Gulf Coast Energy Outlook: Addendum.

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1 Gulf Coast Energy Outlook: Addendum. Addendum accompanying whitepaper. See full whitepaper here. David E. Dismukes, Ph.D. Gregory B. Upton, Jr., Ph.D. Center for Energy Studies Louisiana State University Christopher Coombs, Ph.D. Dek Terrell, Ph.D. Economics & Policy Research Group E.J. Ourso College of Business Louisiana State University

2 Overview Gulf Coast Energy Outlook The inaugural Gulf Coast Energy Outlook seeks to provide a broad overview of the current status of trends guiding energy markets with an emphasis on the Gulf Coast Region. The research initiative is a collaborative effort of Louisiana State University s Center for Energy Studies and E.J. Ourso College of Business and focuses on the energy sector of the gulf Coast Region s economy. This document is an addendum to the whitepaper that can be found on the LSU Center for Energy Study s website. The whitepaper includes a number of graphs and figures and provides readers with a general understanding of the research vision and methodology. This addendum provides significantly more detailed figures for reader s wanting a more supporting information. 2

3 Overview Take-Aways Lower prices reduced upstream activity, but a slow recovery has started given the OPEC-induced price increase. Natural gas experience shows that (crude oil) price recovery will be a long time coming. Recent crude oil drilling/production activity is contributing to a significant rebound in associated gas production that will likely sink the recent, short-lived natural gas price rebound. U.S. producers are very efficient and have reduced costs, increased capital & operating efficiencies, and increased well productivity ( the best solution for low prices is low prices. ) Crude oil and natural gas prices likely to remain range-bound with lower relative pricing volatility. Continued positive investment/development activity in mid-stream, refining, and processing/manufacturing as well as energy exports. 3

4 Overview U.S. natural gas reserves and production. Natural gas production and reserves are at levels not seen since the 1970s and both U.S. natural gas production and reserves are now at an all time recorded peak U.S. Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves (Tcf) reserve estimates mark the first decline in 14 years U.S. Natural Gas Marketed Production (Tcf) Natural Gas Reserves Natural Gas Production Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 4

5 Overview U.S. crude oil reserves and production. Crude oil production and reserves are climbing back to levels not seen since the early 1980s (reserves). U.S. Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Bbl) U.S. Crude Oil Production (Billion Bbl) Crude Oil Reserves Crude Oil Production Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 5

6 Recent Market Trends 6

7 Recent Trends Recent energy market drivers/changes. Recent market changes: Non-OPEC production surge. OPEC floods market with predatory production action. Post-price-crash industry restructuring and resiliency. Recent OPEC production cuts. U.S. drilling/production response. 7

8 Recent Trends Monthly global and U.S. crude oil production. Production (MBbl/d) In the last ten years, global crude oil production has increased at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent. The U.S. share has increased from seven percent to over 11 percent Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 World U.S. U.S. as a Percent of Total World 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Percent of Total (%) Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 8

9 Recent Trends OPEC crude oil production agreements. The recent OPEC agreements have had the largest most recent impact on supply and prices Production Reference Level Production Effective Estimated Country Level Adjustment January 2017 Change (MBbl/day) (%) OPEC Countries Algeria 1, , % Angola 1, , % Ecuador % Gabon % Indonesia* Iran 3, , % Iraq 4, , % Kuwait 2, , % Libya Nigeria Qatar % Saudi Arabia 10, , % UAE 3, , % Venezuela 2, , % Total OPEC Adj. 31,236-1,441 29, % Non-OPEC Countries -558 Total Adjustment -1,999 Note: *Indonesia has suspended its OPEC membership. Non-OPEC countries include Azerbaijan, Kingdom of Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Sultanate of Oman, the Russian Federation, Republic of Sudan, and Republic of South Sudan Source: 9

10 Recent Trends U.S. crude oil prices and rig count. Rig counts have fallen precipitously, but are back on the rise. 1,800 $120 Number of Rigs 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, WTI Price Rig Count Jan 2009 $ Jan 2016 $ $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Crude Oil Price ($/Bbl) 0 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Crude Oil Rigs WTI Price $0 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy; and Baker Hughes. 10

11 Recent Trends Monthly U.S. horizontal drilling rig activity (per major basin). Horizontal rig activity increased by 400 percent to 2015 but fell by over half during the ensuing price collapse. Current rebound is highly concentrated in the Permian basin. 1,200 1,000 Rig Count Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Bakken Eagle Ford Marcellus Permian Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 11

12 Recent Trends Monthly U.S. crude oil production. U.S. Crude Oil Production (Million Bbl per day) U.S. crude oil production volumes are up by over 75 percent relative to historic trends. While production is down, it is still resilient and relatively strong Share of Production, 2016 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Bakken Eagle Ford Marcellus Permian Other Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 12

13 Recent Trends Monthly U.S. natural gas production. U.S. natural gas production has increased 42 percent in the last 10 years. U.S. Natural Gas Production (Bcf per day) Share of 2016 Production 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Bakken Eagle Ford Marcellus Permian Other Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 13

14 Recent Trends U.S. crude oil stocks. U.S. crude oil stocks have increased at an average annual rate of two percent. Between 2014 and 2015 stocks increased eight percent; and another five percent in U.S. Crude Oil Stocks (Billion Bbls) Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Crude Oil Stocks 5-Year Average Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 14

15 Recent Trends U.S. natural gas storage. Current natural gas storage levels are 16 percent above five year averages and 18 percent below the recent five year maximum U.S. Natural Gas Storage (Tcf) Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Working Gas 5-Year Min 5-Year Max 5-Year Average Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 15

16 Recent Trends Associated natural gas production (shale production). Growth in associated natural gas is rebounding quickly and tanking the shortlived rebound in natural gas prices Bcf / MMBbl Associated natural gas production is starting to rebound with revived crude oil production, particularly in the Permian Basin. 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 16

17 Recent Trends Monthly drilled but uncompleted wells. Drilled but uncompleted wells have increased by almost 50 percent in the last few years. 6 5 Thousand Wells Share of Wells Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara Permian Utica - Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Note: Share of wells is the average of the last six months, September 2016 through February Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 17

18 Recent Trends Wellhead breakeven prices for key shale plays. Since 2013, the average wellhead break-even price for key shale plays has decreased from $80 per barrel to $35 per barrel, representing an average decrease of over 55 percent. 120 Bakken Eagle Ford Niobrara Permian Delaware Permian Midland $ per Bbl Note: Author s estimate from source. Source: Rystad Energy NASWellCube. 18

19 Recent Trends Crude oil price outlook. Most crude oil price projections for 2017 are around $55 per barrel. Prices are expected to increase in 2018, but remain below $75 per barrel. Percent $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $93.26 $48.69 $43.14 EIA $52.50 Goldman Sachs, Q1: $ Deloitte $55.00 Morgan Stanley $51.00 Jeffries $57.00 Bank of America $59.00 Goldman Sachs, Q2: $57.50 Street Consensus EIA $59.00 $55.20 Goldman Sachs $55.00 Raymond James $75.00 Morgan Stanley $64.00 $20 $10 $ Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 19

20 Recent Trends Natural gas price outlook. Natural gas prices are expected to stay below $3.55 per MMBtu in 2017 and under $3.75 in Percent $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $4.39 $2.63 $2.52 EIA $3.55 IMF $3.00 Wells Fargo $ Deloitte $3.25 Bloomberg $3.17 World Bank $3.00 EIA $3.73 IMF $3.10 Wells Fargo $3.41 Bloomberg $3.14 World Bank $3.50 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 20

21 Recent Trends U.S. crude oil production trends and forecast. US crude production will likely increase to over 10 MMBbls/d by Production (MMBbl per day) Forecast period

22 Recent Trends Gulf coast crude oil production trends and forecast. The Gulf Coast forecast, which includes all Texas Permian production, accounts for a significant share of the gain in U.S. crude oil production Production (MMBbl per day) Forecast period

23 Recent Trends U.S. natural gas production trends and forecast. U.S. natural gas production continues to be resilient and shows continued strong growth through 2020 and beyond Production (Bcf per day) Forecast period

24 Recent Trends U.S. natural gas production trends and forecast. The Gulf Coast makes a significant contribution to the 80 Bcf/d U.S. market, but the Marcellus accounts for the largest relative share Production (Bcf per day) Forecast period

25 Industrial outlook 25

26 Industrial outlook Natural gas pricing trends and volatility. New Natural Shale-based Gas End Uses resources & Fuel have Diversity changed Concerns natural gas price volatility. $20 $18 Average : $6.24 (standard deviation: $2.39) $16 $14 $12 Average : $2.89 (standard deviation: $1.46) Average post 2008: $3.52 (standard deviation: $0.93) $/Mcf $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 26

27 5.0 Manufacturing Industrial Renaissance outlook Gulf of Mexico region: energy manufacturing capital expenditures (by state). An estimated $240 billion in new energy-based manufacturing development is expected, most of which should occur between 2015 and Billion $ $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Louisiana Texas Alabama/Mississippi Source: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies. 27

28 Gulf of Mexico region: total proposed capital expenditures by sector. 5.0 Manufacturing Industrial Renaissance outlook Of the proposed facility expansions in the Gulf of Mexico region, LNG export facilities comprise the majority of proposed capital spending. LNG Export, 59% Cracker/Polymer, 22% Methanol/Ammonia, 11% Other, 8% Source: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies. 28

29 Louisiana energy manufacturing total capital expenditures by sector. The continued low natural gas price outlook has facilitated considerable development of over $142 billion: $46 billion already completed, $96 billion remaining, but heavily concentrated in LNG export facilities. $30 Industrial outlook $25 $20 Billion $ $15 $10 $5 $ LNG Export Methanol/Ammonia Cracker/Polymer Other Source: David E. Dismukes (2013). Unconventional Resources and Louisiana s Manufacturing Development Renaissance. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies and author s updates. 29

30 1. Ammonia/Nitrogen Manufacturing Industrial outlook Ammonia demand and capacity outlook. Excess global supply may start to build through The degree to which the market potentially becomes over-supplied will be function of project cancellations (if any) and continued growth Million metric tons These projections do not account for the relative competitiveness of proposed capacity additions. In most instances, US-GOM commodity chemical production ranks relatively low on the global supply curve (i.e., is very competitive) Demand World Capacity U.S. Capacity GOM Capacity Source: Author s construct from previous slides. 30

31 1. Ammonia/Nitrogen Industrial Manufacturing outlook Methanol demand and capacity outlook. Excess global supply may start to build through The degree to which the market potentially becomes over-supplied will be function of project cancellations (if any) and continued growth These projections do not account for the relative competitiveness of proposed capacity additions. In most instances, US-GOM commodity chemical production ranks relatively low on the global supply curve (i.e., is very competitive). Million metric tons Demand World Capacity U.S. Capacity GOM Capacity Source: Author s construct from previous slides. 31

32 1. Ammonia/Nitrogen Industrial Manufacturing outlook Ethylene demand and capacity outlook. Excess global supply may start to build through The degree to which the market potentially becomes over-supplied will be function of project cancellations (if any) and continued growth Million metric tons These projections do not account for the relative competitiveness of proposed capacity additions. In most instances, US-GOM commodity chemical production ranks relatively low on the global supply curve (i.e., is very competitive) Demand World Capacity U.S. Capacity GOM Capacity Source: Author s construct from previous slides. 32

33 Industrial outlook GOM LNG capacity. Regasification Existing Under Construction Approved Liquefaction L F P Existing Under Construction Approved N G J H D K C B Q R O A M I E Existing A. Everett, MA: Bcfd B. Cove Point, MD: 1.8 Bcfd C. Elba Island, GA: 1.6 Bcfd (+0.5 Expansion) D. Lake Charles, LA: 2.1 Bcfd E. Northeast Gateway, Offshore MA: 0.8 Bcfd F. Freeport, TX: 1.5 Bcfd (+2.5 Expansion) G. Sabine, LA: 4.0 Bcfd H. Hackberry, LA: 1.8 Bcfd (+0.85 Expansion) I. Neptune, Offshore MA: 0.4 Bcfd J. Sabine Pass, TX: 1.0 Bcfd (+ 1.0 Expansion) K. Pascagoula, MS: 1.5 Bcfd Under Construction L. Corpus Christi, TX: 2.14 Bcfd Approved M. Fall River, MA: 0.8 Bcfd N. Port Arthur, TX: 3.0 Bcfd O. Logan, NJ: 1.2 Bcfd P. Port Lavaca, TX: 1.0 Bcfd Q. Port Baltimore, MD: 1.5 Bcfd R. LI Sound, NY: 1.0 Bcfd 33

34 Industrial outlook U.S. LNG capacity development outlook. If all of the LNG export applications currently filed with the Department of Energy were to come online, U.S. liquefaction capacity would exceed 50 Bcf per day by Most of this capacity would come online in Capacity (Bcf/d) Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Existing Capacity Additional Capacity 34

35 Industrial outlook GOM LNG capacity development outlook. If all of the LNG export applications currently filed with the Department of Energy were to come online, the GOM liquefaction capacity would exceed 45 Bcf per day by Most of this capacity would come online in Capacity (Bcf/d) Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Existing Capacity Additional Capacity 35

36 Industrial outlook U.S. refining capacity and utilization. Operable capacity at U.S. refineries has increased nearly 20 percent since 1995 while utilization has remained stable at 90 percent. Surplus Capacity (MMBbl/d) 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 14, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 13,500 0% Operable Capacity Utilization Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 36

37 Industrial outlook Gulf Coast petroleum net exports. The Gulf Coast region became a net exporter of petroleum products at the end of Since then net exports have increased at an average annual rate of 40 percent. Gulf Coast Petroleum Imports and Exports (MMBbl per day) Jan-2004 Jan-2006 Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Jan-2016 Imports Exports Net Exports Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 37

38 Industrial outlook U.S. petroleum product imports and exports. In 2011, the U.S. became a net exporter of petroleum products. Net exports have increased 360 percent since then. 5 Petroleum Product Imports and Exports (MMBbl per day) Exports Imports Net exports Distillate Motor gasoline Other petroleum products Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 38

39 Industrial outlook GOM refinery capacity outlook. GOM refinery capacity has been increasing annually at an average rate of 1.5 percent per year Capacity (MMBbl per day) Existing Capacity Additional Capacity 39

40 Energy Employment Outlook 40

41 Key Industries Oil and Gas NAICS 211: Oil and Gas Extraction NAICS 213: Support Activities for Mining Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing NAICS 324: Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing (refineries) NAICS 325: Chemical Manufacturing 41

42 Relative energy sector sizes as measured by employment. Percent of State Total Employment Percent of Industry Employment in US Region Oil and Gas Refining and Chemical Manufacturing Oil and Gas Refining and Chemical Manufacturing Alabama 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.4% Florida 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3% Louisiana 2.3% 1.9% 7.9% 4.0% Mississippi 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% Texas 2.2% 0.9% 46.7% 11.1% Gulf Total 1.3% 0.7% 55.7% 19.8% US Total 0.4% 0.7% 100.0% 100.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2015 annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data. 42

43 Relative energy sector sizes as measured by GSP. Percent of State Total Employment Percent of Industry Employment in US Region Oil and Gas Refining and Chemical Manufacturing Oil and Gas Refining and Chemical Manufacturing Alabama Florida Louisiana Mississippi Texas Gulf Total US Total 0.5% 3.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.4% 7.7% 16.7% 4.6% 7.7% 1.5% 3.5% 0.4% 0.7% 14.3% 6.0% 56.7% 18.4% 8.4% 5.1% 61.9% 29.4% 2.4% 3.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 43

44 Employment Louisiana oil and gas employment forecast 55,000 50,000 45,000 Jobs 40,000 35,000 30,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 44

45 Employment Texas oil and gas employment forecast 300, ,000 Jobs 200, , ,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 45

46 Employment Louisiana refinery and chemical sector employment forecast 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 Jobs 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 46

47 Employment Texas refinery and chemical sector employment forecast 115, , ,000 Jobs 100,000 95,000 90,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 47

48 Conclusions 48

49 Conclusions Conclusions Crude oil and natural gas markets continue to be resilient. Prices anticipated to remain affordable and less volatile. Natural gas supply growth increasingly driven by associated natural gas a byproduct of increasing production coming from higher hydrocarbon-based production (Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken). Crude production developments will continue to have implications for natural gas markets. Economic growth is likely the only near-term factor that will burn-off excessive commodity storage levels. Likely to continue to crude oil and natural gas prices to be range-bound with likely lower relative pricing volatility. Continued positive investment/development activity in mid-stream, refining, and processing/manufacturing as well as energy exports. 49

50 Acknowledgements Acknowledgement: The E.J. Ourso College of Business and the Center for Energy Studies appreciate the financial support provided by Regions Bank in the development of this inaugural Gulf Coast Energy Outlook. 50

51 Addition Employment Forecasts 51

52 Employment Alabama Oil and Gas Employment Forecast 2,000 1,800 1,600 Jobs 1,400 1,200 1,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 52

53 Employment Florida Oil and Gas Employment Forecast Jobs Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 53

54 Employment Mississippi Oil and Gas Employment Forecast 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 Jobs 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 54

55 Employment Gulf Total Oil and Gas Employment Forecast Thousand jobs Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 55

56 Employment Alabama Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing Employment Forecast 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 Jobs 12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 56

57 Employment Florida Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing Employment Forecast 24,500 24,000 23,500 23,000 Jobs 22,500 22,000 21,500 21,000 20,500 20,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 57

58 Mississippi Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing Employment Forecast Employment 10,000 9,800 9,600 9,400 9,200 Jobs 9,000 8,800 8,600 8,400 8,200 8,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 58

59 Employment Gulf Total Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing Employment Forecast 200, , ,000 Jobs 185, , , , ,000 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 59

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