2008 Annual Report on Lead Market
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1 2008 Annual Report on Lead Market With global lead ingot supply and demand balance converting the deficit in 2007 to a surplus in 2008, lead price retreated gradually in 2008 after rocketing greatly in Impacted by the worsening global financial crisis, which was triggered by the U.S subprime lending crisis, the global economy turned down. Amid the depressed condition, the already weak base metals plunged greatly in the fourth quarter of After touching USD3,470/t on LME early March,2008, the highest price since November 15, 2007, lead price began heading down gradually. The metal even hit USD850/t in mid December 2008, the lowest level since June The average lead ingot price is RMB17,040/t and the highest price is RMB23,200/t in late February against the lowest price of RMB8,100/t late November in China in 2008, down by almost 65%. The prospect of global economy is still unpromising, so the automotive market, which is closely related to lead market, will continue to face severe test in Review of Lead Market in Lead performs weak on LME in month lead appeared sluggish on LME during 2008, with the average price of 3-month lead at USD2,096/t, down by 19% compared with that in The average price in the first half of 2008 was USD2,699/t but that in the second half of 2008 declined to USD1,582/t. A snowstorm hit South China in January and February 2008, affecting the production and delivery of lead concentrate and lead ingot there. In addition, it is the bullish season for lead consumption in the winter, so the demand for lead kept strong in the first quarter. The supply concerns and declining lead inventory boosted up 3-month lead on LME in the first two months of The metal ever hit USD3,470/t early March, the highest level since Nov 11, However, pressed down by profit-taking, the drop of copper and zinc and softening demand, 3-month kept recoiling in the following months and fell below USD2,000/t in May. The market appeared relatively stable during April and September, with 3-month lead fluctuating narrowly around USD2,000/t on LME. Although the lead inventory on LME declined from 100,000t in the third quarter to 40,000t in the fourth quarter, the low stocks failed to stop the 3-month lead from dropping. With the U.S. financial crisis deepening, almost all commercial sectors are dampened, leading to the global economic recession. Some major automotive producers were struggling late
2 2008, so some of them announced to reduce or halt production to combat the financial crisis. US automaker Chrysler LLC said in December that it would halt its production for nearly a month from late December as demand falls due to the financial crisis. Another two major U.S. automotive producers Ford and General Motors announced to cut production. The ailing US automotive industry and panicky sentiment in the market sped up the dropping movement of lead price. In December, 3-month lead dropped through USD1,000/t and USD900/t and reached USD850/t in mid December, the lowest level since (Chart 1: Lead prices on LME in 2008) Unit:T 120, lead stocks on LME 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, (Chart 2: Lead stocks on LME in 2008)
3 1.2 Review of lead ingot market in China in 2008 The movement of lead ingot market in China is almost in line with that of 3-month lead on LME. Lead prices kept rising during January and February, up from RMB19,100/t early January to RMB13,200/t late February, the highest level in 2008, as consumers replenished lead ingot stocks before Spring Festival holiday and some smelters reduced or halted production on snow stocks, leading to the decline of lead ingot supply. However, with the slack season for lead acid battery consumption coming, the demand for lead ingot weakened, so the lead prices were recoiling during March and May and down to RMB17,000/t in May. In the face of sliding lead prices, some lead smelters announced in July to reduce production by 10% during July and September, but they failed to carry out the plan, so lead price experienced sharp increase and decline movement during the two months. Depressed by the U.S financial storm, metals softened greatly in September, but lead was relatively firm at about RMB17,600-18,000/t in Chinese spot market then. However, 3-month lead tumbled on LME in October, and the panic sentiment about the finical crisis spread fast in Chinese market, so many suppliers were panicked into underselling the metal. In the face of plummeting lead prices, most consumers only showed thin buying interest, so the market kept worsening. By November, lead ingot prices have been as low as about RMB8,000-8,100/t in Chinese spot market. Many lead smelters and lead acid battery producers suffered a great loss, so many of them reduced or halted production in the fourth quarter of As the metal was oversold and a rumor that China may cut export tax on refined lead was circulating among participants, smelters and traders began holding back from selling in December and the demand was recovering at the low price. With low availability of the metal, lead prices rebounded strongly from RMB8,100/t to RMB11,200/t in Chinese spot market in the first half of December, though 3-month lead on LME remained weak then. However, the sharp rebound of lead price dampened buyers demand, so the price retreated gradually in the second half of the month, down to RMB10,400/t late December. The average price of lead ingot is RMB17,040/t in Chinese spot market in 2008, down by 12.5% from RMB19,468/t in 2007.
4 (Chart 3: The price curve of lead ingot %min in Chinese spot market in 2008) The cost of lead concentrate accounts for about 70% of lead ingot price. The price of lead concentrate always follows the movement of lead ingot market. The average price of lead concentrate 60%min is RMB13,608/t in 2008, with the highest prices of RMB18,700-19,000/t during late February and early March and the lowest level of RMB5,100-5,300/t late November. At the low prices, most suppliers have no interest in selling lead concentrate, and many mines halted production. With the lead ingot prices bouncing up in December, the lead concentrate prices also climbed up to RMB6,500-7,00/t accordingly. (Chart 4: The price curve of lead concentrate 60%min in Chinese spot market in 2008) 2. The production and demand in lead market
5 2.1 Global lead market converts supply deficit into oversupply Lead prices kept rising during 2006 and 2007, stimulating the growth of lead ore and ingot production in the world. According the statistics published by International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global lead mine production increased by 7.6% year-on-year to 3,886,000t in The largest production increases are in Bolivia, Canada, China, India and the Russian Federation. The global refined lead metal output increased by 7.5% year-on-year to 8,725,000t in The increases are mainly in Australia, Canada, China, India, Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States. Although the demand for refined lead ingot declined in Europe, Japan and some Southeast Asian countries, the global demand for refined lead increased by 6.4% from 8,181,000t in 2007 to 8,706,000t in 2008, due to the slightly increase demand in the United States and strong growth in China. 000tons World Refined Lead Supply and Usage Sep Oct Nov Dec Mine Production Metal Production Metal Usage (Source: ILZSG) In 2008, the global refined lead market has converted supply deficit in past five years into oversupply. The supply deficits are almost 300,000t in 2004 and 61,000t in 2007, but there is a surplus of 19,000t in world refined lead market in 2008.
6 Unit:000t World Lead Production and Demand in Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mine Production Metal Production Metal Usage 2.2 The supply and demand in Chinese lead market The production of lead concentrate and refined lead continues to increase greatly in China in 2008 The output of both lead ore and refined lead in the first quarter is much lower than that in other three quarters, as some lead smelters and mines cut or stopped production on the snowstorm in South China during late January and early February and many small-sized mines and smelters halted production for Spring Festival holidays. The output increased in the second quarter but declined again in the third quarter. As the Olympics were held in Beijing during August and September and the detonators were forbidden in delivering then, mines are unable to keep operating normally. After the Olympics closed late September, some mines and smelters resumed production in succession, leading to the great increase of refined lead output in October. However, with the financial crisis deepening, lead prices tumbled from RMB18,000/t late September to RMB8,000/t late November, so lead smelters suffered a great loss. Many smelters had to cut production or close, resulting in the production decline in November and December.
7 unit:ton China Lead Mine and Metal Production in 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Metal Mine In China, the lead concentrate output is still unable to meet the demand from smelters and the secondary lead output is limited, so smelters have to import the lead concentrate from overseas market. With the fast expanding of lead smelters capacity, the demand for imported lead concentrate is increasing in China The demand for refined lead remains strong in China in 2008 Lead ingot is mainly consumed in lead acid battery, lead oxide, lead alloys and lead products. The principal consumption of lead is for lead-acid batteries that are used in vehicles, and in emergency systems as well as in industrial batteries found in computers and fork lift trucks. The lead consumption for lead acid battery accounts for about 75% of the total consumption of lead. About 60% of lead acid battery consumption for automotives. Therefore, the consumption of lead is very close with automotive output. According to statistics, in 2008, the production and sales volume of automotive are 9,345,100 and 9,380,500 in 2008 respectively, rising by 5.21% and 6.70% year-on-year, down from the annual increase rate of 16.81% and 15.14% in Almost 2/3 lead acid batteries are used to replace the old battery and about 1/3 are used in new vehicles, meaning that the great decline of automotive production growth in China will have little impact on the lead acid battery consumption in Meanwhile, the lead acid battery export kept well in According to the statistics published by China Customs, China exported million units of lead acid battery that are used in vehicles in the first eleven months of 2008, up by 33.2% compared with that in
8 the same period of The export of other industrial lead acid battery increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 125,347 units in the first eleven months of The lead import and export condition in China 2007 Since China imposed 10% export tax on refined lead ingot in July 2007, China s lead ingot export market has being shrinking fast. During 2006 and 2008, the refined lead export declined dramatically but the import kept relatively stable. The net export of refined lead was almost 500,000t in 2006, declined to 200,000t in 2007 and down further to 2,696t in Unit: ton China Refined Lead Import and Export Export Import According to the statistics published by China Customs, China exported 33,609t of refined lead in 2008, down by 85.78% compared with that in Most the refined lead were exported in the first half of 2008, with the total amount of 31,455t while the amount was only 2,153t in the second half of China even did not export any the metal in July. It is first time for China to become a net importer of lead ingot in the recent ten years. However, the numbers were also zero in the following August and November. The refined lead export declined by 86.84% year-on-year to 1,731t in December.
9 China Refined Lead Import and Export in Unit:ton Export Import The 10% export tax on refined lead and the high production cost in China make Chinese lead ingot producers give up exporting the metal. On the contrary, the refined lead and lead concentrate import markets were much active and the import increased greatly in the second half of The refined lead import increased by 23.41% year-on-year to 30,913t in There is still a supply deficit in Chinese lead concentrate market. With lead ingot prices slumping in the fourth quarter, many mines cut down or stopped production, tightening the supply of lead concentrate in China. Therefore, many lead smelters were active in importing lead concentrate from overseas market. The total amount of lead ore and concentrate import is 444,965t in 2008, up by 14.2% year-on-year. The United States, Peru and Australia are three major lead ore exporters to China in 2008, with the export of 261,884t, 220,130t and 129,292t respectively. The treatment charge of lead concentrate 50%min declined from USD /t CIF China early 2008 to USD80-90/t in December. 4.The outlook of lead market in 2009 There will be many uncertainties in It is still unclear when the economic crisis will hit the bottom and whether the stimulus plans will push up the growth of global economy. Impacted by kinds of favorable and unfavorable news, lead market will keep fluctuating in On the demand side, the lead market will remain weak in Depressed by the economic crisis, the automotive market has shown the weakness from late 2008 and some major producers struggled and announced to cut production in Therefore, the
10 lead acid battery consumption for new cars may decline in 2009, but demand from replacing old batteries will not decline, so the growth of lead ingot consumption may slow down in the world in There will be no great improvement seen in the global economy in 2009, so it is unlikely for lead price to bounce up greatly. It is anticipated that the average lead price will keep at about USD1,100-1,200/t on LME in The growth of global lead production will also slow down and the output is estimated at about 8.7 million tons in 2009, with an even close balance between supply and demand. The spreading financial crisis will continue to impact the economy in China. Although the annual increase rate of GDP increased by 9% in China in 2008, the increase rate declined from 10.6% in the first quarter to 10.1% in the second quarter, 9.0% in the third quarter and only 6.8% in the last quarter, indicating that the economic situation is also worsening in China. The spot lead market will also keep dull in China in 2009 and the average price of lead ingot is predicted to be RMB11,000/t. Influenced by the tight supply of raw materials and low lead price, the increase of lead production may speed down gradually in China in The stagnant automotive market will continue to dampen lead market. With high export tax on refined lead, the export market of lead ingot may remain quiet in 2009.
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