The challenges of a changing energy landscape

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1 The challenges of a changing energy landscape October 26 th 2016 Maria Pedroso Ferreira EDP Energy Planning

2 Agenda 1 A changing energy landscape 2 Challenges and opportunities in the Electricity sector 3 Portugal s strategy for the electricity sector 2

3 Questions 1. Which country/region is the top energy consumer in the world? a) China b) USA c) European Union 2. What was the percentage of renewables in the Portuguese generation mix in 15? a) ~10% b) ~30% c) ~50% 3

4 Agenda 1 A changing energy landscape 2 Challenges and opportunities in the European Electricity sector 3 Portugal s strategy for the electricity sector 4

5 Agenda 1 A changing energy landscape a The map of energy is changing Efforts to tackle climate change still fall short of its target The role of electricity in demand is increasing 5

6 Global energy demand is expected to evolve at two speeds: flat growth in the OECD and strong growth in non-oecd, pushed by China and India Primary energy demand Mtoe, Consumption growth per geography Mtoe, % Non OECD 32% 20% 11% 32% OECD Total OECD China India Middle East Others Source: BP Energy Outlook

7 Consumption growth in China has been outstanding: in the past decade it added two times the EU s total growth in 35 years Primary energy demand Mtoe, Consumption growth Mtoe Historical Forecast China % % USA EU % Annual EU UK total 2014 Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 China 7

8 Huge disparities in energy consumption levels still subside: a New York inhabitant consumes 40x more electricity than one in Sub-Saharan Africa Residential electricity consumption in New York and Sub-Saharan Africa New York State (US) Sub-Saharan Africa Population ~20 Million People ~800 Million People Consumption/ capita kwh/capita 50 kwh/capita Total = 40 TWh/year 40 TWh/year consumption Source: IEA, WEC 8

9 Currently, 1.2 billion people still lack access to electricity, but demand growth in non-oecd should drive millions out of energy poverty Population without access to electricity Millions, 2013 Population without access to electricity Millions, 2012 and Others % Asia % 2% 1% Africa Total Africa Asia LatAm Middle East WEO 2012 Symphony Jazz 2050 WEC scenarios Source: IEA, WEC 9

10 Demand will grow faster than supply in non-oecd, eroding its net exporter position; energy will increasingly flow from West to East Change in net energy balance Cumulative from 2004, % of consumption Primary Energy net balances 1 Mb/d, FSU Former Soviet Union Source: BP Statistical Review 2014, BP Energy Outlook

11 The US is a showcase of this trend: spectacular increases in oil and gas production, pushed by tight oil and shale gas, reduce its import needs US oil production Million tonnes, US gas production Bcm, Shale gas E Source: BP Statistical review 2014, EIA 11

12 which had a significant impact in the global commodity markets Oil price $/bbl, Jan 2005 Aug 2016 Gas price /MWht, Jan Aug WTI Brent NBP Henry Hub Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan Source: Reuters

13 Agenda 1 A changing energy landscape The map of energy is changing b Efforts to tackle climate change still fall short of its target The role of electricity in demand is increasing 13

14 To limit the global warming to 2⁰C, known fossil fuel reserves need to stay underground The Carbon bubble The Carbon Bubble dilemma: the World either overshoots the 2⁰C limit, or fossil fuel listed companies are overvalued Source: Conservation Magazine 14

15 However, emissions under IEA s base scenario use all the remaining carbon budget by 2040; adaptation measures will also be needed Global CO 2 emissions Gt, Share of remaining carbon budget used under IEA s Base Scenario % % Current Policies New Policies 450 IEA s 450 scenario is the only that considers the necessary measures to stabilize the increase in temperature to 2⁰C 1. IEA International Energy Agency % Share of budget used in Central Scenario Source: IEA WEO

16 Avoiding severe climate change requires a significant step up in low carbon investment, notably in improved efficiency and renewables Average anual low carbon investment Trillion dollars(2013), Source: IEA International Energy Agency 16

17 Agenda 1 A changing energy landscape The map of energy is changing Efforts to tackle climate change still fall short of its target c The role of electricity in demand is increasing 17

18 Electricity as a final energy source has grown significantly in the past, and it should remain as the highest growth source in the future Inputs to electricity as a share of total primary energy %, Final energy CAGR by fuel type % CAGR ,5 2,0 Highest historical and forecasted growth Electricity 1,5 1,0 0,5 Gas Total Oil Renewables Coal 0,0 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 CAGR Source: BP Statistical review 2014, IEA WEO

19 Indeed, strongly reducing emissions implies increasing electrification of energy demand, besides decarbonizing the power sector Emissions reduction as a function of the share of electricity in final energy demand % Target % CO 2 emissions reduction B C Decarbonize electricity > Renewables > Nuclear > CCS Emissions factor Zero Today s A Increase electrification > Transport (EV) > H&C > Energy efficiency % electricity in final energy demand Source: EDP analysis 19

20 Through the electrification of transports and H&C, overall energy consumption decreases due to higher efficiency of electric techs Transport Electrification 1 Average for 100 km Heating & Cooling Electrification DIESEL VEHICLE ELECTRIC VEHICLE H&C NON- ELECTRIC HEAT PUMP Primary Energy Final Energy after the engine 58,7 kwh (6 liters) 13,5 kwh (1,4 liters) VS 24,3 kwh 13,5 kwh Efficiency VS 90% 300% Electric vehicles 2,5x more efficient Heat pump 3x more efficient than non-electric technologies 1. It is assumed a primary energy/final energy ratio of 68% for generation and 91% for transport and distribution Source: Deloitte, EDP analysis 20

21 Agenda 1 A changing energy landscape 2 Challenges and opportunities in the European Electricity sector 3 Portugal s strategy for the electricity sector 21

22 The context that presided over the last significant change in the industry (liberalization in the 90 s) has dramatically changed Generation Grids and downstream 1990 s > Depreciated assets > Dash-for-gas era > Low and stable fuel prices > Few renewables > Increased consumption > Grid expansion Today > Need to ensure investment in low carbon techs (capex intensive) > Very volatile fuel prices > High share of renewables > Thermal increasingly needed for back-up > Stagnated consumption > Replacement and upgrade of grids > Energy efficiency > Distributed generation and storage Source: EDP analysis 22

23 The context that presided over the last significant change in the industry (liberalization in the 90 s) has dramatically changed Generation Grids and downstream 1990 s > Depreciated assets > Dash-for-gas era > Low and stable fuel prices > Few renewables > Increased consumption > Grid expansion Today > Need to ensure investment in low carbon techs (capex intensive) > Very volatile fuel prices > High share of renewables > Thermal increasingly needed for back-up > Stagnated consumption > Replacement and upgrade of grids > Energy efficiency > Distributed generation and storage Source: EDP analysis 23

24 The uptake of RES has been consistently revised upwards... Solar energy installed capacity forecast GW, Wind energy installed capacity forecast GW, x8.0 x6.9 x F F 100 x x3.6 x F 2010F 2006F Source: IEA WEO

25 thanks to increased competitiveness as innovation and mass production drove sharp cost reductions which are expected to continue Levelized costs of electricity for Europe $/MWh, Source: BNEF NEO

26 The EU Energy Policy has been a key driver in RES investment in Europe, with electricity as a major contributor 43% share in generation in 30 Targets EU electricity generation mix TWh, ENERGY EFFICIENCY > - 20% consumption vs BaU > - 27% consumption vs BaU RENEWABLE SHARE > 20% in final consumption > 10% in transportation > 27% share at EU level RES 12% 29% 36% 43% EMISSION REDUCTION > - 20% of GHG vs 1990 > - 40% of GHG vs 1990 Non RES 88% 71% 64% 57% Source: EC Reference Scenario

27 The context that presided over the last significant change in the industry (liberalization in the 90 s) has dramatically changed Generation Grids and downstream 1990 s > Depreciated assets > Dash-for-gas era > Low and stable fuel prices > Few renewables > Increased consumption > Grid expansion Today > Need to ensure investment in low carbon techs (capex intensive) > Very volatile fuel prices > High share of renewables > Thermal increasingly needed for back-up > Stagnated consumption > Replacement and upgrade of grids > Energy efficiency > Distributed generation and storage Source: EDP analysis 27

28 Changes should be structural for distribution and retail: smart grids, consumers also as producers, and new products and services Distribution and downstream growth opportunities Examples 1 3 Electric vehicles and services 1 5 Smart grids > Total costs of ownership should achieve parity in the 20 s > Remote control and Vehicle to Grid expected soon 2 > Smart grids enable bidirecional communication and energy flows, enhancing efficiency and quality of service Smart equipment Smart grids > Equipment controllable via smartphone > Example: Google s thermostat learns the consumer s habits Source: Eurelectric Innovation Action Plan Taskforce analysis, Google 28

29 Agenda 1 A changing energy landscape 2 Challenges and opportunities in the European Electricity sector 3 Portugal s strategy for the electricity sector 29

30 In 2015, RES accounted for 51% of total generation over the last decade RES contributed to increase energy dependence and lower the energy bill Electricity generation in Portugal , % TWh Energy dependence %, Cumulated energy bill savings from RES generation (excl. hydro) 3 Bn, CHP non RES -10 p.p. 5,6 Thermal 39% 10% Others RES 2 7% 24% Wind 84% 72% 3,4 20% 2,2 Hydro Σ Renewables in generation 1 = 51% Total 1. Includes pumping and small hydro; not adjusted for hydro index 2. Includes solar PV, solar CSP, biomass, biogas, MSW, geothermal and waves/ocean/tides 3. Excludes hydro; considers the replacement of RES for CCGT (60%), coal (30%) and interconnection (10%), and includes CO 2 savings Source: EDP, REN, DGEG, ERSE, IMF, Eurostat 30

31 By leveraging on its natural resources, Portugal has achieved one of the highest shares of renewable capacity in the European Union Installed capacity mix GW, February 2016 % RES 45% 55% 36% 49% 50% 34% 21% 65% Others RES 2 Solar Wind Hydro 1 Nuclear 955 4% 10% 15% 16% 13% % 2% 1% 6% 5% 7% 20% 9% 17% 12% 23% 19% 8% 11% 5% 25% 20% 19% 11% 7% 6% 6% 47% 37 2% 12% 6% 79% 21 2% 3% 24% 36% Thermal 3 42% 39% 17% 51% 43% 55% 35% EU-28 Germany France Italy Spain UK Poland Portugal 1. Includes small hydro and pumping 2. Includes geothermal, Tidal, Ocean, Wave and biomass 3. Includes Special Regime Production with fossil fuels Source: IHS February 2016 Planning Scenario 31

32 Portugal s generation has already relied entirely on renewables during particular periods for 4 days in May, demand was fully covered by RES Generation mix in Portugal GWh, 6 th -15 th May May 7-May 8-May 9-May 10-May 11-May 12-May 13-May 14-May 15-May Thermal Others SR Wind Hydro Consumption 32 Source: REN

33 The investment in RES is also key to fulfill the energy policy commitments the share of wind, hydro and solar should grow further until 2030 Renewable share in final demand target Gross generation forecast European Commission Reference scenario GWh European Union target Portugal target 20% 31% 1 27% 40% % 7% 2% 24% % 6% 9% 32% Thermal Others RES 4 Solar Wind Impact on the power sector 50%-60% 60%-70% 3 38% 39% Hydro Scenarios PNAER 2013, RCM 20/ Target defined by the Government at the Compromisso para o Crescimento Verde, RCM 28/ EDP estimate 4. Mainly biomass-waste Source: EC, PNAER, Compromisso para o Crescimento Verde, European Commission 33

34 Questions? 34

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