MISO Winter Generator Fuel Survey Results on Gas Fired Generation

Transcription

1 MISO Winter Generator Fuel Survey Results on Gas Fired Generation Mark Thomas Electric Gas Operations Coordinator Phil Van Schaack Manager Unit Commitment and Dispatch November 30, 2016

2 Executive Summary MISO appreciates stakeholder participation and OMS support in the 3 rd winter generator fuel survey The survey advances MISO operations and improves situational awareness for the upcoming winter Participation climbed to a high of 63,600 MW (or 87% of gas-fired capacity in the MISO Commercial Model) Generators report a high level of winter preparedness, but some areas warrant further clarification Results indicate generator connections to over 30 gas systems, including improved information on plants serviced by local distribution companies (LDCs) Approximately 28,900 MW (40% of gas-fired capacity) report reliance solely on firm transportation and/or dual-fuel capability Though an increase from the previous survey, questions remain as MISO expects gas reliance to grow Increased pipeline services were reported, providing flexibility to generators in need of enhanced operations 2

3 The primary goal of the survey is to advance MISO operations and improve situational awareness for the upcoming winter Survey provides a regional view on winterization and fuel supply setting Improves MISO s generator / pipeline mapping database, including important baseline information Gas system interconnection, upstream pipeline, dual-fuel capabilities, etc. Promotes further optimization of MISO operational tools Pipeline Notification Website, Fuel Impact Report, Electric-Gas Pipeline Map Display Helps identify future focus areas as gas-fired generation increases This year s survey featured more concise, user-friendly and focused questions 3

4 Participation in the 2016 survey increased, notably in sub-regions having higher winter operational risk Approximately 63,600 MW of gas-fired capacity completed the 2016 survey Represents 87% of gas-fired capacity registered in the MISO Commercial Model (CM) 174 gas-fired facilities responded out of 217 An increase to the 2015 survey where 139 natural gas-fired generators (52,300 MW) participated Portion of MISO with highest winter fuel related risk *Survey results and calculations based on reported facility MW capacity 4

5 Results demonstrate a large and diverse fleet of gasfired capacity with connections to over 30 gas systems Approximately 46,550 MW (65%) connected directly to intrastate and interstate pipelines An additional 19,000 MW are connected to multiple pipelines (notably in MISO South) Approximately 16,000 MW (22%) connected via LDC Pipeline vs. LDC Interconnections Top 5 Interconnected Pipelines in MISO N/C MW Northern Natural Gas 7,020 NGPL 3,453 ANR 2,947 Great Lakes 2,460 Panhandle 2,080 Top 5 Interconnected Pipelines in MISO South MW Columbia Gas 6,220 Gulf South 6,080 Texas Eastern 5,270 Tennessee 3,770 Acadian 3,670 22% 65% Pipeline LDC No Response to Suvey Top 5 Pipelines in MISO Connected via LDC MW ANR 7,760 Greak Lakes 1,710 Texas Gas 1,020 NGPL 490 Northern Natural Gas 482 Approximately 70% of MISO North/Central capacity is connected to 5 pipelines via direct connect or LDC *MW values for MISO South inflated due to several gas units connecting to multiple pipelines, which causes double counting 5

6 The survey also provided improved information on generators connected to LDCs, where MISO has limited visibility Nearly all connections via LDC are in the North/Central region LDCs are regulated at the state level Top 5 LDCs Comprise 58% of Reported LDC Connected Capacity 42% 9% 17% 9% 14% 9% SEMCO DTE Gas (MichCon) Wisconsin Gas Alliant (WI P&L) Citizens Gas Others Top 10 LDC Interconnections MW SEMCO 2,700 DTE Gas (MichCon) 2,210 Wisconsin Gas 1,510 Alliant (WI P&L) 1,500 Citizens Gas 1,380 Wisconsin Public Service 1,230 We Energies 930 Consumers 920 MidAmerican 900 NIPSCO 710 6

7 Survey results inform MISO s situational awareness for the upcoming winter Variations on gas resource availability FT is Firm Transportation, IT is Interruptible Transportation 7

8 Generators report a generally high level of winter preparedness, though some areas warrant further clarification Approx. 55,000 MW (76%) report the use of a detailed weatherization plan 11% Reported a Detailed Weatherization Plan 76% Weatherization measures reported include the following Heaters Insulation Heat Trace Wind Break Equipment Shelters Yes No No Response to Survey Approx. 63,100 MW (86%) report operating within the last 6-months on primary fuel 3% 1% 9% Last Start on Primary Fuel 74% Within the past month Within the past 3-months Within the past 6-months Within the past 12-months No Response to Survey Less than half of gas-fired capacity holding secondary fuel have operated on backup within the last year 8

9 Approximately 28,900 MW (40%) of capacity report reliance solely on firm transportation and/or dual-fuel capability Remaining capacity relies on blend of FT and IT at 22,540 MW (31%) or IT only at 9,460 MW () Additionally, 21,000 MW of capacity report that FT is shared across multiple generators within portfolios Combination of various fuel strategies could provide sufficient fuel assurance at this time but increased gas usage may warrant further review Percentage of Combined Cycles Reporting Transport Type North/Central South Firm Transport Only 69% 16% Firm and Interruptible Combo 14% 84% Interruptible Transport Only 17% 0% Gas transportation requirements vary by sub region and markets Percentage of Total Gas fired Capacity Reporting 3% 31% 40% FT Only and/or Dual Fuel FT and IT Combination IT Only No Response to Survey Unknown Transport Type 9

10 Increased pipeline services were reported, providing flexibility to generators in need of enhanced operations No-Notice Service 30,850 MW (42%) of capacity subscribes to no-notice services (Firm and Interruptible) Non-Ratable 47,660 MW (66%) of capacity have nonratable flexibility or batching capability Storage 27,340 MW (37%) of capacity subscribe to storage (Firm and Interruptible) No Notice: Ability to come online in advance of purchase or outside nomination cycles Non Ratable: Hourly flow flexibility 5% 7% 14% 40% No-Notice as % of CM 42% 66% Yes No Unknown Non-Ratable as % of CM 50% No Response to Survey Yes No Storage as % of CM 37% Unknown No Response to Survey Yes No No Response to Survey 10

11 Summary and next steps MISO appreciates stakeholder participation and OMS support in the 3 rd winter generator fuel survey The survey advances MISO operations and improves situational awareness for the upcoming winter MISO will monitor the reliability of gas-fired generators this upcoming winter and in the future as usage grows 11

12 Contact Information Mark Thomas Phil Van Schaack 12

13 APPENDIX 13

14 Of capacity participating, the majority were currently satisfied with pipeline service offerings Does the pipeline(s) to which the unit is connected offer the services you believe are necessary to operate as desired (if subscribed to or not)? Pipeline Service Offering Satisfaction as Percentage of CM Yes, services offered meet generator needs 25% 47% Yes, however additional services could be developed No, however the strategy used is sufficient No, services do not meet generator needs Prefer Not to Answer 1% 0% 14% No Response to Survey 14

15 Gas-fired facilities with dual-fuel capability account for 16,730 MW, or 23%, of MISO natural gas capacity Of capacity responding to the survey, 40% or 6,410 MW have greater than 48 hours of backup fuel inventory on site (assuming max output) MISO South accounts for 91% backup fuel lasting longer than 48 hours MISO North/Central accounts for 90% of backup fuel lasting less than 48 hours 76% of responders reported #2 Heating Oil as secondary fuel 15