which are fairly well advanced are included (see Table 2). 3. High Demand Growth Scenario - projects in the medium demand growth scenario as well as those projects which are in the initial stages of consideration are included (see Table 3). Figure 1 shows a plot of the projected local natural gas consumption over the years 1999 to 2006 for these three demand scenarios. It should be noted that from 2006 to 2019, natural gas consumption is assumed to remain constant since there is a great deal of uncertainty in making projections during this distant period. Nonetheless, this assumption is considered to be reasonable for the purposes of this study, since ensuring a long-term supply of natural gas for short to medium term projects (which have a greater degree of certainty) is a more pressing issue. Matching Supply to Demand Scenarios. Over the past ten years domestic gas supply, excluding LNG, has increased (at an average rate of about 11%/year) steadily, in response to increasing demand, from 445 MMscfd in 1990 to 900 MMscfd in With the coming on stream of the Atlantic LNG (ALNG) Train 1 in 1999, total gas supply jumped from 835 MMscfd in 1998 to 1365 MMscfd in When the two-train expansion of the LNG plant is in full operation in 2004, gas supply would be 2325 MMscfd (excluding new domestic expansion). From 1994 proven gas reserves have shown to be resilient and very responsive to demand. This responsiveness can be attributed largely to the over 70% success ratio in some exploratory efforts off the east coast in which over 13 tscf of proven reserves were discovered. The country s proven reserves have grown from 8.1 tscf in 1994 with an RTP ratio of 39 years to 21 tscf in 1999 with the RTP ratio remaining fairly unchanged.
3 GODFREY RANSOME and HAYDN I. FURLONGE 3 Three supply scenarios were identified for a 20-year planning period which match each of the three demand scenarios (see Figure 2): 1. Base - this scenario supports the low demand growth case which consumes 17.8 tscf over the 20 years. Assuming no reserve additions, proven reserves of 21 tscf will fall to 3.2 tscf and the RTP ratio will decline from 42 years to 3 years. 2. Most Likely - this supply profile matches the medium demand growth projection which requires 20.2 tscf. The current reserves is just able to support this case. 3. Optimistic - this profile responds to a high demand scenario which consumes 23.8 tscf over the 20 years, with a deficit of 2.8 tscf. However, if probable (4.8 tscf) and possible (3.1 tscf) reserves are realized, high gas demand will be met. It should be noted that the scenarios outlined above represents minimum proven reserves that would just satisfy each supply scenario without considering RTP ratios. Proven reserves must be increased considerably when RTP requirements are considered as is later discussed. Apart from continuous exploration efforts by the three main producers to cater for predicted demand, the State has sought to stimulate exploration by offering Production Sharing Contracts (PSC). Since 1996, thirteen offshore blocks have been awarded to eight operators. Exploration drilling thus far has indicated promising results both off the north and east coasts. Considering that supply from excessive exploration can outstrip demand resulting in idle investments, and that demand must be assured of available supply, then an optimal reserves profile that satisfies demand scenarios with minimum exploration expenditure would be beneficial. Optimal Reserves Addition Profile for Short-term Planning. Here, we are primarily concerned with ensuring security of gas supply for the short-term i.e The optimal reserves addition profile ensures that all projects built during this period have a 20 year supply of gas (cf. Eq. 5). In the high demand growth scenario, some 23.8 tscf of natural gas will be consumed over the 20 year period. The optimal reserves addition profile involves the addition of 12.2 tscf new reserves over the next 3 years at a cost of US$m Since there is a limit of 5 tscf set on the quantity of reserves that may be added each year, 5 tscf is added in each of the first two years and the remainder (2.2 tscf) in the third year. Under this scenario, the amount of reserves at the end of the period is 9.4 tscf. Unlike the other supply scenarios, the RTP ratio drops below 20 years only after the investment period (i.e. after 2006). Thus, all new consumers between 2000 to 2006 will be guaranteed of a 20 year supply. In the next section, long-term security of supply is discussed. RTP Requirements for Long-term Planning. Considering that significant volumes of gas (over 10 tscf) would be exported (via LNG) during the 20 year period, security of supply for the domestic gas industry could be threatened. Acquiring an additional 2.8 tscf required to meet the demand of the high growth scenario is by no means burdensome. However, the real problem is that a declining RTP ratio could adversely affect the growth of the downstream sector as depleting reserves would not provide the required supply cushion for current and future investors in longterm projects. Maintaining a minimum RTP ratio over the whole 20 year period would ensure long-term development is not hindered by supply availability. It should be noted that some countries (e.g those in the American and European continents) operate at relatively low RTP ratios. However, they are able to do so because of well-developed international pipeline networks which make long-term security of supply less of a concern. Trinidad and Tobago's situation is different in that the country is self-reliant on supply. Thus, maintaining a comfortably high RTP ratio is necessary. Table 4 shows the reserves requirements to maintain various minimum RTP ratios. To meet the requirements of the low, medium and high demand scenarios, additional reserves of between 11.3 tscf and 36.2 tscf would be required solely to maintain an RTP ratio between 15 years and 25 years.
4 GODFREY RANSOME and HAYDN I. FURLONGE 4 For the high demand case, a total of up to 39 tscf new proven reserves would be needed to satisfy demand and maintain an RTP ratio of 25 years. Reserve requirements in the long-term would be even greater if one considers projected growth in demand beyond This substantial volume would undoubtedly pose a significant exploration challenge to the country; although, recent discoveries are encouraging. The possibility of utilizing some of the significant reserves of nearby stranded Venezuelan gas may provide added comfort to the challenge, as discussed next. Option of Importing Gas from Venezuela. Venezuela has announced plans to invest up to US$ 10 billion over the next 10 years in developing its natural gas industry. The country with 147 tscf of proven gas reserves has significantly more than that of Trinidad and Tobago (21 tscf). Its current RTP ratio is about 65 years. Given the rate of development of Trinidad and Tobago's downstream industry and its established gas pipeline network, the exploitation of Venezuelan reserves is an opportunity worth considering, particularly in light of new Venezuelan Gaseous Hydrocarbon Organic Law. Despite this, some have expressed concerns [4] that the Venezuelan Government is still too ambiguous over its position on allowing foreign investment, and that faster implementation of its policies is required if uncertainty over the country's political stability is to be dissipated and investor confidence is to grow. Trinidad is strategically located, being in close proximity to extensive offshore gas fields. More specifically, the Plataforma Deltana, which has over 28 tscf of proven reserves, covers an extensive area that includes offshore eastern Venezuela and southeastern Trinidad. A recent discovery in Block 5(b) which adjoins the area also opens up a window for possible alliances between the two countries to explore the basin. Also, the Carupano basin, northwest of Trinidad, is another prospective area with considerable exploration potential. Abundant reserves of natural gas north of the Paria Peninsula, just five miles from the international boundary, is soon to be exploited by a consortium of Royal Dutch/Shell, Exxon-Mobil, Mitsubishi and PDVSA in a $US 2 billion LNG Venezuelan project. In essence, given the close proximity to Trinidad, and the country's established and expanding transmission network, these Venezuelan gas provinces represent sources that can significantly boost the country s natural gas supply. However, agreements with the Venezuelan Government would obviously have to be astutely negotiated to ensure a beneficial and long term supply to the country. GAS TRANSMISSION and DISTRIBUTION CONSIDERATIONS Apart from the security of gas reserves to meet local consumption, a key issue relates to available capacity in the gas transmission system. The current transmission network comprises of: a 24-inch/20-inch diameter, 400 MMscfd capacity offshore/onshore pipeline (built in 1978) originating from the Teak and Poui fields. a 30-inch, 600 MMscfd offshore/onshore line (built in 1982) running from the Cassia field. a 40-inch diameter, 1275 MMscfd sub-sea line and a 36-inch complement onshore line to Point Fortin (built in 1998) to cater for the Atlantic LNG project. Currently, 475 MMscfd is utilized by LNG Train I, with Trains II and III (both 475 MMscfd capacity) expected to come onstream by the end of 2002 and 2003 respectively. a 36-inch diameter onshore, 42 miles pipeline (built in 1999) was constructed from Beachfield to Point Lisas thereby increasing overall domestic line capacity (excluding LNG) to 1400 MMscfd. As far as the domestic gas market is concerned (i.e. assuming LNG pipeline capacity would be met by parties involved), the long-term natural gas supply for the low, medium and high demand scenarios are 1220 MMscfd, 1620 MMscfd and 2240 MMscfd respectively. Given that the total domestic capacity is currently 1400 MMscfd, only the needs of the low demand scenario are met. For the other scenarios, pipeline capacity expansions would be required, particularly for the high demand case (840 MMscfd). A concommitant increase in gas processing capacity, currently performed by Phoenix Park Gas Processors
5 GODFREY RANSOME and HAYDN I. FURLONGE 5 Ltd. (which has a capacity of 1400 MMscfd) would also be required. CONCLUSIONS 1. For security of supply over the long-term, newly proven reserve requirements could reach as high as 39 tscf for a 20-year period in order to satisfy high demand and to maintain an RTP ratio of 25 years. For the medium and low demand growth scenarios, 31.4 tscf and 17.8 tscf new reserves respectively would be required. 2. An optimal reserves addition profile for security of supply of short-term development shows the need to boost proven reserves by 12.2 tscf over the next six years to satisfy the high demand scenario. 3. Substantial new reserves, particularly in yet unexplored areas, will be required to satisfy the high demand scenario. An estimated capital cost of US$3 billion for exploration activities would be required. It may also be worthwhile forming alliances with Venezuela to source their stranded reserves considering the close proximity of their reservoirs and their new favorable gas laws. 4. Current domestic pipeline capacity of 1400 MMscfd (excluding gas for LNG production) needs to be expanded to match growing capacity for the medium (160 MMscfd) and high (840 MMscfd) demand growth scenarios. References [1] Gasco News (Corporate Journal of The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Ltd.), 11, Jan [2] "Venezuela Hatching Big Plans for Jump-Starting Natural Gas Sector", Oil and Gas Journal, 9 August [3] "Huge finds contribute to new dynamism in gas sector", Petroleum Economist, , [4] "Venezuelan government points to in-depth oil policy changes", Oil and Gas J., 98 (16), April
6 GODFREY RANSOME and HAYDN I. FURLONGE 6 Table 1 Projected Local Natural Gas Consumption - Low Demand Growth Scenario Year Existing/New Existing /New Gas Total Local Projects Consumption, MMscfd Consumption, MMscfd 2000 Existing Plants 900 ALNG I Existing Plants 975 ALNG I Existing Plants 1000 ALNG I 475 Petrochemicals Existing Plants 1000 Petrochemicals 220 ALNG I and II Existing Plants 1000 Petrochemicals 220 ALNG I, II and III Table 2 Projected Local Natural Gas Consumption - Medium Demand Growth Scenario Year Existing/New Existing /New Gas Total Local Projects Consumption, MMscfd Consumption, MMscfd 2000 Existing Plants 900 ALNG I Existing Plants 975 ALNG I Existing Plants 1000 ALNG I 475 Petrochemicals Existing Plants 1000 ALNG I and II 950 Petrochemicals 220 GTL Existing Plants 1000 ALNG I, II and III 1425 Petrochemicals 320 GTL 125 Metals
7 GODFREY RANSOME and HAYDN I. FURLONGE 7 Table 3 Projected Local Natural Gas Consumption - High Demand Growth Scenario Year Existing/New Existing /New Gas Total Local Projects Consumption, MMscfd Consumption, MMscfd 2000 Existing Plants 900 ALNG I Existing Plants 975 ALNG I Existing Plants 1000 ALNG I 475 Petrochemicals Existing Plants 1000 ALNG I and II 950 Petrochemicals 220 GTL Existing Plants 1000 ALNG I, II and III 1425 Petrochemicals 320 GTL 375 Metals Existing Plants 1000 ALNG I, II and III 1425 Petrochemicals 320 GTL 625 Metals 205 New Technology Table 4 Proven Reserves (tscf) Required for Various Minimum RTP Ratios Demand Scenario Gas Consumption Additional Gas Requirement to Maintain Various Minimum RTP 15 Years 20 Years 25 Years Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand
8 Cumulative Gas Consumption (tscf) Mmscfd GODFREY RANSOME and HAYDN I. FURLONGE 8 Figure 1 Projected Local Natural Gas Consumption Profiles For Various Growth Scenarios Low Medium High Year Figure 2 Cumulative Natural Gas Consumption Under Different Demand Scenarios Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Year
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