Regasification N. Atlantic

Transcription

1 North Atlantic Basin LNG Week in Review 1 The report is for the week ending December 13. Table 1 to the right tracks 2013 LNG consumption in the Atlantic Basin through December 13 versus the same time frames of the previous two years. The data for North America do not include the import terminals at Altamira and Manzanillo, Mexico (not tracked on a daily basis by NATS, but are included in the monthly Asia Update and LNG World Balance Report). The total consumption of LNG within western Europe and North America for the week ending December 13 was 25.5 bcf, or about an average of 3.6 bcf per day very nearly the same as sendout during the previous week. The total gas sent out during the comparable week last year was 43.8 bcf or about 6.3 bcf per day on average. Detailed data on a daily basis is available on line at for any of the gas sendout data discussed here. In the UK, consumption of LNG for the week ending December 13 was an average of 526 million cubic feet per day, versus 563 million cubic feet per day during the week ending December 6. The pace of LNG sendout and imports appears to be dropping substantially in December with no ships shown yet as scheduled to arrive at South Hook. The Isle of Grain terminal has been sending out gas only into the local pipeline grid at a steady rate of around 104 mmcf per day, while the Dragon terminal has been sending out no gas since May. The sendout from Spain s 6 LNG terminals was at an average of 1,532 million cubic feet per day during the week, versus 1,510 the previous week. The average in Spain for November was 989 mmcf per day. (Chart 4) In France, the gas sent out from the two LNG import terminals at Fos averaged 462 million cubic feet per day during the week ending December 13 compared to 508 during the previous week. The import terminal at Montoir averaged 166 mmcf per day during last week, versus 180 the week ending December 6. In Italy the Adriatic LNG terminal s daily sendout averaged 301 mmcf per day during the week ending December 13 versus an average of 334 million cubic feet per day during the previous week. The Sines LNG terminal in Portugal averaged 86 million cubic feet per day during the week ending December 13 compared to 109 during the previous week. It appears that western Europe continues to receive few LNG cargoes in December due to what is a very tight market in NE Asia. After a more or less steady rise in spot prices for LNG in the NE Asian markets since May, the RIM spot market assessment has eased off since the beginning of December (Chart 6b), possibly suggesting an easier market is developing. Table 1 Regasification N. Atlantic millions of cubic feet of gas year to date totals: 13-Dec Dec Dec-11 Spain 381, , ,880 Portugal 55,685 64,348 86,195 France 244, , ,827 Belgium corrected 48,214 72, ,478 Netherlands 20,751 22,068 9,690 Italy 164, , ,745 UK 330, , ,406 N. America 116, , ,974 Totals 1,360,516 1,973,247 2,658,194 1 Note change of US coverage. Because of the very low rate of utilization of most import terminals in the US (at or near boil-off rates), NATS has reduced daily coverage to three LNG terminals: Canaport, Everett and Elba Island. This report does not cover the LNG import terminals in Mexico Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Weekly Summary Report page 1 for the week ending December 13, 2013

2 Natural Gas Prices In the UK, within day prices remain comparatively high. The NBP System Average Price was pence per therm ($11.33) on Friday versus p/th ($11.37) the previous Friday. (The US dollar weakened during the week.) The average of SAP prices during the week was p/th versus p/th the previous week. The ICE futures contract for gas delivered to the National Balancing Point in January settled on December 13 at p/th ($11.47) versus p/th ($11.72) the previous Friday. In the US, the next day, cash price for natural gas at the Henry Hub settled at $ per million Btus in trading on December 13 versus $ on December 6. The January 2014 NYMEX contract settled on December 13 at $4.351 per million Btus, up from $4.114 on December 6 and $3.954 on November 29. The January 2013 contract finally settled last year at $ The NATS Indices published during the week ending December 13 are shown in Chart 5 attached. RIM Six Month Strip LNG Future Assessment (US Dollars per million Btus) (LNG delivered: cost, insurance and freight basis, to NE Asia) Date RIM 6 month spot strip Months for RIM strip December 9 $16.33 March - August December 10 $16.31 March - August December 11 $16.20 March - August December 12 $16.18 March - August December 13 $16.16 March - August data courtesy of RIM Intelligence (For more detail on LNG sendout flows and price assessments, see ) 2013 Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Weekly Summary Report page 2 for the week ending December 13, 2013

3 List of Charts Chart # Chart Title 1a Atlantic Basin LNG - 4 th Quarter b Atlantic Basin LNG - 3 rd Quarter c Atlantic Basin LNG - 4 th Quarter a 2b Sendout from Six US LNG Terminals (see note on page one for coverage of terminals) Northeast LNG Market (Canaport, Everett, Northeast Gateway, Neptune) 3 Isle of Grain, South Hook, Bacton Interconnector, Langeled and Bacton BBL Gas Imports (Exports) into the United Kingdom 4 Spanish LNG Terminals Sendout NATS Daily LNG Futures Price Indices (from daily charts series) (US and UK benchmarks) 6 Henry Hub (US) vs National Balancing Point (UK) - cash prices 6b Henry Hub (US) vs National Balancing Point (UK) - cash prices (insert chart to see recent differences more clearly) 7 Front (Prompt) Month Contract Comparisons: Henry Hub vs NBP (Chart 7b shows more recent detail.) 8a 8b 9a 9b Forward Price Curve for Natural Gas at Henry Hub and at National Balancing Point - NYMEX and ICE Price Settlements for Futures Prices Contracts, end of week Table: NYMEX Futures Premium over UK Futures for Natural Gas. Gross Calorific Value of Gas Sent Out (selected terminals) Wobbe Indices of Gas Sent Out (selected terminals) 10 Monthly European LNG Imports Special Chart A follows this page and precedes the charts listed above. The chart shows month by month consumption (sendout) of LNG in Spain from January 2008 through an estimate for December was the year of peak consumption of LNG in Spain Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Weekly Summary Report page 3 for the week ending December 13, 2013

4 Spanish LNG Consumption - Monthly Comparisons by Year Special Chart A estimated Total, Annual Co nsumption of LNG in millions of cubic feet of natural gas , , , , , ,054 estimated millions of cubic feet Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec months in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Special Charts as of December 16, 2013

5 North Atlantic Basin LNG - 4th Quarter 2013 Chart 1a millions of cubic feet of natural gas per day 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Italy (2 terminals) GATE (Rotterdam) Belgium (Zeebrugge) France (3 terminals) UK (3 terminals) US Market (11 terminals) Portugal (Sines) Spain (6 terminals) 1,000 0 For detailed numbers, see Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Weekly Summary Report for the week ending December 13, 2013

6 North Atlantic Basin LNG - 3rd Quarter 2013 Chart 1b millions of cubic feet of natural gas per day 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Italy (2 terminals) GATE (Rotterdam) Belgium (Zeebrugge) France (3 terminals) UK (3 terminals) US Market (11 terminals) Portugal (Sines) Spain (6 terminals) 1,000 0 For detailed numbers, see Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Weekly Summary Report for the quarter ending September 30, 2013

7 North Atlantic LNG - 4th Quarter 2012 Chart 1c millions of cubic feet of natural gas 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Italy (2 terminals) Rotterdam (GATE) Belgium (Zeebrugge) France (3 terminals) UK (3 terminals) US Market (11 terminals) Portugal (Sines) Spain (6 terminals) 1,000 0 For detailed numbers, see Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Weekly Summary Report quarter ending December 31, 2012

8 400 Sendout from Six US LNG Import Terminals plus Imports from ECA (see chart 2b for Northeast LNG Market) Chart 2a 300 Cove Point Elba Island Trunkline Cameron Sabine Pass millions of cubic feet 200 Energia Coasta Azul Golden Pass Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc NATS Weekly Summary Report week ending December 13, 2013

9 Northeast Market LNG Sendout Everett, Canaport, plus Northeast Gateway and Neptune Deepwater Ports Everett Canaport NE Gateway Neptune Chart 2b million cubic feet natural gas

10 UK Natural Gas Imports (Exports) Isle of Grain LNG, Bacton-Zeebrugge Interconnector, Langeled and Balgzand-Bacton (BBL) Chart 3 5,000 4,000 3,000 Import Capacities Name mln ft³/d Name mln ft³/d BBL 1,500 Grain 1,363 Langeled 2,472 S Hook 1,000 In terconn ector Gas Po rt (Tees ) import 2,613 max 690 export 2,048 normal 500 IMPORTS Millions of cubic feet 2,000 1, ,000 EXPORTS 2,000 3,000 UK LNG Interconnector Langeled Pipeline BBL Net Imports for the week: 27.1 bcf versus 31.9 bcf the previous week

11 3,500 Spanish LNG Terminals Sendout Six Terminals: Barcelona, Huelva, Cartagena, Bilbao-BBG, Sagunto, Mugardos Chart 4 3,000 2,500 million cubic feet 2,000 1,500 1,

12 NATS Daily LNG Futures Price Indices Chart 5 NATS US EXPORTED LNG Futures Index Price for the Years: Trade date Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade 7-Dec no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade Note: Index Price Based on NYMEX Henry Hub futures 12 month strip, adjusted according to the Sabine Pass Train 1 contract pricing formula, price FOB US Gulf of Mexico NATS LNG Futures Price for LNG Based on Indexation to Brent Crude Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade 7-Dec no trade no trade no trade no trade no trade Note: Index Price Based on Brent Crude Futures price with LNG assumed to be 12% of Brent Price for LNG delivered to Europe, higher prices in NE Asia. All Prices in US Dollars per million Btus Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Daily Indices Report 12/13/2013

13 Henry Hub (US) vs National Balancing Point (UK) Cash Prices - For more detail see Chart 6b, data from June 1, 2012 Henry Hub NBP System Average Price German Border Price average for the month RIM Spot LNG Index Chart 6a $/MMBTUS

14 Henry Hub Cash Prices, National Balancing Point System Average Price (SAP), Amsterdam Power Exchange, German gas import price (monthly average), RIM Spot LNG Index, Russian Gas Price at the German Border Chart 6b USD per million Btus Henry Hub National Balancing Point (SAP) Amsterdam TTF Day Ahead German border price RIM Spot LNG Index Russian Gas in Germany

15 Front (Prompt) Month Contract Comparisons Henry Hub vs National Balancing Point Chart 7a US$ per million Btus NYMEX front month NBP Front Month Daily Settlements

16 Front (Prompt) Month Contract Comparisons Henry Hub vs. National Balancing Point from June 2012 Chart 7b NPB (ICE) NYMEX Differential illion Btus. US Dollars per m

17 Forward Price Curves for Natural Gas at Henry Hub and NBP NYMEX (Henry Hub) and ICE (UK National Balancing Point) Price Settlements for future gas delivery contracts, end of week Chart 8a USD per million Btus UK Gas November 29 NYMEX November 29 UK Gas December 6 NYMEX December 6 UK Gas December 13 NYMEX December 13 contract delivery months

18 Chart 8b Page 1 of 5 Pages NYMEX Futures Premium over UK Futures for Natural Gas (UK Futures Premium over NYMEX Futures in red) US Dollars per million Btus Settlement Prices on: Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct December ' December ' November ' November ' November ' November ' November ' October ' October ' October ' October ' September ' September ' September ' September ' August ' August ' August ' August ' August ' July ' July ' July ' July ' June ' June ' June ' June ' May ' May ' May ' May ' May ' April ' April ' April ' April ' March ' March '

19 Chart 8b Page 2 of 5 Pages NYMEX Futures Premium over UK Futures for Natural Gas (UK Futures Premium over NYMEX Futures in red) US Dollars per million Btus Settlement Prices on: Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct March ' March ' March ' February ' February ' February ' February ' January ' January ' January ' January ' December ' December ' December ' December '

20 Prices on: 13 December '13 6 December '13 29 November '13 22 November '13 15 November '13 8 November '13 1 November '13 25 October '13 18 October '13 11 October '13 4 October '13 27 September '13 20 September '13 13 September '13 6 September '13 30 August '13 23 August '13 16 August '13 9 August '13 2 August '13 26 July '13 19 July '13 12 July '13 5 July '13 28 June '13 21 June '13 14 June '13 7 June '13 31 May '13 24 May '13 17 May '13 10 May '13 3 May '13 26 April '13 19 April '13 12 April '13 5 April '13 28 March '13 22 March '13 Chart 8b Page 3 of 5 Pages NYMEX Futures Premium over UK Futures for Natural Gas (UK Futures Premium over NYMEX Futures in red) US Dollars per million Btus Settlement Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec

21 Prices on: 15 March '13 8 March '13 1 March '13 22 February '13 15 February '13 8 February '13 1 February '13 25 January '13 18 January '13 11 January '13 4 January '13 28 December '12 21 December '12 14 December '12 7 December '12 Chart 8b Page 4 of 5 Pages NYMEX Futures Premium over UK Futures for Natural Gas (UK Futures Premium over NYMEX Futures in red) US Dollars per million Btus Settlement Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec

22 Prices on: 13 December '13 6 December '13 29 November '13 22 November '13 15 November '13 8 November '13 1 November '13 25 October '13 18 October '13 11 October '13 4 October '13 27 September '13 20 September '13 13 September '13 6 September '13 30 August '13 23 August '13 16 August '13 9 August '13 2 August '13 26 July '13 19 July '13 12 July '13 5 July '13 28 June '13 21 June '13 14 June '13 7 June '13 31 May '13 24 May '13 17 May '13 10 May '13 3 May '13 26 April '13 19 April '13 12 April '13 5 April '13 28 March '13 22 March '13 NYMEX Futures Premium over UK Futures for Natural Gas (UK Futures Premium over NYMEX Futures in red) US Dollars per million Btus Settlement Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec Chart 8b Page 5 of 5 Pages

23 Gross Calorific Values of Gas Sent Out Chart 9a Canaport Everett Elba Island Isle of Grain South Hook Sines (Portugal) Zeebrugge (Belgium) Btus per cubic foot

24 Wobbe Indices of Gas Sent Out Chart 9b Some US terminals have been dropped from the chart due to their lack of activity. They will be added when there is significant throughput. Canaport Elba Island FERC Florida Decision Min Everett FERC Florida Decision Max In mid October 2012 Trunklineceased reporting quality data on the grounds that the terminal is no longer active. Trunkline is no longer included in this chart. Wobbe Index (US Units)

25 6,000 5,000 Monthly European LNG Imports 2011* not including Netherlands, Italy and Portugal. *since M arch 2011, date of Great Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami Spain France Zeebrugge UK Turkey Note: Current month data based on published plans where available. Earlier months based on published reports and NATS' estimates. Imports for Spain, France and Zeebrugge are net of re exports. Chart 10 thousands of cubic meters of LNG landed 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Pan EurAsian Enterprises, Inc. NATS Weekly Summary Report as of December 16, 2013