Trends, Issues and Market Changes for Crude Oil and Natural Gas
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1 Trends, Issues and Market Changes for Crude Oil and Natural Gas East Iberville Community Advisory Panel Meeting Syngenta September 26, 2012 Center for Energy Studies David E. Dismukes, Ph.D. Center for Energy Studies Louisiana State University
2 Introduction Summary and Take Away New natural gas supply availability is having considerable Energy-Related impacts on all energy markets today and on longer term, Carbon Dioxide forward-looking basis. 81.2% Shale revolution is now migrating into liquids and crude oil production. Facilitating additional natural gas production despite low prices. Considerable economic development opportunities. Early in the process, considerable uncertainties, considerable risks, difficult to attain information, play understandings still very preliminary policy need to manage expectations despite the (justified) excitement. 2
3 Reminder The Way Things Were 3
4 Historic Trends Long Term US Crude Oil Production Forecast (2006) Relatively uninspiring U.S. crude oil production forecast Onshore (Lower 48) Offshore (Lower 48) 5.50 Million Barrels per day Source: USDOE/EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, 2006
5 Historic Trends Long Term US Natural Gas Production Forecast (2006) Natural gas production forecasted to decrease starting in Onshore (Lower 48) Offshore (Lower 48) Trillion cubic feet Source: USDOE/EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, 2006
6 Historic Trends Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Prices reflected the state of, and outlook for, energy markets. $160 $140 Recession $16 $14 $120 First energy price crisis $12 Crude Oil ($/Bbl) $100 $80 $60 $10 $8 $6 Natural Gas ($/Mcf) $40 $4 $20 $2 $0 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Crude Oil (WTI) Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Natural Gas (Henry Hub) $0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank 6
7 Historic Trends Historic Monthly Rig Counts and Gas Production ( ) The maturing nature of US basins reflected in drilling productivity. Number of Operating Rigs 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, percent increase in production (Aug-99 to Sep-01) 158 percent increase in rigs (Apr-99 to Jul-01) Rig Count Production 4 percent decrease in production (Feb-04 to Aug-06) 131 percent increase in rigs (Apr-02 to Aug-06) Month Moving Average (Bcf/d) Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Source: Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy; and Baker-Hughes Inc. Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06
8 Historic Trends Resource Estimates: Restricted Areas (Percent Restricted) Policy advocacy focused on restricted areas as a potential solution to the resource constraint problem. ANWR = 3.5 TCF ANS = 35 TCF Source: Natural Gas: Can We Produce Enough? Independent Petroleum Association of America, website:
9 Historic Trends NPC Forecast North American Supply Disposition LNG provides 14% of the U.S. supply of natural gas by Source: National Petroleum Council
10 What Changed? The Way Things Are 1 0
11 Recent Trends Unconventional vs. Conventional Geological Formations 1 1
12 Recent Trends Shale, Horizontal Drilling, and Fractionation Shale (unconventional) wells differ from conventional wells since they are drilled horizontally and not vertically. Horizontal segments are then fractured with higher pressure water, chemicals and silica to break up the formation. The fractionation process releases/liberates the hydrocarbons. Some environmental and water use concerns expressed in some areas of the country on this drilling process. Source: Energy Tomorrow
13 Recent Trends Production from a Typical Well and Shale Well Illustrative production decline from a convention vs. shale producing well. As much as 80 percent of total production thought to occur in the first two to three years. 13
14 Recent Trends Domestic Shale Gas Basins and Plays Unlike conventional resources, shale plays (natural gas, liquids, and crudes) are located almost ubiquitously throughout the U.S. and are the primary reason for the decrease in overall and regional natural gas prices. Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 1 4
15 Game Changer 1: Natural Gas 1 5
16 Natural Gas Trends Natural Gas Price Variability The 2001 to 2009 market trend of higher average prices coupled with high volatility is reversing itself and post 2009 prices are significantly lower. $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 Average 1997 through 2000: $2.79 (standard deviation: $1.28) average for period heating season through 2008: $6.24 (standard deviation: $2.39) since 2009: $4.11 (standard deviation: $0.70) $/Mcf $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 1 6
17 Natural Gas Trends Natural Gas Proved Reserves and Production Current U.S. natural gas reserves are approaching record levels not seen since Natural gas production is at levels that surpass historic peaks Dry Natural Gas Proved Reserves (Tcf) Reserves Production Marketed Production (Tcf) Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 1 7
18 Natural Gas Trends Natural Gas Imports Natural gas imports, once thought the be the supply remedy for meeting future gas needs are falling to levels also not seen since the 1990s. 5,000 25% 4,500 Imports - Bcf 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 15% 10% 5% Percent of Total U.S. Supply - % % LNG Imports Pipeline Imports Imports as a Percent of Total Supply Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 18
19 Natural Gas Trends Annual Energy Outlook, Natural Gas Reserves Unconventional resources are not a flash in the pan and are anticipated to continue to increase over the next two decades or more Reserves - Tcf Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 19
20 Natural Gas Trends Basin Competition Close to 6,000 TCF of shale gas opportunities around the world. Coupled with 9,000 Tcf in conventional suggest a potentially solid resource base for many decades. Canada 388 Tcf U.S. 862 Tcf Mexico 681 Tcf Brazil 226 Tcf Argentina 774 Tcf France 180 Tcf Algeria 231 Tcf Libya 290 Tcf South Africa 485 Tcf Poland 187 Tcf China 1,275 Tcf Australia 396 Tcf Source: MIT Energy Initiative. 20
21 Forecast U.S. natural gas production, Shale availability will drive U.S. natural gas supply Shale Gas Production Tcf Assc. Gas Production Shale gas Tight gas Non-associated offshore Alaska Coalbed methane Associated with oil Non-associated onshore 21
22 Natural Gas Trends Choosing Most Current Natural Gas Price Forecasts: AEO-2007 to AEO-2012 Shale availability has significant impact on future price outlook Anticipated price outlook in (2010 $/MMBTU) Anticipated price outlook today Actual Henry Hub AEO-2007 AEO-2008 AEO-2009 AEO-2010 AEO-2011 AEO-2012 Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy 22
23 Game Changer 2: Crude and Liquids 2 3
24 Crude Oil Trends Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices Two significant breaks (decoupling) of natural gas and crude oil prices. Crude Oil ($/Bbl) $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 First price decoupling: Gas Up, Crude Down Recession $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 Natural Gas ($/Mcf) $20 Second price decoupling: Crude $0 Up, Gas Down Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 $2 $0 Crude Oil (WTI) Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Source: Federal Reserve Bank 24
25 Crude Oil Trends Domestic Rig Counts Onshore vs. Offshore Onshore rig counts are moving close to their pre-recession levels, primarily motivated by increased crude oil drilling, not natural gas. 2,500 Deepwater Horizon Spill U.S. Onshore Rig Count 2,000 1,500 1, U.S. Offshore Rig Count Onshore Offshore Source: Baker Hughes. 25
26 Crude Oil Trends Domestic Rig Count Crude Oil vs. Natural Gas 100% For the first time in 16 years, the number of oil rigs is equivalent to gas rigs. 90% Percent of Total Rigs 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Gas Rigs 30% 20% Oil Rigs 10% 0% Jul-87 Jul-90 Jul-93 Jul-96 Jul-99 Jul-02 Jul-05 Jul-08 Jul-11 Source: Baker Hughes. 26
27 Crude Oil Trends Rig Count and Crude Oil Price, (Each State Measured Relative to 1999 Activity) Drilling rig activity increasing rapidly in liquids rich shale. 1,400 $14 Rig Count (January 1999 = 100) 1,200 1, $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Henry Hub ($/Mcf) 0 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 $0 N. Louisiana Texas Pennsylvania New Mexico Oklahoma Wyoming Colorado Natural Gas Price Source: Baker Hughes; and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 27
28 Crude Oil Trends Rig Count, North Louisiana (Haynesville) and Texas District 1 (Eagle Ford) Indexing the rig change from January 2009 highlights the basin preference. Rig Count (January 2009=100) 1, Haynesville is losing its competitive advantage due to the liquids preference associated with other shales. $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $/BOE 0 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 $0 North Louisiana Texas - District 1 Spot Price Differential Source: Baker Hughes. Rig counts are indexed to the level of active drilling rigs in each reported area as of January
29 Crude Oil Trends Can you insert a slide that shows a 2 9
30 Crude Oil Trends Annual Production, Unconventional Resources Liquids production from shale plays > 3 million barrels per day by 2020 Associated natural gas > 7 Bcf/d of costless supply (or about 2.3 Bcf/d per every 1.0 MMBbls/d of shale-based liquids production). Bcf/d Liquids Gas Includes Eagle Ford, W. Barnett, Bakken Shales; Granite Wash, Piceance & Uinta Tight Sands E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2020E MMBBl/d Source: Advanced Resource Intl; presentation to Cheniere Board, March 2011; Cheniere Research 30
31 Closer to Home: Louisiana and the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale ( TMS ) 3 1
32 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Crude Oil Shale Opportunities -- Louisiana 1998 LGS Study primary publicly-available source of information on the formation. Lies between sands of the upper and lower Tuscaloosa. Approximately 2.7 MM acres. Varies in thickness from 500 feet (MS) to around 800 feet (LA). Shallowest opportunity around 10,000 feet mostly between 11,000 to 12,000 some areas as deep as 16,000 (EBR). Estimated potential resource of 7 BBbls. Source: Oil and Gas Journal and Louisiana Geological Survey. 32
33 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Cumulative TMS Wells Drilled Approximately 13 wells drilled to date. Source: Amelia Resources. 33
34 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Production Decline Curve Differences Recently-drilled wells located primarily in southwestern MS and in the Florida parishes. 3 4
35 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Wells Source: Amelia Resources. 35
36 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Tuscaloosa Trend Scout Report, Score Card Source: Amelia Resources. 36
37 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale TMS Daily Oil Production Initial production ( IP ) rates important, but only one of several statistics that should be reviewed given typical production characteristics and uncertainty. Source: Amelia Resources. 37
38 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale The Early Days, Eagle Ford Shale Source: Amelia Resources. 38
39 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale United States Employment (2005 = 100) Oil 150and gas employment is almost 40 percent above its 2005 level while total U.S. employment struggles to regain four years of losses. Employment (2005 = 100) Oil and gas employment Total emplyoment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 39
40 Tuscaloosa Marine Shale U.S./Shale Producing State Employment (2005 = 100) 108 A comparison of total employment tells story beyond just oil and gas. Recession not as severe; recovery more robust. 106 Employment (2005 = 100) States with major shale activity Non-shale states Shale states: LA, TX, AR, ND, UT, CO, & PA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 40
41 Conclusions 4 1
42 Conclusions Conclusions Exceptional industry performance: employment up; reserves up; production up; investment/capacity up; and exports up. Traditional sectors of energy industry have proven they are high technology, high capital, and high growth you d have a hard time figuring that out watching the nightly news. Policy and perception continue to be things that plague continued industry development. It is hard to imagine the development and innovation that could arise if the current policy uncertainty were removed. Policy uncertainty is the biggest impediment to continued development. Significant short-term policy retrenchment on unconventional resources could lead to economic impacts that would pale in comparison to past financial and housing crisis. 42
43 Questions, Comments and Discussion 43
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