IEA CCS update. Tristan Stanley International Energy Agency CSLF Policy Group, Abu Dhabi 4 May 2017

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1 IEA CCS update Tristan Stanley International Energy Agency CSLF Policy Group, Abu Dhabi 4 May 2017

2 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage 1. Two decades of CCS progress 2. Towards well below 2 C: An increased role for CCS 3. The next 20 years: Picking up the pace

3 Two decades of significant progress 16 (now 17) large-scale projects operating Portfolio is becoming more diverse, including coal-fired power generation, oil sand upgrading and steel manufacture New projects advancing 6 more projects in construction, most due to commence in next months Technology is now proven in many applications; widespread deployment can deliver further cost reductions Scotford Upgrader (Source: Shell) Al Reyadah (Source: The National) Parish Petra Nova (Source: NRG) Gorgon (Source: Chevron)

4 Policy support has fluctuated Source: IEA (2016), 20 years of CCS: Accelerating Future Deployment. Adapted from SBC Energy Institute (2016), Low Carbon Energy Technologies Fact Book Update: Carbon Capture and Storage at a Crossroads.

5 Investment in CCS projects USD million Before Private investment in large-scale projects Public investment in large-scale projects Around USD 30 billion in public funding announcements were made between corresponding to a peak in CCS investment decisions 80% of capital investment has been from private sources

6 Global energy emissions peaked? Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Significant and sustained decline in emissions needed for a 2 C target (2DS) Gt Gt Three consecutive years of stable emissions alongside global GDP growth

7 A portfolio of technologies is needed to meet a 2 C target Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO 2 reductions DS Renewables 32% GtCO Energy efficiency 32% Fuel switching 10% Nuclear 11% DS CCS 15% CCS delivers 15% of the emissions reductions in the shift from a 4 C pathway to 2 C Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives, 2DS

8 Shifting to well below : Targeting remaining emissions in the 2DS Remaining CO 2 emissions in the 2DS in Other transformation Agriculture GtCO 2 20 Power Buildings 10 Transport Industry Industry the largest source of emissions in 2050 (45%); accounts for 33% of aggregate emissions to 2050 Power sector virtually decarbonised by 2050; but is the second-largest source of cumulative emissions in the period to 2050 (29%)

9 CCS is not on track for a 2 C future CCS has moved forward but is far from meeting its potential according to the 2DS If all projects known today were to proceed, the maximum capture rate would be less than 70 MtCO 2 Capture potential of the project pipeline, by sector. Data source: GCCSI

10 Delivering faster CCS progress 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT INCENTIVES CCS does not advance without targeted support Capital and operational incentives Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO 2 purchase contracts etc. etc.

11 Delivering faster CCS progress 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT 2. INFRASTRUCTURE INCENTIVES APPROACH CCS does not advance Prioritised without development targeted of support prospective storage Capital and operational areas and incentives sites Grants, tax incentives, Publicly-led feed-in storage-driven tariffs, CO 2 business model purchase contracts Decoupling etc. etc. of CCS chain through hubs

12 Delivering faster CCS progress 1. TARGETED DEPLOYMENT 3. SUPPORT INCENTIVES INNOVATION CHAIN CCS does not advance Moving without beyond targeted first support generation Capital and operational Co-ordinated incentives Technology RD&D Grants, tax incentives, feed-in tariffs, CO 2 purchase contracts etc. etc. Mission Innovation, TCPs, PPPs 2. INFRASTRUCTURE APPROACH Prioritised development of prospective storage areas and sites Publicly-led storage-driven business model Decoupling of CCS chain through hubs

13 20 Years of Carbon Capture and Storage

14 Coming up in June: Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 New edition of ETP: looking at energy transformation and a below 2 degree world 2060 modelling horizon Three key scenarios Reference Technology Scenario (RTS) 2-degree scenario (2DS) NEW: Beyond 2 degrees scenario (B2DS) Role of CCS remains critical in both industry and power, including for negative emissions CCS: focus on infrastructure

15 Other / forthcoming (non-exhaustive) 15 May: publication of Tracking Clean Energy Progress report (Bonn) May: workshop on CO 2 transport and storage (Paris) 6 June: launch of ETP-2017 (Beijing) BECCS: experts workshop in Oct/Nov 2017 (Paris) Regulatory issues: revisiting the IEA Model Regulatory Framework

16 Further publications in 2017 WEI 2017: launch 10 July Global energy investment trends A short section on CCS investment in the past years ( ) Sources of capital and revenue WEO 2017: launch 14 November Focus country: China Focus fuel: natural gas Deep-dive topic : energy & development

17 THANK YOU!