European Energy Security and the Caspian Region

Transcription

1 PD Dr. Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies Freie Universität Berlin European Energy Security and the Caspian Region 15th Meeting of the REFORM Group, Schloss Leopoldskron, Austria September 6-10, 2010

2 Outline - The EU as energy policy actor - Caspian Sea Oil and gas reserves and resources - Most relevant questions and main problem - Geopolitics, Geo-economics and Caspian oil and gas - Summary 2

3 The EU as energy policy actor - Growing energy import dependency (70% in 2030) - Diversification of imports - Restricted competence of EU institutions - Diverging interests of EU member states (DK NL, UK) - EU member states and energy companies as importing and exporting actors (e.g. growing gas share in Germany + EU) - EU neighbourhood policy - EU as actor in conflict solution? - Climate change and environmental policy 3

4 Gas Balance of EU27 Source: BP

5 Main European Gas Suppliers Source: BP

6 The NABUCCO Project 4,000 47,570 1,770 33,530 4,520 6

7 Supply Sources for Nabucco Azerbaidschan bcm Egypt 8-10 bcm Iraq Iran bcm 7

8 Natural Gas Prices for the EU 8

9 The birth of a new region 1991 the Caspian Region evolves as an independent region Important problem for the newly independent states: Integration in the world market Existing rich oil and gas resources should stimulate the process 9

10 World conventional oil and gas reserves 10

11 Oil and gas resources of the Caspian Region 11

12 Projection of oil production Mt Russia Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan projection

13 Projection of future gas production bill. m³ Russia Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Azerbaijan projection

14 Most relevant questions and main problem - How is the Caspian Oil & Gas exported to the World market? - Why is the EU the largest donor county in the Caspian Region, with no relevant influence? - What happens with the oil & gas profit? Main Problem: - Struggle for secure transit and transport - Only two of the littoral states have access to the ocean Solutions: - Oil and gas pipelines (BTC, Nabucco, Bluestream, Southstream, TAP etc.) - LNG 14

15 The question rises: which countries could carry an effective transit function? Until recently the situation suited mainly Russia, which used the existing soviet time infrastructure to secure its own dominant position on the regional markets. 15

16 Geopolitics, Geo-economics and Caspian oil and gas - Geopolitical Issues - Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan & Turkmenistan as post-soviet rentier states (Petrostate, corruption etc.) - Iran - Russia - United States - PR China - Turkey (as energy bridge) - EU and EU member states (advantages & obstacles) - Geo-economical aspects - Currency question ( /US$) - Petrodollar/ -Recycling - Rent 16

17 Problem of the Caspian Region 17

18 The Eurasian Balkan 18

19 Geopolitical Problems 19

20 Gazprom Gas Purchaes in Central Asia Source: asia/ 20

21 Gazprom s Future Production 21 Source:

22 Gazprom s Strategic Plans Gazprom s strategic plans: doubling export volumes, but no growth of domestic supplies Gazprom s s vision of gas supply sources to 2030 (bcmpa;; best case scenario) 1000 Central Asian imports Independent gas producers Gazprom's own production 500 Under a minimum case scenario, Gazprom's own gas production will not exceed 546 bcm in 2010 and 595 bcm in 2030; first deliveries of Yamal Peninsula gas may be postponed to

23 China is becoming a net import market for gas. Source: BP

24 The future demand will be covert also through gas volumes from the Caspian Region from 10 bcm in 2010 to possibly up to 40 bcm. 24

25 Source: BP

26 Iran as Gas Transit Country jpg 26

27 Summary - The regional dependence on transit countries for the marketing of the production, leads to the question if the political factors even allow a diversification of the transport routes and a production increase - Resources, reserves and production potentials make the Caspian region attractive for potential buyers like China, India, EU, Russia or USA - The regional geopolitical setting shaped by diverging interests of the involved actors hinders a smooth integration of the region in to the world market 27

28 Thank you for your attention! PD Dr. Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies 28