Draft Results Capital Cost and Performance of New Entrant Peaking Unit

Transcription

1 Draft Results Capital Cost and Performance of New Entrant Peaking Unit Presentation to Christopher D. Ungate, Senior Consultant 1

2 Scope of New Entrant Peaking Unit Assumptions Peaking Unit Technology: Unit with technology that results in the lowest fixed costs and the highest variable costs among all other units technology that are economically viable. Examined LM6000 and LMS100 in detail, and provided ballpark estimates for Frame 7 (7FA) for comparative purposes Configuration Greenfield vs. brownfield (switchyard, site prep, bldgs, tanks) Number of units Emissions controls (SCRs, CO catalyst) Inlet air cooling (evaporative coolers, chillers) Dual fuel capability (gas or gas and oil) Fuel gas compression (local supply pressure) Siting: five sites (zones C, F, G, J, K) Materials and labor costs Site-related costs (insurance, taxes, land) 2

3 Scope of Cost and Performance Estimates EPC Capital Cost Non-EPC Costs (Owner s Cost, Financing, Working Capital and Inventories) Capacity and Heat Rate as a function of season and location Variable O&M Fixed O&M Availability Startup Fuel 3

4 Recommended Technology and Configuration LMS100 Greenfield site conditions Two units SCR for Zones G, J, K; no SCR for Zones C, F Inlet Air Evaporative Cooling (no inlet air chillers) Natural Gas only (no dual fuel capability) Fuel Gas Compressors (200 psig local supply pressure) 4

5 Why the LMS100? The LMS100 has lower capital cost (on a $/kw basis) than the LM6000 And the LMS100 s lower operating cost (heat rate) give it an economic advantage as well Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) Capacity (MW) K - Long Island Overnight Capital Cost ($/kw) $s J - NYC Hudson Valley F - Capital C - Central LM6000 9, ,376 1,411 1, LMS100 9, ,089 1, Overnight Capital Costs include EPC costs, Owner s costs, Financing costs, Working Capital and Inventories. Financing Costs to be revised by NERA; currently based on 50/50 D/E 7%/12% 20 year term. 5

6 Why the LMS100? The 7FA simple cycle without an SCR is not economically viable in Zones H, J, and K: >678 hours of operation w/o SCR annually (8% CF) exceeds threshold for Lowest Achievable Emissions Rate (LAER), requiring an SCR NERA modeling shows over 2500 annual operating hours In Zones C and F, both the LMS100 and 7FA would have operating hours restrictions: NOx emissions w/o SCR (lbs/hr) Annual 100 tons limit Max CF 7FA 74 2,712 31% LMS ,975 23% 6

7 Why the LMS100? Preliminary results show that the LMS100 and 7FA, both without an SCR, have comparable annual net costs. LMS100 is best choice because of operating flexibility, lower cost to retrofit with an SCR, and lower total dollar cost to enter market. Zone F - Capital Zone C - Central LMS100 7FA LMS100 7FA Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 9,100 10,700 9,100 10,700 Capacity (MWs) Overnight Capital Cost ($/kw) Levelized Cost 13% levelized rate (real) Fixed O&M ($/kw-yr) Total Annual Cost ($/kw-yr) Annual Revenues target reserve margin Net Annual Cost 13% levelized rate (real) Net Annual Cost 15% levelized rate (real)

8 105,000 LMS100 Capacity and Heat Rate Curves LMS100: Net kw vs Ambient Temperature Average Degradation, 60% Relative Humidity Net Capacity, kw 100,000 95,000 90,000 Without Evaporative Cooling With Evaporative Cooling Evaporative cooling is limited to ambient temperature of 50 o F and above to avoid compressor icing. 85, ,000 Ambient Temperature, o F LMS100 Net Capacity vs Net Heat Rate Average Degradation Capacity and heat rate vary with environmental conditions (air temperature, humidity, and elevation) Seasonal estimates for capacity and heat rate is a reasonable representation of variation in performance Net Heat Rate, Btu/kWh (HHV) 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 59F Ambient 90F Ambient 25F Ambient 8,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90, ,000 Net Capacity, kw 8

9 Load Zone LMS100 Capacity and Heat Rate Table Weather Basis Elev. (Feet) Season Ambient Temp. o F Relative Humidity Net kw Net Btu/kWh (HHV) C - Central Syracuse 421 Summer ,278 9,140 Winter ,541 8,937 Spring-Fall ,203 9,028 ICAP ,806 9,252 F - Capital Albany 275 Summer ,518 9,147 Winter ,264 8,946 Spring-Fall ,926 9,036 ICAP ,370 9,251 G - Hudson Valley Poughkeepsie 165 Summer ,115 9,191 Winter ,148 8,957 Spring-Fall ,717 9,043 ICAP ,795 9,250 J - New York City New York City 20 Summer ,954 9,159 Winter ,221 8,993 Spring-Fall ,445 9,052 ICAP ,360 9,248 K - Long Island Long Island 16 Summer ,307 9,151 Winter ,222 8,993 Spring-Fall ,436 9,052 ICAP ,376 9,248 Notes 1. Includes Water Injection NOx Control (25 ppm) and Inlet Evaporative Cooling 2. Includes Average Degradation 3. Evaporative Cooler off below an ambient temperature of 50 o F and above to avoid compressor icing 9

10 LMS100 Other Performance Assumptions Load Zone Variable O&M ($/MWh) Fixed O&M ($/kw-yr) C - Central F - Capital G - Hudson Valley J - New York City K - Long Island Availability: 95% Startup Fuel (20 minute start): 135 MMBtu per unit 10