The Greenhouse Effect. Greenhouse Gases. Greenhouse Gases. Greenhouse Gases

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Global Warming Helen Cox, PhD Geography Department California State

Greenhouse gases Other contributors Observed changes Temperature Other

California Mitigation Efforts Global State What you can do Greenhouse Gases

ch Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. http://www.ipcc.

Forcing, 2005 of Different 2005 G-G H Gases over next 100 years Policymakers,

1 Global Warming Helen Cox, PhD Geography Department California State University, Northridge The Greenhouse Effect Science of global warming Greenhouse gases Other contributors Observed changes Temperature Other indicators The future Emissions Global consequences Consequences for California Mitigation Efforts Global State What you can do Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gases Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. Greenhouse Gases Components of Radiative Relative Warming Forcing, Effect Forcing, 2005 of Different 2005 G-G H Gases over next 100 years Policymakers, Cambridge University Press. Policymakers, Cambridge University Press (in press, 2007). 1

Changes in Solar Irradiance Sulphur aerosols cool climate directly and indirectly Lean, 2003 Estimated

, GISS, NASA Hadley Source: Centre Sato for et Climate al, GISS, Prediction NASAand Research Clouds

greatest uncertainty in future projections of climate arises from clouds and their interactions with

2 Changes in Solar Irradiance Sulphur aerosols cool climate directly and indirectly Lean, 2003 Estimated burden of sulphate aerosol, in 1990s Cooling Effect of Volcanic Aerosols Sato et al., GISS, NASA Hadley Source: Centre Sato for et Climate al, GISS, Prediction NASAand Research Clouds Contrails Across the Southeastern U.S. on January 29, 2004 As has been the case since the first IPCC Assessment Report in 1990, probably the greatest uncertainty in future projections of climate arises from clouds and their interactions with radiation. From: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2001: Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, Cambridge University Press (2001) Climate change and the greenhouse effect 2005, Met Office, Exeter, UK. University of Nebraska-Lincoln High Plains Regional Climate Center 2

Observed Global Warming Observed warming Trenberth et al.

1979 to 2005 estimated at the surface, and for the troposphere from the surface to about 10 km altitude,

, 2007 Evidence for global warming? Evidence for global warming? The extent of the ice cover on Mt.

3 Observed Global Warming Observed warming Trenberth et al., 2007 Observed Global Warming Observed Global Warming Patterns of linear global temperature trends from 1979 to 2005 estimated at the surface, and for the troposphere from the surface to about 10 km altitude, from satellite records. Grey areas indicate incomplete data. Trenberth et al., 2007 Evidence for global warming? Evidence for global warming? The extent of the ice cover on Mt. Kilimanjaro decreased by 81% between 1912 and Schneider, Stephen, Overview of Dangerous Climate Change, Scientific Symposium on Stabilization of Greenhouse Gases, U.K. Met. Office, Feb

Retreat of glaciers Evidence for global warming?

adrift in the Weddell Sea in 2002. 720 billion tons of ice!

Decrease in Arctic Sea-Ice Observed Changes in Sea Level, Temperature

Snow Cover Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI

4 Retreat of glaciers Evidence for global warming? The Larsen B ice shelf disintegrates, setting thousands of ice bergs adrift in the Weddell Sea in billion tons of ice! Oerlemans, Decrease in Arctic Sea-Ice Observed Changes in Sea Level, Temperature and N.H. Snow Cover Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), WGI Fourth Assessment Report 2007: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). Change in volcanic aerosol 5 The future Estimated cooling effect, Wm 2 0 Source: Sato et al, GISS, NASA 4

Global Averages of Surface Warming (relative to 1980-99) Predicted Climate Changes

http://www.ipcc.ch Low range: 3.0 o F 5.4 o F Medium range: 5.5 o F 7.

, 2006:CEC-500-2005-186-SF Projected Changes in Temperature Arctic summer sea-ice

University press, 2007). http://www.ipcc.

5 Global Averages of Surface Warming (relative to ) Predicted Climate Changes in California: Temperature Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). Low range: 3.0 o F 5.4 o F Medium range: 5.5 o F 7.8 o F High range: 8.0 o F 10.4 o F Greater warming in summer than winter Cayan et al., 2006:CEC SF Projected Changes in Temperature Arctic summer sea-ice could disappear by 2080s under IPCC High Emissions scenario Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). Projected Changes in Precipitation (for relative to ) Solutions? Policymakers, Cambridge University press, 2007). 5

Required reductions in CO 2 concentrations Mitigation Efforts: Kyoto Protocol

ch The Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to reduce emissions of six

The protocol sets mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for each of

Emissions by Gas 20.00 tonnes carbon dioxide 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.

6 Required reductions in CO 2 concentrations Mitigation Efforts: Kyoto Protocol Website: The Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to reduce emissions of six greenhouse gases, came into effect on February 16, The protocol sets mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for each of the party nations with the goal of reducing total global emissions to 5.2% below their 1990 values by countries have now ratified the agreement but not the U.S. World Resources Institute, Per Capita Emissions World Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions U.S. Emissions by Gas tonnes carbon dioxide U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions broken down by gas type Data source: Source: 6

U.S. Emissions by Use Energy Sources for U.S. Energy sources for U.S. in 2005 U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 2005 broken down by sector Source: http://epa.

html Mitigation Efforts: California AB32 Mitigation Efforts: California California is the 12 th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world On June 1 st, 2005 Governor Schwarzenegger signed

On September 27, 2006 Governor Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 32, California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, authored by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles).

Beginning in 2008 the California Air Resources Board will require industry to report on their G-H gas emissions. Reductions will be continued to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.

On Jan 18, 2007, a new Low Carbon Fuel Standard was introduced for transportation fuels.

Transportation accounts for 40% of California s GHG emissions, and 96% of these fuels are petroleum based. What you can do Support and encourage local alternative energy projects.

7 U.S. Emissions by Use Energy Sources for U.S. Energy sources for U.S. in 2005 U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions broken down by sector Source: Data source: Mitigation Efforts: California AB32 Mitigation Efforts: California California is the 12 th largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world On June 1 st, 2005 Governor Schwarzenegger signed Executive Order S-3-05, establishing Greenhouse gas targets for the State. On September 27, 2006 Governor Schwarzenegger signed Assembly Bill 32, California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, authored by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles). AB 32 requires that the statewide greenhouse gas emissions be cut to their 1990 levels by This will require a cut in emissions from the State s largest emitters by about 25%. Beginning in 2008 the California Air Resources Board will require industry to report on their G-H gas emissions. Reductions will be continued to 80% below 1990 levels by In July, 2006 an agreement was signed between California and the United Kingdom to create an international partnership to fight against global warming. On Jan 18, 2007, a new Low Carbon Fuel Standard was introduced for transportation fuels. This requires fuel providers to reduce the carbon content of passenger vehicle fuels sold in California by 10% by the year Transportation accounts for 40% of California s GHG emissions, and 96% of these fuels are petroleum based. What you can do Support and encourage local alternative energy projects. In 2005 CSUN installed a 1 megawatt fuel cell power plant the single largest fuel cell power plant at any university in the world. The power plant provides environmentally friendly power to the campus, and reduces the university s CO2 emissions by 60 million pounds during its lifetime. The plant will generate electricity for the university s facilities and surplus heat for buildings, showers and food service hot water, and for heating the swimming pool. What you can do Support and encourage local alternative energy projects. CSUN, with support of LADWP and the Gas Company has installed nearly 6,000 solar panels totaling nearly 700,000 watts of power on the campus as a way of providing power while saving energy and reducing costs. In 2001, CSUN installed six microturbines through a partnership with the South Coast Air Quality District and LADWP as a way to save energy and reduce its reliance on the state s fragile electrical grid. 7

8 What you can do: Personal options What you can do: Personal options Plant trees Install solar panels Switch to energy saving appliances Recycle Drive a fuel efficient vehicle Use mass transit, cycle, carpool Buy green energy Turn off the air conditioner Turn off the lights when you leave a room Install compact fluorescent light bulbs Don t fly unless you have to Buy locally grown produce Put your water heater on a timer Use recycled paper and timber 1. Your car. Avg. American drives 15,600 miles per year 4% reduction = driving about 12 fewer miles per week Another 4% by getting 1 2 more mpg: minimize high-speed driving (fuel economy drops 17% between 55 and 70 miles per hour); idle for no more than 30 seconds keep tires properly inflated. 2. Your lights Lighting accounts for 5-10 % of the average household's energy budget. Replace incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent lights (CFLs), which use 25% - 33% of the energy to provide the same amount of light. CFLs also last up to 10 times longer. 3. Heating and appliances. Lowering your water heater s thermostat by 10 (or to 120 F) or your heating thermostat by 2 can both reduce your energy use 3 5%. Buy appliances or equipment with Energy Star-rated models 4. Waste less. Unplug a freezer. One of the quickest ways to reduce your global warming impact is to unplug the extra refrigerator or freezer you rarely use -- except when you need it for holidays and parties. This can reduce the typical family's CO2 gas emissions nearly 10%. 5. Power choice Buy green power (electricity generated from renewable resources such as the sun and wind) 8

6. Microwave. Avg mpg of car today = 24 mpg We have the technology to raise this to 40 mpg today.

During the summer, they won t heat up your kitchen and make you turn up the A/C. 7. Wash your clothes in cold water instead of hot.

Cost of Renewable Energy Sources What you can do: Websites If you visit only one site, visit this one from the Union of Concerned Scientists: http://www.ucsusa.

9 6. Microwave. Avg mpg of car today = 24 mpg We have the technology to raise this to 40 mpg today. Each gallon of gas releases lbs CO 2 How did we ever live without them? Great for many cooking and use 67% less energy than an electric oven. During the summer, they won t heat up your kitchen and make you turn up the A/C. 7. Wash your clothes in cold water instead of hot. If you use the right detergent, your clothes will be just as clean and you will cut your energy use in half. Cost of Renewable Energy Sources What you can do: Websites If you visit only one site, visit this one from the Union of Concerned Scientists: Facts and figures from the EPA: What you can do (Inconvenient Truth): The scientific facts from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): 9

Global Warming. Science of global warming Greenhouse gases Other contributors Observed changes. The future

Global Warming. Science of global warming Greenhouse gases Other contributors Observed changes. The future Global Warming Science of global warming Greenhouse gases Other contributors Observed changes The future Helen Cox, PhD Geography Department California State University, Northridge Temperature Other indicators