Factsheet. Photovoltaics a fiercely competitive market with major potential Price pressures despite growth dynamic.

Transcription

1 Factsheet Photovoltaics a fiercely competitive market with major potential Price pressures despite growth dynamic Juni 2011 auk/tm The photovoltaics market is becoming ever more dynamic around the world. In 2010 alone, solar power plants with a total output of 18 gigawatts were installed. That equates to the electricity requirements of 24 million Europeans or the whole of Sweden, Denmark, Finland, and Norway put together. In 2007, the total output of photovoltaic facilities installed that year was only 2.3 gigawatts. Market development will continue to speed up in the years to come. The forecast is for a total capacity of 32 gigawatts to be installed in 2015 alone. This would meet the electricity requirements of almost 44 million Europeans. Whereas in 2010 Germany represented almost half of the global market for solar energy, by 2015 it will only" be one tenth, with a sales quantity of around three to five gigawatts. This highlights how photovoltaics are gaining importance in ever more parts of the world. In the solar sector, quantities are expressed using the unit Watt peak (Wp). It is used to express the nominal capacity of solar cells and modules. Here an overview of expected developments in the various markets around the world. Robert Bosch GmbH Postfach D Stuttgart Andreas.Kempf@de.bosch.com Phone Fax Corporate Communications, Brand Management, and Sustainability Vice President: Uta-Micaela Dürig

2 Figure 1 Strong growth in Asia and the Americas, annual growth rates Strong growth is expected above all outside Europe. The United States and Canada are in the starting blocks. While the two countries together had just 1.2 gigawatts of installed photovoltaic capacity in 2010, this figure is expected to rise almost sixfold by The forecast is similar for the Asia-Pacific region: From two gigawatts in 2010, the capacity of newly-installed solar capacity across the region should rise to almost 13 gigawatts by All around the world, the area that is being focused on is the land that lies between the 35th parallel either side of the equator. This region, which is known as the sunbelt thanks to its high level of incident sunlight, is the ideal location for solar installations and has the highest opportunities for growth. According to a study by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, EPIA, photovoltaics will become this region s most important source of energy between 2020 and This region, which is home to 75 percent of the world s population, is currently beset by high electricity prices and also by poor energy supply. The countries of the region together make up just 40 percent of worldwide energy demand. But according to the EPIA, Seite 2 von 6

3 their share will double to 80 percent over the next 20 years. It is also to be noted that so far only nine percent of global photovoltaic capacity has been installed in this sunny area. Figure 2 Ideal locations for solar energy Companies wishing to make their mark in the photovoltaics market need to continue growing including internationally. They can only hope to gain lasting benefit from developments in attractive markets if they invest in production locally. What is more, Asia boasts considerably lower manufacturing costs. These cost advantages accrue in particular in workforce, electricity, and water. In choosing a photovoltaics manufacturing location in the Asia-Pacific region, important factors to bear in mind include energy security, infrastructure such as transportation routes, and of course the availability of qualified staff. Despite the notable dynamic in worldwide photovoltaics markets, competition continues to intensify. The largest manufacturers are based in Japan, China, Germany, and Taiwan. They make up more than three quarters of the market at present. Seite 3 von 6

4 Figure 3 Strong competition from China Figure 4 The largest manufacturers at a glance Seite 4 von 6

5 Prices for PV facilities are being kept down by strong competitive pressures but also by technical developments and the increase in series production. The pressure on margins is a particular problem for photovoltaics companies that limit themselves to producing solar modules and/or their primary products such as cells. Those companies that cover as much of the value chain as possible from producing ingots, through wafers, cells, and modules, to complete systems and services like Bosch Solar Energy have an advantage. This is evidence of the sector s likely consolidation into fullline suppliers. What is more, high-volume industrial production is playing an increasingly important role. Companies that overcome these challenges can profit from the ensuing unit cost reductions. Figure 5 Photovoltaics value added chain Companies can counter pressure on margins and costs only partially through consolidation and optimization of manufacturing processes. They must also invest in the development of new products so as to push the effectiveness of cells and modules even higher and so too reduce manufacturing costs per Watt peak even further. Expenditure on research and development exceeds the financial means of smaller companies by a wide margin. What is more, highly capitalized companies from other sectors, are increasingly muscling in on the photovoltaics market. The German solar sector has set itself some ambitious goals. They seek to guarantee competitive, cost-efficient, safe, and clean electricity production from sunlight by The sector wishes to become a significant pillar of the systemic changeover to a clean and independent electricity supply based on 100 percent renewable energy. Prices for systems Seite 5 von 6

6 will have to drop by more than 50 percent by 2020 for this to happen. By then, solar electricity in Germany will have become largely competitive and so will no longer require subsidies in a few relevant market segments. The first milestone will be met as soon as 2013 with what is known as grid parity: when electricity production costs are equal to household electricity prices. According to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, electricity production costs for small-scale photovoltaics facilities in Germany in 2010 were between 0.30 /kwh and 0.34 /kwh. These costs drop to 0.16 /kwh for freestanding photovoltaics facilities with southern European incident sunlight, depending on the technology implemented, the modules, and the size of the facility. In some regions, such as Spain, Italy, or the particularly sunny parts of the United States, cost parity should be reached as soon as In individual cases this goal has already been reached. Where are solar power plants in use? Last year, more than 40 percent of photovoltaics facilities manufactured worldwide were installed on commercial buildings. A further third were fitted to private buildings. A good 25 percent is used to operate solar power plants. Seite 6 von 6