Update to the Forage Action Team February 16 th 2017

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1 Drivers of forage population trends and consumption patterns: environmental, spatial and temporal patterns in Chesapeake Bay forage population distributions and predator consumption Update to the Forage Action Team February 16 th 2017 Ryan Woodland 1, Edward Houde 1, Andre Buchheister 2, Robert Latour 3, Carlos Lozano 1, Christopher Sweetman 3 1 Univ. Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, MD Humboldt State University, Arcata, CA Viginia Institute of Marine Science, Gloucester Point, VA 23062

2 Project goals Objective 1 Identify environmental gradients associated with spatial and temporal patterns in relative abundance of forage taxa in Chesapeake Bay Objective 2 Explain how spatial and temporal gradients in environmental variables control consumption of forage taxa, and quantify the effect of forage abundance on consumer populations

3 Spatial scales and areas of interest Baywide Regional 1. Mainstem 2. Tributaries: Patuxent River Potomac River Rappahannock River York River James River

4 Species/taxa of interest Forage

5 Species/taxa of interest Forage Consumers Multiple size-classes

6 Species/taxa of interest Forage Consumers Multiple size-classes Multiple surveys Chesapeake Bay Program Benthic Survey/WQ monitoring survey MD DNR/VIMS juvenile striped bass index seine surveys MD DNR/VIMS trawl surveys CHESFIMS/TIES midwater trawl survey ChesMMaP trawl survey

7 Project methods Forage Project Objective Indices Patch-scale Large-scale Time-series Environment Delta-GLM GAM/GAMM GLM/GLMM DFA Predators Consumption-Environment Evacuation model GLM DFA Diet-Environment Delta-GAMM Diet-density dependence GLM Models 1. GLM: generalized linear model 2. GAM: generalized additive model 3. Delta-GLM: delta-generalized linear model 4. Delta-GAM(M): delta-generalized additive (mixed) model 5. DFA: dynamic factor analysis

8 Forage-environment analysis GAMs: patch-scale patterns yy ii = ββ 0 + ββ 1 xx 1 + ββ 2 xx 2 + ss 1 (xx 1 ) + ss 1 (xx 1 ) ββ nn xx nn + ss nn (xx nn ) Taxonomic resolution Species (n=8), Genus/Family (n=5), Functional (n=5) Response variable ln(biomass per square meter[afdw]) Explanatory variables Class: region, year Continuous: dissolved oxygen, salinity, temperature, depth (CBP survey) Interactions (depth*do, depth*salinity, temperature*do) GLMs: large-scale patterns yy ii = ββ 0 + ββ 1 xx 1 + ββ 2 xx 2 ββ nn xx nn Response variable ln(biomass per square meter[afdw]) Explanatory variables (all continuous) Teleconnections/climate indices (NOAA) Susquehanna River flow (USGS) Cumulative 5 C water temperature degree (CBL/VIMS pier dataset) Ordinate DoY at which cumulative 5 C DD > 500 (CBP survey) Chlorophyll concentration (CBP WQ survey) Hypoxic volume (UMichigan)

9 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results Example: trumpet worm (Pectinaria gouldii) Sms.si.edu Linear term Estimate SE t-value p Day of year (d) Depth (m) <.0001 DO (mg/l) <.0001 Temperature (C) Salinity <.0001

10 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results Pectinaria gouldii (trumpet worm) Response surface: temperature & DO

11 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results Pectinaria gouldii (trumpet worm) Response surface: depth & salinity

12 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results Forage-environment analysis 1. Strong differences among invertebrate groups, even within genera (e.g., Macoma spp.)

13 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results Forage-environment analysis 1. Strong differences among invertebrate groups, even within genera (e.g., Macoma spp.) 2. At level of Functional group, significant linear effect of both Temperature and DO n.s. n.s. +

14 Functional groups (and Macoma): Modeled effect of DO at different Temperatures on biomass Macoma spp. Razor clams Mainstem Chesapeake Bay Amphipods & Isopods Other bivalves Mysids Polychaetes

15 GLMs: large-scale modeling results, Baywide model run Forage-environment analysis 1. Model performance evaluated using information criterion AICc 2. Variables most consistently occurring in best performing models: salinity, spring Chla, degree day phenology, large-scale climate patterns Average water quality Degree day variables Climate patterns Group Taxon Salinity Temp DO Chla Cumulative Timing Flow Hypoxia AMO NAO Species Leptocheirus plumulosus -0.58** 0.37* Macoma balthica Macoma mitchelli *** Neanthes succinea * Pectinaria gouldii 0.38* -0.47* Rangia cuneata 0.45* Taxonomic Anthuridae 0.49* Glyceridae -0.5* -0.61** Macoma Nereididae * Functional Amphipods & Isopods 0.6*** -0.47** Polychaetes * 0.58** Other bivalves P-values provided for information grey text: p = , black text, no asterisk: p = , *: p = , **: p = , ***: p < 0.001

16 Forage-environment preliminary results (invertebrates) Local densities major forage groups influenced by dissolved oxygen availability and temperature (some groups) Groups such as Macoma spp., razor clams and polychaetes show negative relationships with temperature A positive relationship with water column DO was observed in all functional groups Interannual patterns in density of several forage groups timing of water temperature warming spring phytoplankton production Large-scale climate patterns (positive NAO, negative AMO)

17 Project timeline (updated to include extension) Logistics and planning Objective 1 Data verification/validation Expanding forage indices Mr Ap Ma Jn Jl Au Se Oc No De Ja Fe Mr Ap Ma Jn Jl Au Objective 2 Project deliverables Forage abundance vs enviro. Predator consumption vs environment Density dependent foraging Variance dampening Presentations (Forage Act. Team/Fisheries GIT) Reports (quarterly) Scientific presentations (Tidewater x 2) Peer-review manuscript draft

18 Questions?

19 Abundance Indices Minimum Trawlable Number (Millions)

20 Abundance Indices Minimum Trawlable Number (Millions)

21 Population-level Consumption Striped Bass Summer Flounder Weakfish

22 Population-level Consumption Striped Bass Summer Flounder Weakfish

23 Predator-environment & -forage analysis Consumption indices have been updated to include most recent years in ChesMAPP survey Analysis of multivariate diet composition, diet-forage and consumption-environment underway assessing potential for spatial analysis within mainstem of Chesapeake Bay Atlantic Croaker Striped Bass Spot Summer Flounder White Perch Weakfish

24 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results Taxonomic group: Macoma spp. ChesapeakeBay.net Linear term Estimate SE t-value p Day of year (d) Depth (m) DO (mg/l) Temperature (C) Salinity <.0001

25 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results Functional group: Amphipod/Isopods Flickr.com/Gutlab Linear term Estimate SE t-value p Day of year (d) Depth (m) DO (mg/l) <.0001 Temperature (C) Salinity <.0001

26 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results

27 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results

28 GAMs: patch-scale modeling results

29 JanJuly5_DD Ord_Day_at_500_5DD Jan-July cumulative 5 C Deg Day Ordinate DoY at which cumulative 5 C DD > 500

30 DATA Forage Biomass (g m-2, AFDW) Biomass (g m-2, AFDW) Lower Bay: Amphipods & Isopods 1995 Lower Bay: other bivalves Biomass (g m-2, AFDW) 2015 Biomass (g m-2, AFDW) Lower Bay: polychaetes Lower Bay: Macoma spp

31

32 Observed air temperatures Monthly mean water temperature ( C) Solomons monitoring station SLIM2: Water Temp = 0.996*Air Temp R² = Monthly mean air temperature ( C) Solomons, MD, monthly water temperature ( C) Solomons, MD, monthly air temperature ( C) 30 Reconstructed air temperatures Month of time series from January December 2015 Estimated water temperatures Month of time series from January December 2015

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