Regional Conservation Update: News From the Front

Transcription

1 Regional Update: News From the Front Tom Eckman January 24, 2007

2 What You re About To Hear A Short History What We ve Accomplished in the past 25 years Some Current Events How We re Doing on the 5 th Plan s s Targets The Road Ahead Are We In for Another Mister Toad s s Wild Ride? slide 2

3 PNW Energy Efficiency Achievements Average Megawatts 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over 3000 amw of Savings BPA and Utility Programs Alliance Programs State Codes Federal Standards slide 3

4 Average Megawatts Energy Efficiency Resources Significantly Reduced Projected PNW Electricity Sales 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 Medium High Forecast Medium Low Medium High Minus Actual 16,000 14,000 slide

5 Energy Efficiency Met Nearly 40% of PNW Regional Firm Sales Growth Between % 61% Generation slide 5

6 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 slide 6 Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A BARGAIN! Levelized Cost of Efficiency Acquisitions Wholesale Market Price Nov-96 May-97 Nov-97 May-98 Nov-98 May-99 Nov-99 May-00 Nov-00 May-01 Nov-01 May-02 Nov-02 May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 May-96 Wholesale Electricity Price (2000$/MWH)

7 Regional Utility Acquisitions Have Also Helped Balance Loads & Resources Creating Mr. Toad s s Wild Ride for the PNW s s Energy Efficiency Industry Acquisitions (amw) Response to NW Recession Response to Restructuring Discussions Response to West Coast Energy Crisis Short Term Memory Loss? slide

8 So What s s 3100 amw? It s s enough electricity to serve the entire state of Idaho and all of Western Montana It s s enough electricity to meet nearly 60% of Oregon total electricity use It saved the region s s consumers more than $1.25 billion in 2004 It lowered 2004 PNW carbon emissions by an estimated 13 million tons. slide 8

9 With All We ve Accomplish You Might Ask Yourself IS THAT AS GOOD AS IT GETS? slide 9

10 5 th Plan Relies on and Renewable Resources to Meet Load Growth* 5000 Cumulative Capacity (MW)* Coal (ICG) (MW) CCGTurbine (MW) SCGTurbine (MW) DR (MW) Wind (MW) (amw) *Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation accomplishments) will change resource development schedule and amounts

11 Accelerating Development Reduces Cost & Risk $40 $38 $36 NPV (billion 2004$) $34 $32 $30 $28 $26 $24 $22 $20 Option 1 - Accelerated Option 2 - Sustained Option 3 - Status Quo NPV System Cost NPV System Risk slide 11

12 Accelerating Reduces Carbon Dioxide Emissions 140 Cumulative Emissions (Tons) slide 12 0 Option 1 - Accelerated Option 2 - Sustained Option 3 - Status Quo

13 70 Meeting 5 th Plan s s Targets Reduces Forecast PNW Power System CO2 Emissions in 2025 by Nearly 20% 2025 CO2 Emissions (tons) slide 13 With 5th Plan's Without 5th Plan's

14 Are We Achieving the 5 th Plans Near-Term Targets? ( ) 2009) = 700 amw 160 Residential - Lost Opportunity 140 Resource (amw) Commercial - Lost Opportunity Irrigated Agriculture - Non Lost Opportunity Industrial - Non Lost Opportunity Residential - Non Lost Opportunity 20 Commercial - Non Lost Opportunity slide 14

15 s s Regional Technical Forum Is Surveying Utility Progress on Not All Returns Have Been Counted 62 Utilities 88% of Regional Load slide 15

16 Early Returns Show We re Close on the Savings Savings (amw) Target 2006 Target Alliance Programs (Utility and Bonneville Funded) Bonneville Funded Utility Funded slide 16 0 Savings (amw) Savings (amw)

17 Appears to Be Lower Cost... At Least To Utilities Utility Expenditure (Million 2000$) slide 17 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 $152* 5 th Plan Estimate of Utility Cost of for share of Target: $180 to $225 million May Hit savings targets with lower than expected cost No data yet on levelized cost to compare to wholesale power costs Equivalent to 1.75% of Regional Retail Revenues

18 2005 Cost Range $4.50 slide 18 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Utility Cost of Continue to Decrease First Year Cost/aMW (million 2000$)

19 Are Individual Utilities Making Their Targets? slide 19

20 Caveats on Utility Targets Targets are based share of regional load, hence assume all utilities look like the region NOT SO! potential varies due to customer mix, gas/electric market share, load growth,etc. slide 20 Utility IRPs will differ from Plan Lumpy-factor: Annual program volume varies Still, many utilities want to know their share of the regional conservation targets

21 2005 Findings by Utility 16 Largest Utilities or 85% of Regional Loads Four utilities far exceed targets 15 to 35% above share of regional target Four utilities within 10% of target Eight utilities fell short Seven achieved less than half of their share of regional target slide 21

22 2005 Results 16 Largest Utilities 85% of Regional Loads 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Energy Trust PSE EWEB Avista PacifiCorp - WA Benton PUD SCL Snohomish PUD NorthWestern(W MT) PacifiCorp - ID IPC Chelan PUD Grant PUD Cowlitz PUD Clark PUD Tacoma Power slide 22 Savings Relative to 5th Plan Target

23 2006 Preliminary Results 16 Largest Utilities 85% of Regional Loads 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% slide 23 0% PacifiCorp - WA PSE EWEB Energy Trust Snohomish PUD SCL Avista IPC NorthWestern(W MT) PacifiCorp - ID Grant PUD Benton PUD Chelan PUD Cowlitz PUD Clark PUD Tacoma Power Savings Relative to 5th Plan Target

24 Average Preliminary Preliminary Results 16 Largest Utilities 85% of Regional Loads 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% slide 24 0% Energy Trust PacifiCorp - WA PSE EWEB Avista SCL Snohomish PUD Benton PUD NorthWestern(W MT) IPC Grant PUD Chelan PUD Cowlitz PUD PacifiCorp - ID Clark PUD Tacoma Power Savings Relative to 5th Plan Target

25 Bonneville Achieved It s Targets Annual Accomplishments (amw) BPA's Original FY02-FY06 Rate Period Target BPA's Revised FY02-FY06 Target (5th Plan) BPA's Actual Achievements BPA's Achievements (Adjusted for carry over) slide 25

26 However, BPA Has Exhausted Its Surplus FY07 Achievements Must Be Nearly 50% Above FY06 Savings (amw) slide 26

27 With Bonneville s Carry Over The Region Exceeds the 5 th Plan Targets Savings (amw) Target 2006 Target Alliance Programs (Utility and Bonneville Funded) Bonneville (Carry Over) Bonneville Utility slide Preliminary Projected 2006

28 The Road Ahead Is this the Renaissance? slide 28

29 The Road Ahead A Brighter Lower Wattage Over 7 million CFLs sold in 2005 PNW has 16% of all US installs State & Federal standards for 17 appliances Help hit targets beginning 2008 BPA has several new regional initiatives underway slide 29 Commercial & Industrial program participation is up

30 The Road Ahead Utilities Appear to Be Ramping Up PSE is developing a green utility strategy Avista has increased its annual efficiency goal by 20% -- and management has asked staff to squeeze out more efficiency company wide Idaho Power expects to nearly double its efficiency expenditures next year PGE has initiated discussions that could lead to an increase in Energy Trust funding slide 30

31 I-937 Passed slide 31

32 Now It Must Be Implemented slide 32

33 I-937 Failed In Most Counties Served by Public Utilities Who Do Not Appear to Be Achieving the 5 th Plan s Targets slide % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% I-937 Failed in the Counties Served by these Utilities Percent of 5th Plan Target PacifiCorp - WA PSE Avista SCL Snohomish PUD Benton PUD Mason PUD #3 Lewis PUD Grant PUD Chelan PUD Grays Harbor PUD Cowlitz PUD Clallam PUD Clark PUD Tacoma Power Peninsula Light

34 After A Quarter Century The Region May Finally Achieve the Power Act s s Vision of Making the Inefficient Use of Electricity... Immoral Illegal Unprofitable slide 34

35 Thank you very much. Thank you verry, verry much. slide 35