The Global Dimension of Change in River Basins

Transcription

1 The Global Dimension of Change in River Basins GWSP Conference, December Physical Heterogeneity and Socio-economic Differences as Determinants of Change in the Danube River Basin IWHW-BOKU

2 Structure of presentation What are the magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the basin? What drives transboundary cooperation in the field of water in the Danube basin? Which linkages can be identified?

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4 Some figures about the basin Countries: Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Republic of Yugoslavia, Montenegro, Bosnia- Hercegowina, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Germany Figures: Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Macedonia, Albania Length: 2857 km Area: km 2 Population: Mio.

5 Magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the basin? Political changes Severe economic changes Climate change

6 The last 20 years Collapse of Yugoslavia in a civil war ten thousands were killed, hundred thousands were expatriated New states have been established Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia- Hercegowina, Makedonia, Montenegro Politically unsettled problems (Kosovo, Transnistria) Political transition: CZ,SLW,HU,SLV,BLG,ROM are EU members CRO, MA, SE are accession states

7 Economic development Industrial Production* ( ) CSR -40 % Hungary -32 % Romania -54 % Bulgaria -54 % Economical Growth Rate* ( ) Country * 1995* Czech Rep Hungary Romania Bulgaria

8 Economic Status and Development GDP ( /capita/year) Austria Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Germany Hungary Moldova 350 Romania Serbia 950 Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine 3 700

9 Economic Status and Development Large gradient in GDP/capita from upstream to downstream Economic growth rate in some downtream countries is larger than upstream (UK, RO, BLG,..) The economy is very volatile

10 Water and environment Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor

11 Water and environment Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor Agriculturalal water demands are still quite high

12 Water and environment Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor Agriculturalal water demands are still quite high Substantial agricultural exports

13 Water and environment Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor Agriculturalal water demands are still quite high Substantial agricultural exports High nutrient loads (pesticides, ) from agriculture

14 Nutrient loads (N and P)

15 Environmental Problems and Pressures Water pollution in tributary basins (also in drinking water) Nutrient load and euthrophication Sensitive ecological areas are endangered The Black Sea is endangered (it accumulates all the pollutants) Morphological changes of the rivers

16 Aquatic Pollution:

17 Aquatic Pollution:

18 Human Intervention Numerous reservoirs for irrigation supply Water abstraction Channelisation of rivers Environmental degradation

19 Heavily Modified Water Bodies

20 Pressures on wetlands

21 What drives transboundary cooperation? Large gradient in economic development Major political changes in Central and Eastern Europe (after 1991) Transformation of legislation and administration in former Eastern countries Water pollution and environmental degradation International river (Navigation)

22 Mode of cooperation From bilateral agreements to basin wide agreements Establishment of ICPDR From a single objective approach to an integrated approach

23 Some of the International Agreements: Belgrad - Declaration (1948): Navigation Bukarest - Declaration (1985): Water Quality and Monitoring Preparation of the Danube Environmental Programme (1991) Strategic Action Plan (SAP) Convention for Sustainable Water Use (1993) Luzerne Declaration (1993) Economic Development Strategic Action Plan (1994) River Basin Management Plan (2009)

24 Principles and Strategies: Water and environment related actions should be based on the following principles: Precautionary Principle Best Available Technique Best Available Practice Control of the Pollution at the Source The Polluter Pays Principle Regional Co-operation Shared Information

25 Linkages and feedbacks between the water system and development

26 Impacts of political changes on agriculture and the water sector During socialistic economy some of the countries like Romania and Bulgaria had exported mostly agricultural products to Western countries. Downstream states changed the agricultural sector from large scale centrally managed agriculture to a decentralised small scale farming practice. Application of fertilisers and pesticides has been substantially reduced in the last twenty years. In Romania farmland in organic production has grown rapidly, more than tripling in the last five years. In Bulgaria agricultural production contributes 13,7 % of the GDP (2001) and remained until today an important economic sector.

27 Impacts of changes on society and ecosystems Migrants and their remittances contribute to the economic transformation and restructuring of several states in the Danube basin, particularly in Moldova, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro (OECD, 2009) Competition for available water is a serious problem in some regions of the Danube River basin. Large abstractions of water combined with the large seasonal variations in flow result in water supply shortages The main conflict is between agricultural water supply and other uses. In some countries, like Ukraine and Romania, the agricultural sector still requires more than 50 % of total water consumption. In Hungary and Moldova the share is above and around 30 % of total consumption. Deficit in available water for consumptive purposes and pressure on the ecological system is increasing. Compared with the 19th century, less than 19% of the former floodplain area (7,845 km² out of a once 41,605 km²) remained.

28 Impacts of climate change RCM data RCM models from ENSEMBLES 25x25km resolution Selection criteria good performance in PRUDENCE different driving GCM cover full project area RCM resolution 25x25 km Aladin (ARPEGE), by MeteoFrance PROMES (driving HADCM3Q), spanish RegCM (driving ECHAM5 r3) by ICTP 3 proposed RCMs 2nd SAB Budapest

29 Climate signal (rainfall and temperature) shows large differences for the control period Bias correction by quantile mapping

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31 Regional (Nested) GCMs Several nested models were developed in the past with a spatial resolution of a few hundred square kilometres CECILIA ENSEMBLES STARDEX PRUDENCE UBA-REMO CIRCE GLOWA CCHYDRO

32 Impacts of climate change T mean will increase C until 2050 and C until 2100 T increase is stronger in the South T increase is stronger in summer P: unclear picture P seems to decrease in spring and in summer in several regions Weak statements for extremes

33 Summary and Conclusions There is a clear upstrem downstream gradient The direct human impacts on the water cycle are strong (in both quantity and quality) The climate change signla exhibits lareg uncertainties with respect to rainfall Only the increase in temperature will have severe impacts on the water system, especially in downstream countries.

34 Summary and Conclusions: Danube is the most international river in the world Political and economic transition in several countries has substantial impacts on environment Some major transboundary problems exist - Euthrophication - Some major pollution sources - Impacts on the Delta and Black Sea Political transition stimulated basin wide cooperation From bilateral to a mulilateral and integrated approach

35 Thank you for your attention