The Outlook and Challenges facing the Chemical Industry Implications for the Industry in UAE?
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1 The Outlook and Challenges facing the Chemical Industry Implications for the Industry in UAE? Prepared for: Abu Dhabi International Downstream Summit Dr. Andrew Spiers
2 Nexant Energy & Chemicals Advisory Strategic Planning Project Feasibility Strategic Planning Project Feasibility Nexant Thinking Nexant Training Energy Independent Expert/Litigation and Expert Witness Commercial and Market Analysis Merger and Acquisition Technology Evaluation and Management Project Finance The Outlook and Challenges facing the Chemical Industry
3 The Petrochemical industry continues to change globally, creating challenges and opportunities CHANGING STRUCTURE Downstream Shift Clusters/Mega Sites - Refinery Petchem Integration GEOGRAPHIC SHIFTS Population/Market Shift to Asia Geographic Shift of Investment Emergence of China Changing ME attractiveness PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY CHANGING BUSINESS M&A Activity Increase Emergence of New Global Majors CHANGING FEEDSTOCKS Changes in Competitiveness - US/ME Coal/Shale Gas in Asia? Renewables Oil Price Influences The Outlook and Challenges facing the Chemical Industry
4 Recent global developments are influencing the opportunities in the Middle East and have implications for UAE Issue Lower Oil Price Environment Impact Changed relative competitiveness of upstream chemicals sector Limited GCC ethane availability Slow down in project activity Shift to heavier feedstock: broader range of feedstocks changed competitiveness Increased refinery petrochemical integration focus - broader range of feedstocks Economic growth in region Shift to more sophisticated products: pay for value Increased end use sector demand: reaching critical mass? The Outlook and Challenges facing the Chemical Industry
5 Ethylene Cash Cost (Current US dollars per ton ethylene) Lower oil price changes the relative competitiveness of the GCC feedstock base to the downstream sector Future global ethylene production cost curves at different crude oil scenarios Naphtha & Other Liquids feedstock cracking Oil Price Scenario (per barrel) $ Ethane & Other lighter Feedstock cracking $100 $70 $ Ethylene Cumulative Capacity (million tons) AIS\GPCA 11 Annual Conference November
6 Sadara will be the first complex in the GCC to crack naphtha. The project will have a differentiated product slate as 14 of the 26 products will be new the GCC. New products streams from Sadara will provide opportunities for downstream industries Saudi Aramco Natural Gas Grid Saudi Aramco Shell Refinery Company (SASREF) Ethane C2 Naphtha C5-C12 40% 60% Hydrocarbons Single Mixed Feed Cracker Ethylene Propylene C4 s Sadara Clusters: Plastics LLDPE & HDPE Elastomers LDPE Chemicals Propylene Glycols (PG) Polyols Butyl Glycol Ethers (BGE) Ethanolamines (EDA) Ethyleneamines (EAE) Dedicated Offtakers via PlasChem Park Speciality films Household products PU systems Adhesives and sealants Paints and coatings Laminates Saudi Aramco Total Refining & Petrochemical Company (SATORP) Benzene Aromatics Hydrogenation & Extraction Isocyanates Polymeric Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate (PMDI) Toluene Diiosocyanate (TDI) Oil and gas chemicals Detergents Water treatment Cables SASREF Toluene Construction material Compounding SABIC Furniture/ insulation Linde Others Automotive fluids Automotive components The Outlook and Challenges facing the Chemical Industry
7 Uncertain times but sources of competitive advantage remain clear and robust in refining and chemicals sectors PARAMETER KEY OBJECTIVES Size Capture economies of scale Location Access to low cost feedstocks/ deficit markets Configuration Cost advantage/product differentiation Integration Synergies with adjacent facilities The Outlook and Challenges facing the Chemical Industry
8 Benchmarking helps identify the strengths and allows opportunity to address the weaknesses necessary to create a competitive cluster Key Success Factors Rotterdam Antwerp Site X Site Y Site Z S M W S M W S M W S M W S M W Feedstocks Logistics to Main Markets Land Availability/ Labour Costs Utilities/Services Environmental Permitting Fiscal Incentives Marketing S = Strong M = Moderate W = Weak The Outlook and Challenges facing the Chemical Industry
9 Nexant, Inc. 1 King s Arms Yard, London, EC2R 7AF Telephone: Facsimile: This report ( Report ) was prepared by Nexant Ltd ( NEXANT ), for the use of Client ( CLIENT ) in its consideration of whether and how to proceed with the subject of this Report. Except where specifically stated otherwise in the Report, the information contained herein was prepared on the basis of information that is publicly available or was provided by the CLIENT or by a third party, and the information has not been independently verified or otherwise examined to determine its accuracy, completeness or financial feasibility. Neither NEXANT, CLIENT nor any person acting on behalf of either assumes any liabilities with respect to the use of or for damages resulting from the use of any information contained in this Report. NEXANT does not represent or warrant that any assumed conditions will come to pass. This Report is current as of the date herein and NEXANT has no responsibility to update this Report. This Report is integral and must be read in its entirety. The Report is submitted on the understanding that the CLIENT will maintain the contents confidential except for the CLIENT s internal use. The Report should not be reproduced, distributed or used without first obtaining prior written consent by NEXANT. This Report may not be relied upon by others. San Francisco New York Houston Washington London Bahrain Singapore Bangkok Shanghai Kuala Lumpur
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