Air Pollution Management and Modeling - Indian Perspective

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1 Air Pollution Management and Modeling - Indian Perspective GUFRAN BEIG Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune ( beig@tropmet.res.in) 1

2 Contents Air Quality Concerns Current Statust of AQM Air Quality trends Air Chemistry Modeling Way Forward -Forecasting

3 Air Quality Concerns METROS CITIES/URBAN AREAS 53 non-attainment cities Dominant Sources: Vehicular Emissions, Small/Medium Scale Industries, Gensets, Biomass burning, etc. Pollutants: Ozone, NO x, SPM /PM2.5,1.0 & CO CRITICALLY POLLUTED AREAS 24 critically polluted areas Dominant Sources: Industries-Power Plants, Refineries, i Chemical Plants, etc.) Pollutants: Ozone, NO x, SPM/PM2.5, SO 2 VOCs, PAHs, etc. RURAL AREAS Indoor air pollution: Use of Biomass, Coal, kerosene, etc. Outdoor air pollution: Unpaved roads, Biomass burning, Gen-sets etc. Pollutants: Ozone, SPM/PM2.5, 1.0, CO, etc.

4 Major Policy Implications: Discussion Points Transport sector focus: Why and why not? Fuel quality CNG vs Diesel: Ban on diesel Retrofitting old vehicles : buses, auto others Pricing of different fuels Taxes on vehicle ownership Ban on low cost cars Shifting of bus terminus outside city limit Public transport vis a vis personal transport 4

5 Current Status of AQM Institutional Mechanism Assessment of Air Quality Monitoring Emission Inventory Source Apportionment Air Pollution Exposure & Health Impacts Control Strategies City Specific AQM Action Plans

6 Fuel Quality Fuel Change MAJOR INTERVENTIONS AND POLICY CHANGES Emission standards (COP EURO/Bharat) Industrial policy Industrial Fuel Quality Domestic Fuel Quality (LPG/PNG) 6

7 Control Strategies Adopted Air Quality Standards notified (1982 & 1994) and Air Pollution Control areas declared Emission Standards notified for Industries (, Vehicles (in- use & new), Gensets, etc. Fuel quality improvements. (Coal, gasoline & diesel). Relocation of polluting industries, phasing out older polluting vehicles, introduction of mass rapid transportation, etc. Road map for control of emissions from new and in-use vehicles developed up to year 2010 Use of Alternate fuel (CNG,LPG,Ethanol petrol, Bio-diesel, Hydrogen,etc.)

8 No Specifications Gasoline Benzene Reduction Programme in India Before % June g/l (4 metro) April % in Metro cities Unleaded 4 metros April 1995 Low leaded Entire Country Jan 1997 April 2000 Jan 1999 Nov % in NCT & Mumbai 3 % in all India & 1% in Major Metros April Unleaded NCR Gasoline Lead Phase-out Programme In India Unleded Country Feb 2000 April % in all India

9 Vehicle Emission Norm Schedule In India Emission norms for catalytic vehicles 1 st set norms notified 1990 Euro-I equivalent (Country) Euro-II eqv. For cars (4 metros) 2 nd set norms notified 1995 April April-2005 Euro-II (Country) Euro-III (11 cities) Euro-III (Country) Euro-IV (11 cities) 2000/01 April April-2000 April 1998 Sulphur 0.05% 11 cities Sulphur 0.05% Entire Country & (11 cities) Sulphur 0.005% 005% (11 cities) & 0.035% (Entire Country) 2010 August 1997 April April6 Sulphur 0.25% Metro cities Sulphur 0.25% Entire Country Sulphur 0.50 % 4 metros & Taj Sulphur 0.25% Delhi & Taj Diesel Sulphur Reduction Programme

10 IMPACT OF INTERVENTIONS ON AIR QUALITY OF DELHI (1996 Vs. 2007) 207

11 Air Quality Trends O3 Very few measurements. Neglected by CPCB. NO2 Increasing trend by 0.5-1% /year in India. Exceeding standard around 50 days /year at Pashan (IITM) Exceeding standard in many showing increasing trend in some metros metros PM2.5Exceeding standard in most cities except Delhi and SPM Exceeding standard in most metros but with no CO definite trends Decreasing trend in Delhi but no trends in Pune

12 Why forecast air quality? Pollutants of concern Pollutant Carbon Monoxide Sulfur Dioxide Ozone Nitrogen Dioxide Hydrocarbon Compounds Particulate Matter Abbreviation CO SO 2 O 3 NO 2 HC PM

13 Why forecast air quality? How are forecasts used: Protect public health Operate emissions reduction programs Conduct special monitoring

14 What is needed? 2. Air quality monitoring program Monitor network Historical data Real-time monitoring system

15 What is needed? 3. Understanding the interactions Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area Forecast the processes that affect air p quality, then predict the air quality

16 OUR EFFORTS 16

17 Air Pollution Modeling Efforts in India CPCB efforts are mainly directedd towards hot spot area monitoring and control strategy management Majority of the scientific institutions in India are involved in dispersion modeling A few institutions are really involved in Whole chemistrytransport modeling. Efforts of IITM, Pune in large and medium scale air pollution air pollution modeling (CTM). Marching towards achieving capability to predict short g g p y p term pollution level on a wider but local scale.

18 Coupling of different aspects for Air Pollution Modeling

19 ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY-TRANSPORT MODELING (1) Global: Troposphere & LS (0-40 km) MOZART (1.8 o x 1.8 o, 1 km) ( ) (2) Development of Emission Inventory for India (3) Regional: Air Pollution Model Near Surface /LT REMO-Chem (Indian /South Asian domain) (1/2 o x1/2 o, 1 km)

20 Weather v/s Pollutant Predict weather Predict weather s effect on emissions sso s and chemistry Estimate AQ concentration Convert to Air Index for the public Ozone Clouds= reduced sunlight Slows photochemistry O 3 = low Good AQI PM Cold Inversion traps wood-burning emissions PM 2.5 = High Unhealthy API

21 Emission i Inventory Initiatives in India 21 Global Change Program (CSIR, New Delhi and MoEF, New Delhi) led by NPL ( ). 1993). ALGAS (Asian least cost GHG amendment strategy) (Asian Development Bank &MoEF): Several Indian Institution ( ). NATCOM (Indian s National Communication, P-1), MoEF, New Delhi (parties to UNFCCC) ( ). Latest Emission inventories using GIS methodology IITM, Pune

22 EMISSION STATUS Gridded New Indian Emission Inventory of all important pollutants in ½x½ degree resolution ready (IITM+NPL) In India, maximum contribution is from coal sources for BC emissions. For CO, maximum contribution is from bio-fuel sources and for NOx, maximum contribution is from fossil fuel sources in the present time. 22

23 EDGAR-Emissions (A) Surface New Indian-Emissions (B) EDGAR-Overestimates Absolute Difference (A - B)

24 Road Map Building capability to predict short term pollution level on a wider but local scale in 2 years time. Role of aerosols in modulating the Indian summer monsoon? 24

25 25

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