ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Transcription

1 R. Perez & T. Hoff.

2 End-use-specific Solar UNIVERSAL SOLAR Courtesy NREL-PIX ELECTRICITY GENERATION Courtesy Ron Kamen, Earth Kind Energy Richard Perez

3 End-use-specific Solar UNIVERSAL SOLAR Photovoltaics PV R. Perez & T. Hoff.

4 Solar Thermal PV R. Perez & T. Hoff.

5 NOT ENOUGH SPACE, NOT ENOUGH SUN, Each square meter in New York can generate 200 kwh of photovoltaic electricity per year Richard Perez Photograph courtesy of AltPower, Inc.

6 120 billion kwh / year More than twice New York s Consumption Richard Perez

7 Richard Perez

8 Only 0.75% of New York s area* would be needed to produce all the electricity used in the State *using 10% PV conversion Buildings, parking lots and roadways cover almost 3% of New York s area Richard Perez

9 Richard Perez, et al.

10 9 MW 10 kw Richard Perez, et al. R. Perez & T. Hoff.

11 Richard Perez

12 Richard Perez All US electrical energy 25,000 km 2 PV 0.32% US Land Area

13 7% US electricity Hydropower artificial lakes > 100,000 km 2 Richard Perez

14 WORLD TOTAL ENERGY USE 2009: 16 TWy 2050: 28 TWy R. Perez & T. Hoff.

15 renewable finite SOLAR 10 23,000 per year per year 3-11 per year OTEC 1,4 WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, Natural Gas 1,8 215 total 240 total 2009 World energy use 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Petroleum 1,8 2050: 28 TW TIDES per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 1, per year Geothermal 1, Total Uranium 1,9 R. Perez et al. R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

16 R. Perez et al. SOLAR 10 23,000 per year Natural Gas 1,8 215 total 240 total Petroleum 1, Total Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

17 Richard Perez NOT ENOUGH SPACE, NOT ENOUGH SUN, TOO EXPENSIVE

18 COST = $50 Trillion NOT ENOUGH SPACE, NOT ENOUGH SUN, TOO EXPENSIVE 2050 COMPLETE OVERNIGHT 100% SWITCH TO SOLAR & RENEWABLES: CURRENT DEBT ORIGINATED UN THE US, EUROPE & JAPAN (2008) $58 Trillion Richard Perez

19 ENOUGH SPACE, ENOUGH SUN, TOO EXPENSIVE VALUE Ralph Izzo, Chairman, PSEG: We ve got to stop pretending solar power will lower the cost of energy. It s going to increase the cost and people have got to understand why it is worth more Richard Perez Wall Street Journal 7/31/09

20 PV OWNER UTILITY CONSTITUENTS EQUIPMENT COST BENEFIT BENEFIT INCENTIVES BENEFIT COST UTILITY BILLS BENEFIT COST TAX EFFECTS BENEFIT COST R. Perez & T. Hoff.

21 Solar-coincident value value Energy: Energy: PV OWNER 66 /kwh /kwh UTILITY CONSTITUENTS Capacity: Capacity: 33 /kwh /kwh EQUIPMENT COST BENEFIT BENEFIT INCENTIVES BENEFIT COST UTILITY BILLS BENEFIT COST TAX EFFECTS BENEFIT COST TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy Capacity DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity LOSS SAVINGS Mean Mean GRID SECURITY hour hour value value Energy: Energy: ENVIRONMENTAL 55 /kwh /kwh COMPLIANCE Capacity: Capacity: FUEL PRICE 00 /kwh /kwh RISK for for MITIGATION solar solar ECONOMIC GROWTH Energy: Energy: /kwh /kwh Capacity: Capacity: 55 /kwh /kwh R. Perez & T. Hoff.

22 Heat wave Richard Perez, et al. A/C electrical demand peak

23 Summer 2006 peak demand day New York City Load (MW) Richard Perez, et al. NYC LOAD NYC LOAD with 1000 MW PV R. Perez & T. Hoff.

24 PV OWNER UTILITY CONSTITUENTS EQUIPMENT COST BENEFIT BENEFIT INCENTIVES BENEFIT COST UTILITY BILLS BENEFIT COST TAX EFFECTS BENEFIT COST TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy Capacity DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity LOSS SAVINGS GRID SECURITY 15 /kwh utility ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC GROWTH R. Perez & T. Hoff.

25 Distribution System Customer Customer transmission Customer Transformer Customer Substation Customer TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy 15 /kwh Capacity utility DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity Loss savings GRID SECURITY ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC GROWTH R. Perez & T. Hoff.

26 ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours Richard Perez et al.

27 PV IMPACT AT 10% CAPCITY PENETRATION NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration Displacing highest stress 8760 hours Richard Perez et al.

28 Distribution System Customer Customer transmission Customer Transformer Customer Substation Customer TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy Capacity DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity Loss savings GRID SECURITY 15 /kwh utility 1-6 /kwh utility ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC GROWTH R. Perez & T. Hoff.

29 US-Wide cost of outages: $ billion per year* TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy Capacity DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity Loss savings GRID SECURITY 15 /kwh utility 1-6 /kwh utility ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC GROWTH *Gellings, C. W., and K. Yeager, (2004): Transforming the electric infrastructure. Physics Today, Dec R. Perez & T. Hoff.

30 Toronto Detroit Boston Cleveland NYC Richard Perez, et al.

31 Sub-Island with enough generation to meet demand Sub-Islands with insufficient generation to meet demand Boston Toronto Detroit NYC Cleveland Northeast Electrical Island Boundary Richard Perez, et al.

32 NYC $1 Billion (Reuters) $1.1 Billion (The Guardian) US-Can $6.8 - $10.3 B (ICF Consulting) Perez et al., ASRC

33 Perez et al., ASRC

34 17:00 GMT 18:00 GMT As little as 500 MW of PV dispersed around the major northeastern cities would have prevented the blackout An investment of $ 3 billion Outage cost $ 8 billion 19:00 GMT 20:00 GMT Richard Perez, et al.

35 US-Wide cost of outages: $ billion per year* 20% mitigated by PV TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy Capacity DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity Loss savings GRID SECURITY 15 /kwh utility 1-6 /kwh utility 3-7 /kwh ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC GROWTH Constituent *Gellings, C. W., and K. Yeager, (2004): Transforming the electric infrastructure. Physics Today, Dec R. Perez & T. Hoff.

36 Global Warming TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy Capacity DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity Loss savings GRID SECURITY 15 /kwh 1-6 /kwh 3-7 /kwh ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC * Based upon current NYS GROWTH generation mix ** based upon 2010 PV industry size utility utility Preventing Global warming 1.5% GDP Fixing Global Warming 25% GDP PV = 10% of solution 250 cents per kwh** Constituent 2 cents per kwh $40/metric ton CO2* R. Perez & T. Hoff.

37 TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy Capacity DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity Loss savings GRID SECURITY 15 /kwh utility 1-6 /kwh utility 3-7 /kwh ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC GROWTH Hedging $500/bbl oil in 2040: NPV = 25 cents per kwh est. Constituent /kwh /kwh Constituent Constituent/utility R. Perez & T. Hoff.

38 Each MW of PV maintained employs.3 people. TRANSMISSION LEVEL Each MW of PV maintained employs.3 people. Energy 15 /kwh Capacity utility DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity Loss savings GRID SECURITY 1-6 /kwh 3-7 /kwh ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC GROWTH Each megawatt (MW) of photovoltaic (PV) panels Each manufactured megawatt (MW) in the of US photovoltaic employs 14 (PV) people. panels manufactured in the US employs 14 people. Each MW of PV installed on homes in the US Each employs MW of 14.3 PV people. installed on homes in the US employs 14.3 people. Each MW of PV installed on commercial Each buildings MW of employs PV installed 9 people. on commercial buildings employs 9 people. utility Constituent /kwh /kwh 2-3+ /kwh Constituent Constituent/utility Constituent R. Perez & T. Hoff.

39 PV VALUE: s /kwh PV COST W/O INCENTIVES TODAY: /kwh TRANSMISSION LEVEL Energy Capacity DISTRIBUTION LEVEL Capacity Loss savings GRID SECURITY 15 /kwh utility 2-6 /kwh utility 3-7 /kwh ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLIANCE FUEL PRICE RISK MITIGATION ECONOMIC GROWTH Constituent /kwh /kwh 2-3+ /kwh Constituent Constituent/utility Constituent R. Perez & T. Hoff.

40 PV VALUE: s /kwh PV COST W/O INCENTIVES TODAY: /kwh JUSTIFY INCENTIVES from ratepayers & taxpayers VALUE cost without incentives cost with incentives Apparent VALUE R. Perez & T. Hoff.

41 ratepayers taxpayers PV OWNER UTILITY CONSTITUENTS EQUIPMENT COST BENEFIT BENEFIT INCENTIVES BENEFIT COST UTILITY BILLS BENEFIT COST TAX EFFECTS BENEFIT COST Ratepayers = Taxpayer = You and me R. Perez & T. Hoff.

42 High penetration cost JUSTIFY INCENTIVES from ratepayers & taxpayers VALUE cost without incentives cost with incentives Apparent VALUE R. Perez & T. Hoff.

43 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

44 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

45 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

46 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold R. Perez & T. Hoff.

47 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold 10% Solar Penetration cost: 1.5 cent per kwh R. Perez & T. Hoff.

48 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold 20% Solar Penetration cost: 3.5 cents per kwh R. Perez & T. Hoff.

49 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold 30% Solar Penetration cost: 7 cents per kwh R. Perez & T. Hoff.

50 Solar Generation Firm capacity storage requirement Variable generation Excess PV storage requirement Base Load firm PV capacity threshlold 50% Solar Penetration cost: 19 cents per kwh R. Perez & T. Hoff.

51 Richard Perez

52 Richard Perez

53 SOLAR 10 23,000 per year per year 3-11 per year OTEC 1,4 WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, Natural Gas 1,8 215 total 240 total 2009 World energy use 16 TWy per year 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Petroleum 1,8 ANWR 2050: 28 TW TIDES per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 1, per year Geothermal 1, Total Uranium 1,9 R. Perez et al. R. Perez et al. 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

54 solar WIND Coal Natural Gas Biomass Uranium Richard Perez Petroleum