Pathways to a fossil free, integrated energy system

Transcription

1 Pathways to a fossil free, integrated energy system EUDP / Smart Energy Network, Copenhagen May 29th, 2017 Erland Christensen

2 Content 1. VGB PowerTech 2. Structure of the Generation capacity in Northern Europe 3. The development of wind generation 4. Challenges for the Thermal capacity 5. Consequences for the security of supply 6. Summary

3 Who we are (1/2) We have 478 members in 34 countries, over 90 % European based. We represent an installed capacity of 466 GW based on a wide energy mix and covering all sources for electricity and heat production: 22% 26% 52% Fossil Nuclear Renewables VGB is the International Technical Association for Generation and Storage of Power and Heat.

4 Who we are (2/2): Our main areas of activities In our five competence areas we are dealing with all questions regarding power and heat generation as well as their storage: Nuclear Power Plants Power Plant Technologies Renewables, Distributed Generation Environmental Technology, Chemistry, Safety and Health Technical Services Since its foundation in 1920, VGB has become the technical center of competence for the operators. The membership is open for companies and institutions active in the energy business.

5 Content 1. VGB PowerTech 2. Structure of the Generation capacity in Northern Europe 3. The development of wind generation 4. Challenges for the Thermal capacity 5. Consequences for the security of supply 6. Summary

6 The European generation mix 2015 Capacity 1030 GW 2015 to 2014 Generation 3278 TWh Source: Entso-E, Electricity in Europe 2015

7 EU Reference scenario electricity generation Europe Source: EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emission Trends to 2050, EU Commission 2013 Reduction of coal based generation until 2050.

8 Content 1. VGB PowerTech 2. Structure of the Generation capacity in Northern Europe 3. The development of wind generation 4. Challenges for the Thermal capacity 5. Consequences for the security of supply 6. Summary

9 Dansk vindstrøm slår igen rekord 42 procent Vindmøller leverede i 2015, hvad der svarer til 42,1 procent af danskernes elforbrug. I Jylland og på Fyn leverede vindkraft faktisk mere strøm end det samlede forbrug i over 1460 af årets timer war Rekordjahr für Erneuerbare Energien, Stromerzeugung und Stromexport. Im deutschen Stromsystem wurden im abgelaufenen Jahr mehrere Rekorde gebrochen. So lieferten Erneuerbare Energien mehr Strom als jemals ein anderer Energieträger in Deutschland: Jede dritte Kilowattstunde (32,5 Prozent), die hierzulande verbraucht wurde, stammte aus Wind-, Solar, Wasser und Bioenergiekraftwerken. Success? But : Yes: we reduce CO 2 emission : We totally neglect the difference between MWh and MW

10 Europe: Wind power production in 2016 PT 18 Countries IE ES UK FR NL BE NO DK IT SE DE AT CZ FI PL RO GR AT Austria BE Belgium CZ Czech Republic DE Germany DK Denmark ES Spain FI Finland FR France GR Greece IE Ireland IT Italy NL Netherlands NO Norway PO Poland PT Portugal RO Romania SE Sweden UK United Kingdom

11 Starting position European transparency data Time series for power supply Quarter-hourly to hourly values Nominal output of wind power plants Total output of wind power plants Total output of consumers (load) Note No own data, but plausibility checks of temporally synchronized transparency data (UTC: coordinated universal time) Linear interpolation in case of data gaps Verification of interpolated values based on further data sources Illustration: Central question Is wind always and anywhere blowing for basic electricity supply?

12 Europe: Wind power production in 2016 Germany Wind power supply of 18 selected countries Summed up without losses (copper plate)

13 Europe: Wind power production in France

14 Europe: Wind power production in Belgium

15 Europe: Wind power production in Netherlands

16 Europe: Wind power production in Denmark

17 Europe: Wind power production in Poland

18 Europe: Wind power production in Czech Republic

19 Europe: Wind power production in Austria

20 Europe: Wind power production in Italy

21 Europe: Wind power production in Spain

22 Europe: Wind power production in Portugal

23 Europe: Wind power production in Ireland

24 Europe: Wind power production in United Kingdom

25 Europe: Wind power production in Norway

26 Europe: Wind power production in Sweden

27 Europe: Wind power production in Finland

28 Europe: Wind power production in Romania

29 Europe: Wind power production in Greece

30 Europe: Wind power production in 2016 Time series of 18 countries Europe-wide intermittent power output High volatility of resulting time series Apparently correlated power output Smoothing effects to small extent

31 Europe: Wind power production in 2016 Nominal power P N = MW

32 Europe: Wind power production in 2016 Maximum P Max = MW Nominal power P N = MW Arithmetic mean P μ = MW Minimum P Min = 6425 MW

33 Europe: Wind power production in 2016 Maximum P Max = MW Nominal power P N = MW Permanently available Secured capacity P P = 4,2 % P N Arithmetic mean P μ = MW Minimum P Min = 6425 MW

34 Europe: Wind regimes at different weather conditions Fresh breeze 31st January 2016 Examples of different weather conditions Light breeze 7th June 2016

35 Europe: Wind regimes at different weather conditions Fresh breeze Light breeze 31st January a.m. Bft 7th June a.m. Bft to 11 m/s to 4 m/s Source: Source:

36 Europe: Wind regimes at different weather conditions Fresh breeze Light breeze 31st January a.m. Bft 7th June a.m. Bft Good wind regime in large parts of Europe 2 1 Weak wind regime (lull) in large parts of Europe 2 1 Source: Source:

37 Europe: Minimum power at European network level Germany plus 7 neighbouring countries Average load P μ,l Nominal power P N Secured capacity P P MW MW 1.6 % P N Minimum P Min = 1368 MW

38 Europe: Minimum power at European network level Germany plus 17 countries Average load P μ,l Nominal power P N Secured capacity P P MW MW 4.2 % P N Minimum P Min = 6425 MW

39 Europe: Minimum power at European network level Germany plus 17 countries Backup system (no losses) Maximum power Energy Utilization MW 6.8 TWh 498 h/a Backup-need for an increase to MW = 13.2 % P N

40 Denmark: Wind power production in 2016 Onshore

41 Denmark: Wind power production in 2016 Maximum P Max = 3177 MW Onshore Minimum P Min = 7 MW Production E R,Won = 7.3 TWh

42 Denmark: Wind power production in 2016 Offshore Onshore

43 Denmark: Wind power production in 2016 Maximum P Max = 1189 MW Offshore Minimum P Min = 0 MW Production E R,Won = 4.6 TWh

44 Denmark: Wind power production and load in 2016

45 Europe: Spatial correlation of power time series CZ NL PL DK BE FR Direct neighbours of Germany High correlation up to about 900 km Conclusion: No significant smoothing

46 Europe: Spatial correlation of power time series Intuitive smoothing expectation At its best with coefficient of r S 0 Countries as far away as possible Finland Italy

47 Europe: Spatial correlation of power time series Finland Nominal power Finland MW Italy MW Normalization

48 Europe: Spatial correlation of power time series Finland Italy

49 Europe: Spatial correlation of power time series Finland Italy Even in case of uncorrelated data no sufficient smoothing!

50 Europe: Wind power production versus demand Average Load MW Consumption 2840 TWh Wind energy contribution of 10 % Arithmetic mean MW Production 290 TWh

51 European perspective: Need for storage or fossil generation Germany plus seven European states 23,200 MW in 111 h or 2.5 TWh 26,000 MW in 400 h or 10.5 TWh Source: ENTSO-E

52 Decommissioning of existing plants Listed for decommissioning: - 88 plants (19,132 MW) incl. Grafenrheinfeld - 29 plants (5,689 MW) have been decommissioned - 26 plants (6,511 MW) classified as system critical - New plants not in the money

53 % of electricity generation (2010) Phase-out of nuclear Brunsbüttel Brokdorf (2021) Unterweser Emsland (2022) Grohnde (2021) Krümmel The development in installed nuclear capacity in Germany (MW) % of electricity generation (2010) Philippsbg. 1 Biblis A Biblis B Philippsbg. 2 (2019) Grafenrheinfeld (2015) Isar 1 Isar 2 (2022) NWS 1 NWS 2 (2022) Gundremmingen B (2017) Gundremmingen C (2021) 0 EasyMap-Kartengrundlage: (C) LUTUM+TAPPERT, Bonn Closed 2011 Closed * * bei Erreichen der in Anlage 3 AtG festgelegten Reststrommengen, spätestens jedoch mit Ablauf des des jeweiligen Jahres Source: Atomgesetz (ATG) 7

54 Status quo: recent USC coal fired power plants in Central Europe Plant Operator Site No. Units Unit Cap. MW (gr.) Main Fuel COD Turow PGE Turow LIG 2018 Kosienice 11 ENEA Kosienice HC 2017 Opole 5 & 6 PGE Opole HC 2018/2019 Belchatow 13 PGE Belchatow LIG 2011 ENEA Kosienice 11: 1075 MW Ledvice 4 CEZ AS Ledvice LIG 2014 Neurath F&G RWE Power Neurath LIG 2012 Datteln 4 E.ON Datteln HC 2019 Moorburg A-B Boxberg R GKM 9 Vattenfall Europe Vattenfall Europe Grosskraftwerk Mannheim AG Hamburg- Moorburg HC 2015 Boxberg LIG 2012 Mannheim HC 2015 RDK8 EnBW Karlsruhe HC 2014 PGE Belchatow: 858 MW PGE Opole: 2x900 MW Walsum 10 STEAG/EVN Duisburg HC 2013 Lünen Trianel Lünen HC 2014 Wilhelmshaven GDF Suez Wilhelmshaven HC 2014 Westfalen D&E RWE Generation Hamm HC 2014 Eemshaven RWE Power Eemshaven HC 2015 Maasvlakte Electrabel Rotterdam HC 2013 Maasvlakte 3 E.ON Benelux Maasvlakte HC plants totaling 19,600 MW

55 Content 1. VGB PowerTech 2. Structure of the Generation capacity in Northern Europe 3. The development of wind generation 4. Challenges for the Thermal capacity 5. Consequences for the security of supply 6. Summary

56 Platts - 63%

57 Contribution and goals of renewable energies in Germany Percentage of electricity from renewable energy sources Goals of the Energy Concept of the Federal Government Extension space according to the coalition agreement Source: BDEW, status 02/2015 * Based on the gross national electricity consumption in Germany ** Preliminary

58 Dr. Roland Bauer, Expertengespräch 2025

59 Pipeline Westcoast: 138 km, 380 kv Commissioning 2021 Südlink: 770 km, 500 kv DC, 4 GW Target 2025 Südostlink: 580 km, 500 kv DC, 2 GW Target

60 Content 1. VGB PowerTech 2. Structure of the Generation capacity in Northern Europe 3. The development of wind generation 4. Challenges for the Thermal capacity 5. Consequences for the security of supply 6. Summary

61 Problems with security of supply? No, right now there is abundance of capacity. But, we need to react within next few years! Passivity is also a decision. And then: The secured generation capacity will - with the highest probability in all scenarios - be under the yearly need for peek capacity. (BNetzA: Szenariorahmen 2025, p. 56)

62 Content 1. VGB PowerTech 2. Structure of the Generation capacity in Northern Europe 3. The development of wind generation 4. Challenges for the Thermal capacity 5. Consequences for the security of supply 6. Summary

63 Options for future basic electricity supply Nuclear energy Politically undesirable Coal Politically undesirable Even valid for CCS technologies Gas Bridge technology Import dependence Biomass Limited availability Competition to food production Illustration: Hydropower Limited availability Practically extensively exhausted Photovoltaics Complementary technology required Contribution at night: Zero Wind energy Complementary technology required Intermittent availability, large correlation lengths of power production CCS: Carbon capture and storage

64 Problems with security of supply? We still need plannable generation capacity up to close to 100% of demand side peek! Demand side management Storage: need for much more R&D Fossil / Nuclear: need to retain capacity for 20 years + But no business case for either!!

65 Thank you for your interest! Contact: Erland Christensen Executive Managing Director VGB PowerTech e.v. Deilbachtal Essen / Germany Tel.: erland.christensen@vgb.org