Harmony the Role of Nuclear Energy to meet electricity needs in the 2 degree scenario

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1 Harmony the Role of Nuclear Energy to meet electricity needs in the 2 degree scenario Agneta Rising Director General Harmony London March 2016

2 THE CURRENT STATUS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY 2

3 Accelerating rise in world electricity consumption World Energy Outlook 3

4 Global Nuclear Generation 4

5 Global Nuclear Status 5

6 Highest level of construction in twenty five years: 66 reactors worldwide China China 2015: 8 reactors began to deliver electricity 6 new construction starts 24 8 Russia 6 India Belarus 1 2 Chinese Taipei 2 Brazil Pakistan 2 Slovakia 2 France Argentina Finland 4 Japan 5 USA 4 South Korea UAE Source IAEA January

7 THE POTENTIAL OF NUCLEAR ENERGY TO DECARBONISE 7

8 Decarbonizing electricity generation vital by year 2100 Several sources incl. IPCC:

9 Nuclear is an important part of the low carbon solution 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Brazil Sweden Switzerland France Ontario (Canada) Coal Gas Other Large Hydro Renewables Nuclear 9

10 Strong framework in policy and regulation Confidence among stakeholders Basis for achievement: Harmony in nuclear energy deployment Affordable and reliable electricity, national energy independence 10

11 THE IEA 2 O C SCENARIO 11

12 IEA 2 C Scenario: Nuclear is Required to Provide the Largest Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050 Source: International Energy Agency 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 12

13 TWh The role of nuclear: Substantial growth required to meet demand in IEA 2 C scenario GW 11% of generation GW 150 GW 680 GW 6500 TWh 930 GW 8000 TWh Retirements Additions % of generation Source: IEA-NEA, 2015, Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, Paris: OECD-IEA: p. 22; Harmony - the role of nuclear energy in the IEA, 2degree 2015, scenario Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, Paris: OECD-IEA 13

14 Nuclear makes quick, lasting decarbonisation possible Source: Geoff Russell nuclear has scaled far more rapidly than renewables 14

15 HOW TO ACHIEVE REQUIRED NUCLEAR NEW BUILD 15

16 Harmony objectives Level playing field Harmonised regulatory processes Effective safety paradigm 16

17 Level playing field: the challenge of deregulated markets Deregulated markets should be reformed to: support capital investments include grid system costs eliminate nuclear-only taxes reform subsidies give credit for low carbon emissions 17

18 Time for an effective safety paradigm Paul Scherrer Institut 1998: considering 1943 accidents with more than 5 fatalities The alternatives to nuclear are far more dangerous even including accidents Chiba refinery fire Smog in Beijing 18

19 Harmonised regulatory processes Enhance standardisation Harmonise and update global codes and standards Streamline licensing processes Ensure efficient and effective safety regulation Enabling international trade Nuclear innovation: enable development and licensing of new technologies 19

20 READY TO DELIVER MORE NUCLEAR NEW BUILD TO ENSURE IEA 2 O C SCENARIO: HARMONY GOAL IS 1000 GW 20

21 Nuclear energy should go beyond IEA projection 11% of generation TWh GW 2400 TWh 150GW 1000 GW 9200 TWh 1250 GW TWh Retirements Additions 0 0 GW % of generation Source: IEA-NEA, 2015, Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, Paris: OECD-IEA: p. 22; IEA, 2015, Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, Paris: OECD-IEA 21

22 To deliver 1000 GW new nuclear capacity to 2050 Historic connection rate in the mid of 1980s was 31 GW per year. Present connection rate is at 5 GW per year. Period Connection rate Added capacity GW per year GW Connection Rate Total new nuclear capacity 1000 GW

23 HOW TO ACHIEVE THE HARMONY GOAL 23

24 The global nuclear industry: identify barriers, engage in dialog, develop key actions Level playing field: Establish a level playing field for all low-carbon technologies, valuing not only environmental qualities, but also reliability and grid system costs. Harmonise regulatory processes: enhance standardisation, harmonise and update global codes and standards. Effective safety paradigm: Ensure global nuclear safety. Confidence in management of nuclear technology and operations. Stakeholder trust. Risks in perspective. 24

25 Harmony goal 1000 gigawatt new nuclear capacity by % of electricity supply 2050 Level playing field Harmonised regulatory processes Effective safety paradigm Nuclear energy to deliver reliable, affordable and clean electricity 25

26 Increase accessibility to nuclear energy Markets must recognise nuclear energy benefits Governments must take action to ensure that electricity is delivered by the second, now and decades into the future Policies are needed to steer us to an environmentallysound energy mix. Deregulated markets, while promoting competition, are leading to prioritisation of short term returns over more environmentally sustainable and economically sound long-term investments. Nuclear industry must play its role Keep nuclear competitive, deliver on time and to budget. Build confidence among its stakeholders about the reliable, affordable and clean nature of nuclear energy. 26

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