Adaptation: Advising Local Governments on Climate Change Vulnerability

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1 Local Government Commission Building Livable Communities Ahwahnee Hotel Adaptation: Advising Local Governments on Climate Change Vulnerability March 12,

2 Planning for Climate Vulnerability Exec. Order S ( ) Climate data indicating faster changes State Climate Adaptation Strategy OPR guidance for land-use planning with sea-level rise, climate impacts 3 Executive Order S California Sea Level Rise Assessment by NAS (completed by 12/1/10) Public workshop on sea-level rise by 3/31/09 All construction projects must consider a range of sea-level rise scenarios during planning Report of transportation project vulnerability Develop Climate Adaptation Strategy by 6/30/09 Provide state land use planning guidance related to sea-level rise and other climate change impacts by 5/30/09 4

3 Climate Adaptation Strategy Coordinated by the Natural Resources Agency Objectives: Collect, synthesize, and communicate vulnerability information Use a 50-year climate impact timeline Establish a baseline to measure change Outline solutions that promote resiliency Identify future work needs Provide policy guidance on low or no cost solutions Recommend emergency plans for high-risk areas Set up partnerships to implement the CAS 5 Climate Adaptation Strategy Working Groups Climate Adaptation Working Groups to prioritize strategies in six areas: Biodiversity and Habitat Infrastructure (roads, levees, buildings) Oceans and Coastal Resources Public Health Water Working Landscapes (forestry and agriculture) 6

4 Key Climate Change Adaptation Effects Several adaptation issues are important. Four raised most often: Reduced snowpack Increased flood hazards Sea-level rise Increased risk of wildfires 7 Reduced Snowpack DWR planning for 25% - 40% reduction by 2050 In 2050, this would be a water storage reduction of 4.5 to 7.2 million acre-feet (equals 5 8 Folsom Reservoirs) Earlier runoff makes filling reservoirs more difficult 8

5 Predicted Snowpack Decrease Low Emissions Range 30 60% Medium Emissions Range 70 80% High Emissions Range 90% 9 Location of Snowpack Losses 10

6 Planning and CEQA Approaches Snowpack Loss and Water Supply Baseline may need to consider ranges of snowpack loss and decreased water supply; data from DWR and other sources Setting should describe purveyor s water management plan Consider planning horizon of project; future noproject scenario may have high and low water supply sideboards Assess project water needs under normal, dry, and multiple dry year conditions 11 Planning and CEQA Approaches Snowpack Loss and Water Supply Consider water conservation measures that would be imposed by water purveyor Consider regional solutions that may be under consideration by purveyor, DWR, or others (e.g. regional conjunctive use) Consider additional, feasible, project-specific water conservation measures that could be imposed Tell the whole water story! 12

7 Climate Change Influence on Flood Hazard USGS Scripps Institute of Oceanography research updates rainstorm expectations With 5.4 F warming, 5 to 15 additional days per year with 1 rain in Sierra Nevada expected Potential for extreme precipitation events may increase (+50% by 2100) 13 Atmospheric Rivers 14

8 Role of Atmospheric Rivers in California Hydrometeorology Source of many extreme events with high snow levels Source of a large fraction of total rainfall Hard to predict timing, location, magnitude Conditions for more frequent and/or stronger atmospheric rivers may occur with warming climate (i.e., cold jet stream migrates north, pulling subtropical moisture north more research needed) 15 Planning and CEQA Approaches Flood Hazard Analysis Describe the historic flood characteristics and consider climate-driven changes, as studies emerge Describe existing flood-control facilities and management strategies Describe future or planned flood control improvements Again, may consider a range of future no project conditions, including influence of climate change Project location: is it vulnerable today? 16

9 Planning and CEQA Approaches Flood Hazard Analysis Use predictive models, or general information from the flood control agency to describe potential future flood conditions Is the project in harm s way? Consider setbacks, increased elevation, potential redesign 17 Sea Level Rise - Climate Change Predictions Have Worsened California Climate Change Center (CEC and CalEPA), February 2006 Medium scenario warming range (5.5-8 F, ) inches sea level rise 2007 CalFed Independent Science Board inches sea level rise Nearly double the previously predicted rise Look for results of California-initiated NAS study 18

10 Meter y 19 Planning and CEQA Approaches Sea Level Rise Effects Describe existing range of low, high, and higher-high water keep up with research! Make use of predictive models to describe range of future water elevations Is project vulnerable at its proposed elevation? Consider secondary effects: sea water intrusion into aquifers serving the project, beach/coastal bluff erosion 20

11 Planning and CEQA Approaches Sea Level Rise Effects Increased setbacks (serious land use implications) Increased elevation to preclude or minimize potential for inundation from sea level rise Coastal protection structures (significant infrastructure cost implications) 21 Warmer Conditions, Longer Droughts Increase Wildfire Risk Change in frequency of larger fires Change in location of the greater risks 22

12 Increased Wildfire Risk % CHANGE IN EXPECTED MINIMUM NUMBER OF LARGE FIRES PER YEAR LOWER WARMING RANGE MEDIUM WARMING RANGE + 55% Wildfire Risks at the Wildland/Urban Interface 24

13 2007 Southern California Fires October 14 Through October 21 Example of fire weather conditions expected to occur more often 25 Areas of Increased Wildfire Risk 26

14 Planning and CEQA Approaches Wildfire Impact Analysis Consider increased risk of wildfire as a key environmental impact area Describe the existing setting with respect to potential wildfire hazard Topography, elevation, slope, aspect Historical fire occurrence Climate and weather Surface and canopy fuels, type, density Location relative to wildland urban interface (WUI) 27 Planning and CEQA Approaches Wildfire Impact Analysis Describe project location with respect to wildfire probability under various warming scenarios Describe fuels management and wildfire prevention programs undertaken by agencies and districts in the project area Consider appropriate mitigation Defensible space Fire-resistant building materials Appropriate landscaping Emergency preparedness Public education 28

15 Other Important Adaptation Issues Heat Waves Human Health 29 Other Important Adaptation Issues Biodiversity and Habitat Shifts Agriculture 30

16 Upcoming Events and Actions What to Expect Next? Upcoming Events to Watch: CEQA SB 97 CEQA Guidelines Rulemaking Process Comment period on preliminary draft ended February 6 Initiation of formal rulemaking by the Natural Resources Agency soon Many comments requested checklist questions on climate vulnerability Scheduled to complete by January 1,

17 Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation California Climate Adaptation Strategy Public Workshop in March 2009 Report due June 2009 Watch the website for draft sections National Academy of Sciences Planning Target for Sea Level Rise 33 Planning Guidance OPR Land Use Guidance for Climate Adaptation (due May 30, 2009) OPR General Plan Guidance Amendments 34

18 Advice on Addressing Climate Vulnerability 35 Conduct a Climate Vulnerability Risk Assessment for your community keep up with evolving research! Require vulnerability/adaption in your CEQA documents Incorporate responses to climate vulnerability in General Plan updates Consider vulnerability in infrastructure planning Watch for information from OPR, CAS, and NAS study LGC could initiate a climate adaptation assistance program for local governments Local Government Commission Building Livable Communities Ahwahnee Hotel Thank you EDAW AECOM 2022 J Street (916) sydney.coatsworth@edaw.com