The Asia-Pacific Region: A market niche for Russia s LNG, and price change drivers
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1 The Asia-Pacific Region: A market niche for Russia s LNG, and price change drivers Anastasiya Masalkova Senior Lecturer Department of Economy Theory, Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas Italy, Rome, June 12 th 2015
2 Focus and Overview of Key Topics RUSSIAN LNG PROJECTS LNG pricing APR s gas market A market niche for Russia s LNG in APR
3 Russian LNG projects
4
5 LNG Vectors at present..
6 and LNG Vectors in the Future
7 LNG exports reflect «managed competition» between the new oligopoly in Russian gas sector
8 Export sales based around LNG and piped gas
9 LNG Pricing
10 LNG-Commercial Interactions Between East and West
11 Oil-linked Pricing Dominant in Core Markets
12 Pricing of LNG example Data:
13 Does the drop in Asian LNG spot prices reflect a lack of LNG demand growth or the low oil price environment
14 The declining oil prices has capped LNG spot prices through oil switching, but the Asian LNG market has been weakening
15 APR s gas market
16 The Asia-Pacific Region (APR) APR: countries of South, East and South- East Asia and Oceania 16
17 APR s gas market: Facts The fastest growing demand for gas: over 5% per year(the average global rate being 2.2%) Gas share in the energy balance: 11% (the average share worldwide being 25%) The largest LNG market by volume: The region consumes up to 70% of the global LNG imports The APR accounts for 30% of LNG production 80%-the percentage of LNG in the imports Potential growth by 200% up to
18 Breakdown of gas consumption in the APR, 2012: 625 billion cub.m Share of gas consumption: 625 billion cub.m Gas consumption growth rates (the region s average being 5.0%) Pakistan 7% Malaysia 6% South Korea 8% Thailand 9% Others 12% China 24% 8,2% 9,9% 10,3% 8,8% 5,6% 7,8% 9,6% 10,6% Japan 19% India 9% Indonesia 6% 18
19 A market niche for Russia s LNG in APR
20 Forecasted production and consumption in the core markets 1400,0 1200,0 1000,0 800,0 Forecasted gas consumption by key regions, billions of m3/year 1038 Gas production and consumption in , North America Europe & Eurasia Asia Pacific Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 North America Europe & Eurasia Consumption Asia Pacific Production
21 The present and future of APR s gas market 2012 Total consumption: 625 billion m3 Imports; 155 Producti on; 470 Growth by 200% or 9% per year 2035 Total consumption: 1,274 billion m3 Imports; 447 Production 827 Source:BP 2013, Roberto F. Aguilera et al, The Asia Pacific natural gas market: Large enough for all?. Energy Policy, 2014.
22 APR s requirement of gas imports Additional requirement for imports from 2012 to 2035, billions of m Imports by2035: 447 billion m3, including: LNG 337 billionm3 (248 million t. LNG) PNG 110 billion m PNG 22% LNG 78%
23 Meeting the demand for LNG up to 2035, M tons/year Russian LNG supply projects 17, , Ямал СПГ Владивосток СПГ Печора СПГ 2. Contracted LNG in APR by Meeting the additional requirement for LNG imports Niche: 15 M tons/year 23 Китай 65,5 73, Япония и Корея Contracted LNG Demand for LNG
24 The Asia-Pacific Region: Current level of LNG prices
25 Pricing in the APR: Facts The LNG market in the region follows the pattern of Japanese LNG contracts: o The principle of Market Value Pricing: The LNG price is linked to the crude oil price as its key substitute in the target consumption sector (Japan) power generation Key price indices: o o JCC - Japanese Crude Cocktail ICP Indonesian Crude Oil Price Key price index formulas: o o Linear S-curve Prior to the 2000s, the LNG price was linked to the Asian Premium crude oil price with a premium. 25
26 APR s gas prices are higher than in the core markets APR (Japan) Europe APR Europe (UK) USA Europe Europe (UK) $/1,000m3 USA
27 Correlation between the price level and the indexation form $/MMBtu Correlation between LNG and crude oil prices in the APR Цена нефти марки Dubai Цена СПГ в Японии $/bbl Year CIF prices, $/1000m 3 Dubai crude, $/bbl
28 Correlation between the price level and the indexation form $/MMBtu Correlation between LNG and crude oil prices in the APR Цена нефти марки Dubai Цена СПГ в Японии $/bbl $/MMBtu $/MMBtu Linear formula LNG price Crude Oil price $/bbl S-curve $/bbl Crude oil Parity S-curve
29 LNG price level by the end of 2013 $/MMBtu China LNG Japan LNG S. Korea LNG Indian LNG Japan/Ko rea Marker (JKM) (Spot) Oil price parity at 100$/ bbl $/MMBtu 15,25 15,65 15,65 13,75 17,348 17,24 $/1000m Data: Federal Energy Commission USA, Plats $/1000m
30 Asia-Pacific Region Drivers of the LNG price change in APR
31 1. Exchange trading started in the APR May 2013: The LNG Hub opens in Singapore SLNG (Singapore LNG Terminal) capacity: 3.5 Mtpa(two-week gas consumption in Japan), with an option to expand up to 9.0 Mtpaand more. Prospects of LNG exchange trade in Singapore: Criticism: lack of volumes for gas (LNG) trading -low market liquidity. Facts: 1. Japanese, US, Australian, Indian and European companies are getting ready for participation in LNG trading: the traders are hired, the volumes are allocated. 2. The lack of APR market niche for Russian gas before 2025 opens an opportunity for short-term deals with Russian LNG at the Singapore Exchange.
32 How will exchange trading influence the regional price level? Initially, the low liquidity will inhibit full-scale LNG trading. The Singapore Hub will not be the main point for LNG trade but: It will turn into a supply balancing tool Price in hub will become an alternative price indicator(for oil baskets like JCC) It will contribute to a change in the regional price level Subsequently, it will result in pricing transformation in APR: migration from crude oil indexation to exchange pricing.
33 2. Prospects of methane hydrate production and its impact on LNG price Japan: Research of commercial production potential of natural gas hydrate (NGH) and subsequent power generation using marine plants by Implications of NGH commercial production launch in Japan: Increase in electricity supply reduction in electricity prices MH competing with LNG via electricity price LNG prices revised downward. Dissemination of production technologies to neighboring countries (China, Korea) LNG price revision linked to the electricity or MH cost.
34 Prospects of Russian gas exports to the APR There is a potential for increased LNG supplies from Russia to APR countries but: A flexible marketing strategy is required: o Long-term contracts combined with participation in exchange trade. o Pricing mechanisms for LNG contracts ensuring the competitiveness of prices for Russian gas in the buyer s end market, including: Crude oil price indexation, with downward revision ( - 10%) Use of exchange price indicator Hybrid model: exchange prices +crude oil price indexation: (30%/70%, 40%/60% etc.) Netback(or indexation) based on electricity and other prices. 34
35 References: 1. IGU World LNG Report Exxon Mobil BP Statistics SHWE Gas Movement. 5. IHS CERA, various sources. 6. BP Energy Outlook Eriras.ru. 8. Argusmedia.com.
36 Anastasiya Masalkova PhD Senior Lecturer Department of Economy Theory, Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, Leninsky prospect, 65-1, , Moscow, Russia
37 Thank you for your attention!
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