Introduction to Economic Modeling and Forecasting

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1 Introduction to Economic Modeling and Forecasting Hawaii PUC Biomass/ Biofuels Training Program Andy Aden, John Ashworth, Joelle Simonpietri, Scott Turn April 11, 2012

2 EIA Forecasts Energy Information Administration (EIA) within DOE uses the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), Energy sector model Forecasts include energy production, demand, imports, and prices through 2030/2035 Regional model Electricity sector broken into 15 regions (NERC) Petroleum Market Model uses 5 PADD regions Reference case Generally assumes current laws and regulations Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected to become commercial over next decade or so

3 Key Updates included in the AEO2011 Natural Gas and Oil Supply Reference Case more than doubled the technically recoverable U.S. shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources updated offshore data and assumptions, pushing out start dates for several projects as a result of the drilling moratoria and delaying offshore leasing beyond 2017 Electricity updated costs for new power plants expanded number of electricity regions to 22 from 13, allowing better regional representation of market structure and power flow Transport increased limit for ethanol blending into gasoline from E10 to E15 for approved vehicles includes California s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that state by 10% from 2012 through 2020 revised light duty vehicle miles travelled downward updated electric and plug-in hybrid electric battery cost and size AEO2011, April

4 Renewables grow rapidly, but under current policies fossil fuels still provide 78% of U.S. energy use in 2035 U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu per year History % 21% 2009 Shares of total U.S. energy Projections Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) Coal 10% 21% 60 25% Natural gas 24% 40 1% Liquid biofuels 3% 20 37% Oil and other liquid fuels 33% 9% 8% Nuclear Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 AEO2011, April

5 Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the full AEO2011 will include a wide range of oil prices annual average price of low sulfur crude oil real 2009 dollars per barrel History 2009 Projections High Oil Price AEO2011 Reference Low Oil Price Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 AEO2011, April

6 $4.50 Prices Forecast - EIA 2011 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) US Average, Reference Case, year $2009 years dollars $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ Ethanol (E85) 3/ Ethanol Wholesale Price Motor Gasoline 4/ Jet Fuel 5/ Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil) 6/

7 U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production including biofuels and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day History % 10% 34% Projections Biofuels including imports Natural gas plant liquids Liquids from coal Petroleum supply 11% 13% 3% 32% % Net petroleum imports 41% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 AEO2011, April

8 Biofuels fall short of the goal in 2022, but exceed the 36 billion gallon RFS target by 2031 billions ethanol-equivalent gallons RFS with adjustments under CAA Sec.211(o)(7) Legislated RFS in Biodiesel Net imports Other Advanced Cellulosic biofuels Corn ethanol Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 AEO2011, April

9 Exxon-Mobil Outlook for Energy Updated yearly Takes a very long time horizon to 2040 Very macro-scale Changes in OECD vs. rest of the world Changing trends among fuels (coal vs. oil vs. natural gas, vs renewables) Looks in projected trends in every sector (electricity, industry, transportation) by region and by technology

10 Exxon-Mobil Outlook (continued) Results are sobering for the U.S. (and for Hawaii) Demand for energy in China, India and Latin America will exceed that in the U.S., Europe, and other OECD countries by Global electricity demand will rise 80% Shift will be toward low carbon fuels for power Natural gas Nuclear Wind and other renewables

11 Virtually All the Growth in Energy Demand is Outside the OECD Countries

12 Exxon-Mobil Outlook (continued)

13 Exxon Mobil Outlook (continued)

14 BP Energy Outlook Much more Eurocentric than Exxon-Mobil Nearer term focus to 2030 Sees near-term penetration of renewables and energy conservation and a rapid transition away from coal for power generation

15 BP Energy Outlook (continued)

16 BP Energy Outlook (continued)

17 Country by country comparisons of Power generation by fuel type Fossil fuel consumption CO2 emissions by country by year Mostly focused on current and recent past rather than long-term trends Has just started to cover renewable energy trends for the medium term to 2017

18 Department of Defense Fuel Budgeting New techniques under consideration: 1. Market strategy to address price volatility 2. Contracting strategy to address absolute price 3. Commercialization strategy to address absolute price

19 Scenesetter: Price Movements Volatile Performance Smooth trend Past Future Traditional Forecasting Assumptions: Volatility in a global commodity like petroleum is caused by factors beyond our control Absolute price is only marginally controllable

20 Reality: High Price Volatility

21 Market Strategy to Deal with Volatility: Borrow portfolio principles from financial sector Source: peopleandplanet.com Even though the inputs become more correlated over time, the portfolio is still better off

22 Contracting Strategy to Stabilize Price Non-petroleum Index

23 Commercialization Strategy to Reach Competitive Price Desired Cost Path 1) Buy Down the Capital Cost $ per Gallon Petroleum Reference Price Technical: Scale, productivity, coproducts Business: Grants, loans, tax credits, private investment etc. provided by DOE, USDA, DoD DPA Title III, state & local interests, and others 2) DoD purchase price for bulk fuels includes only the value it directly receives Profit for supply chain + Long-term Stable-price premium + GHG Premium/other Time (years)

24 Progress as To Date Along Cost Reduction Path 400 $ per Gallon 150 Fuel Cost Trend Actual Costs (at test quantities) Target Cost <$3/gal JP8 Ideally by Time (years)

25 Numerous Liquid Biofuels Transportation Options Biomass Feedstocks Lignocellulosic Biomass (wood, agri, waste, grasses, etc.) Ag residues, (stover, bagasse) Gasification Pyrolysis & Liquefaction Intermediates Syn Gas Bio-Oils Lignin Fermentation Catalytic synthesis FT synthesis MeOH synthesis HydroCracking/Treating Catalytic upgrading Transportation Fuels Ethanol & Mixed Alcohols Diesel* Methanol MTG Gasoline* Diesel* Gasoline* & Diesel* Sugar/Starch Crops (corn, sugar cane, etc.) Hydrolysis Sugars APP Catalytic pyrolysis APR Diesel* Gasoline* Hydrogen Fermentation Ethanol, Butanol, Hydrocarbons Natural Oils (plants, algae) Transesterification Hydrodeoxygenation Biodiesel Green diesel * Blending Products

26 Technoeconomic Analysis - Approach Collaborate with engineering & construction firm to enhance credibility, quality Better access to vendors for quotations Conceptual design reports are transparent, highly peer reviewed Assumes n th -plant project costs and financing (ignores first-of-a-kind risks) Iteration with researchers and experimentalists is crucial Minimum product selling price (MESP or MFSP) = minimum price fuel must sell for in order for net present value (NPV) of zero or greater Includes internal rate of return (IRR) R&D Conceptual Process Design Material and Energy Balance Capital and Project Cost Estimates Economic Analysis Environmental / Sustainability Analysis DOE Goals 26

27 Cellulosic Ethanol Design Report - Biochemical Enzyme Production Pretreatment Conditioning Enzymatic Hydrolysis Cofermentation of C5 & C6 Sugars Product Recovery Ethanol Hybrid Saccharification & Fermentation - HSF Residue Processing By-products Conceptual design of a 2,000 tonnes/day commercial plant one possible tech package, not optimized NREL pilot plant based on this process Basis for connecting R&D targets to cost targets Has undergone rigorous peer review Basis for comparison against other technology options

28 BC Conversion to Cellulosic Ethanol Historic State Significant of Technology Cost Reduction of Cellulosic Ethanol Resulting from R&D $10.00 $9.00 $9.16 Bench Scale - Enzymes Conversion Feedstock Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (2007$ per gallon) $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $6.90 $5.33 $4.27 $3.85 Scale Up Pretreatment $3.64 $3.57 Scale Up Saccharification $3.18 $2.77 $2.56 $2.15 $1.00 $

29 State of Technology Biochemical Platform Targets Minimum Ethanol Selling Price ($/gal) $3.64 $3.56 $3.19 $2.77 $2.56 $2.15 Feedstock Contribution ($/gal) $1.12 $1.04 $0.95 $0.82 $0.76 $0.74 Conversion Contribution ($/gal) $2.52 $2.52 $2.24 $1.95 $1.80 $1.41 Yield (Gallon/dry ton) Feedstock Feedstock Cost ($/dry ton) $77.20 $72.90 $69.65 $61.30 $59.60 $58.50 Pretreatment Solids Loading (wt%) 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Xylan to Xylose (including enzymatic) 75% 75% 84% 85% 88% 90% Xylan to Degradation Products 13% 11% 6% 8% 5% 5% Conditioning Ammonia Loading (ml per L Hydrolyzate) Hydrolyzate solid-liquid separation Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Xylose Sugar Loss 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% Glucose Sugar Loss 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Enzymes Enzyme Contribution ($/gal EtOH) $0.39 $0.38 $0.36 $0.36 $0.34 $0.34 Enzymatic Hydrolysis & Fermentation Total Solids Loading (wt%) 20% 20% 20% 17.5% 17.5% 20% Combined Saccharification & Fermentation Time (d) Corn Steep Liquor Loading (wt%) 1% 1% 1% 1% 0.25% 0.25% Overall Cellulose to Ethanol 86% 86% 84% 86% 89% 86% Xylose to Ethanol 76% 80% 82% 79% 85% 85% Arabinose to Ethanol 0% 0% 51% 68% 47% 85%

30 Cost by Area

31 Integration With Existing Fuels Infrastructure National Advanced Biofuels Consortium (NABC), Biomass Refinery-Ready Intermediates Finished Fuels and Blendstocks Insertion Point #1: Insertion Point #2: Insertion Point #3: Crude Oil Atmospheric and Vacuum Distillation Gas L Naphtha H Naphtha LGO VGO Atm. Res. Vac. Res. Reform FCC Alky/Poly HT/HC Coker Gasoline Jet Fuel Diesel Fuel Existing Refinery Infrastructure 31

32 32 Algae Technoeconomics and Dashboard Tools Cost of Production ($/gal) Cost of TAG/Diesel Production (OP vs PBR) $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 Operating ($/gal of product) $10.00 Capital ($/gal of product) Land ($/gal of product) $5.00 NREL has developed for DOE baseline economics for algae pathways: - Open pond (autotrophic) - Closed photobioreactor (autotrophic) NREL has also created simple spreadsheet dashboard tools $0.00 OP (TAG) PBR (TAG) OP (Diesel) PBR (Diesel)

33 Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) Systems Dynamics SUPPLY CHAIN Feedstock Production Feedstock Logistics Biofuels Production Biofuels Distribution Biofuels End Use Feedstock Logistics Module o Multiple logistics stages o Cost breakdowns o Transportation distance o Land eligibility Feedstock Supply Module o 6 Feedstock types o 10 geographic regions o 10+ land uses o Farmer decision logic o Land allocation dynamics o New agriculture practices o Markets and prices Distribution Logistics Module o Implicit distribution modes o Regional depot/storage o Transport costs o Inter-regional transport Conversion Module o 5 conversion platforms o 4 development stages o 6 learning attributes o Cascading learning curves o Project economics o Industry growth and investment dynamics DYNAMIC MODELS OF SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE, PHYSICAL CONSTRAINTS, MARKETS, AND DECISION MAKING Vehicle Module o 7 vehicle technologies o 4 efficiency classes o Fleet ageing o E10/E20/E85 potential Dispensing Station Module o Fueling-station economics o Fuel-choice dynamics o Distribution-coverage effects POLICIES INCENTIVES EXTERNALITIES

34 Hawaii Specific Economic Models

35 35 Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) 1. A project-level tool in Excel ( To estimate the number of jobs (and income, economic activity), that will accrue to the state from the project 2. Input-output analysis (or multiplier analysis) A method of summing the impacts of a series of effects generated by an expenditure (e.g., jobs/million dollar purchase of inputs) Multipliers in JEDI derived from IMPLAN 2008 multipliers: reflect the economic conditions (e.g., interindustry relationships, jobs supported by industries, and industry demand) in 2008

36 36 JEDI model (cont d) 3. Total employment effects, including Direct jobs: project development and onsite labor Indirect jobs: local revenue and supply chain effects Induced jobs: effects driven by re-investment and spending of earnings Total jobs: Total jobs = Direct + Indirect + Induced

37 Jobs Creation JEDI Model Estimation for Hawaii Assumptions: 61 MM gal/yr cellulosic ethanol, bagasse at $75/dry ton, Biochemical Conversion Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results Jobs Earnings Output During construction period $MM (2007) $MM (2007) Direct Impacts 683 $58.18 $94.65 Construction Sector Only 385 $45.59 Indirect Impacts 258 $9.52 $28.48 Induced Impacts 417 $13.70 $44.35 Total Impacts (Direct, Indirect, Induced) 1,358 $81.39 $ During operating years (annual) Direct Impacts 1067 $20.62 $66.74 Plant Workers Only 68 $2.44 Agricultural Sector Only 944 $15.98 Other Workers 54 $2.19 Indirect Impacts 162 $4.62 $16.01 Induced Impacts 205 $6.72 $21.74 Total Impacts (Direct, Indirect, Induced) 1,434 $31.95 $ Notes: Earnings and Output values are millions of dollars in year 2007 dollars. Construction period related jobs are full- time equivalent for the 3 year construction period. Plant workers includes operators, maintenance, administration and management. Economic impacts "During operating years" represent impacts that occur from plant operations/ expenditures. The analysis does not include impacts associated with spending of plant "profits" and assumes no tax abatement unless noted. Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.

38 Analysis at NREL Biomass Key Analytic Strengths and Capabilities at NREL 1) Technoeconomics Cost Driven R&D 2) Sustainability Analysis Life cycle assessment, metrics and optimization strategies 3) Other Analyses (resource assessment, policy, etc) - Biomass Scenario Model - Biorefinery Linear Programming (LP) model NREL centers collaborate with each other and other national labs ORNL (Resource availability, production, land use change) INL (Feedstock harvesting, storage and logistics) NREL (Biomass conversion technologies, analysis) PNNL (Thermochemical conversion) ANL (Separations, life cycle assessment) NREL analysis helping to shape the future of biomass industry: - RFS II - Industrial models - Energy outlooks 38

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