The Cost of Power Generation with CCS
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1 The Cost of Power Generation with CCS Power Generation & the Environment Howard Herzog MIT October 1, 2012
2 Outline Background CCS Costs: Bottom-up and Top-down Role of CCS in a Mitigation Portfolio Comparing generic costs to real projects CCS Cost Summary
3 Simplified View for the Use of CCS Cost Estimates Cost Estimates CCS (and others) Technology Assessments Policy Assessments R&D Priorities Capital Investments Marketing Legislation Regulation Advocacy
4 Important Considerations for Cost Estimates Variability Uncertainty Bias
5 Capture Cost vs. Avoided Cost CO 2 avoided can be looked at as net amount of CO 2 captured CO 2 avoided < CO 2 captured Cost = $/ton CO 2 Avoided cost > Captured cost For mitigation purposes (CCS), avoided cost is used For utilization purposes (CCUS), capture cost is the better metric Example: $100/tCO 2 avoided, 30% energy penalty = $70/tCO 2 captured
6 CO 2 Captured vs. CO 2 Avoided Emitted Reference Plant Captured CO 2 avoided CO 2 captured Capture Plant CO2 produced (kg/kwh)
7 Bottom-up Cost Estimates Limited number of public comprehensive, independent engineering studies Quite a few derivative studies
8 Bottom-Up IEA Study Data based on in-depth review for 2011 IEA Working Paper Calibrated engineering study data of various institutions Carnegie Mellon University CMU China-UK Near Zero Emissions Coal Initiative NZEC CO2 Capture Project CCP Electric Power Research Institute EPRI Global CCS Institute GCCSI Greenhouse Gas Implementing Agreement GHG IA National Energy Technology Laboratory NETL Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT Publication years & project locations Organization CCP CMU EPRI GCCSI GHG IA NETL NZEC MIT Publication year(s) , 2009, , , , 2009 Project location EU US US US EU US CHN US Currency USD USD USD USD USD, EUR USD CNY USD Courtesy of Matthias Finkenrath/ IEA
9 Bottom-Up IEA Study Average cost estimates across studies (2010 USD, OECD countries) Fuel type Coal NG Capture route Postcombustion Precombustion Oxycombustion Postcombustion Reference plant w/out capture PC IGCC (PC) PC NGCC Net efficiency penalty (LHV, %-pts) Overnight cost w/capture (USD/kW) Relative overnight cost increase 75% 44% (71%) 74% 82% LCOE w/capture (USD/MWh) Relative LCOE increase 63% 39% (55%) 64% 33% Cost of CO 2 avoided (USD/tCO 2 ) (55) Notes: Data cover only CO2 capture and compression but not transportation and storage. The accuracy of feasibility study capital cost estimates is on average ±30%, hence for coal the variation in average overnight costs, LCOE and cost of CO2 avoided between capture routes is within the uncertainty of the study. Underlying oxy-combustion data include some cases with CO2 purities <97%. Overnight costs include owner s, EPC and contingency costs, but not IDC. A 15% contingency based on EPC cost is added for unforeseen technical or regulatory difficulties for CCS cases, compared to a 5% contingency applied for non-ccs cases. IDC is included in LCOE calculations. Fuel price assumptions differ between regions. Average overnight costs 3800 USD/kW for coal-fired power generation regardless of capture route (+74%), or 55 USD/tCO 2 cost of avoided For NGCC, on average 1700 USD/kW (+82%), or 80 USD/tCO 2
10 Top-down Cost Estimates Bottom-up estimates embedded Usually need to translate estimates from bottom-up studies Multiple technologies each technology may be from different sources no guarantee they are on consistent basis
11 Top-Down IPCC Special Report on CCS
12 Role of CCS in a Mitigation Portfolio
13 Role of CCS in a Mitigation Portfolio McKinsey& Company Estimate Gt/yr required by 2030.
14 Role of CCS in a Mitigation Portfolio Power Generation From Khesghi et al, SPE PP, 2010
15 Levelized Cost DOE s EIA Plant Type (Entering Service 2017) Total System Levelized Cost (2010 $/(MWH)) Conventional Coal $97.7 Advanced Coal $110.9 Advanced Coal with CCS $138.8 Natural Gas-Fired Conventional Combined Cycle $66.1 Advanced Combined Cycle $63.1 Advanced CC with CCS $90.1 Advanced Nuclear $111.4 Wind $96 Geothermal $98.2 Solar PV $152.7 Solar Thermal $242.0 Biomass $115.4 Hydro $88.9 From US EIA, Annual Energy Outlook, 2012
16 Comparing Generic Studies to Real Projects (FOAK from GCCSI 2011 update) RETROFIT Peterhead (hydrogen from natural gas) Antelope Valley (coal-fired) AEP Mountaineer (coal-fired) Longannet (supercritical) COST (in $/kw) Plant Barry 4375 Average 3657 GCCSI Estimate ~ T&S COAL-FIRED COST (in $/kw) Janschwalde 8065 Kingsnorth (supercritical) 8330 Average 8189 GCCSI Estimate ~4500 +T&S IGCC COST (in $/kw) Goldenbergwerk 9091 Sweeny Gasification 6003 ZeroGen Taylorville 5814 Average 7881 GCCSI Estimate ~ T&S
17 Cost Difference Observation 1 A major source of discrepancy in cost estimates is often what is actually included in the estimate. Comparing an overnight cost estimate that does not include site specific costs, such as rail spurs or transmission interconnects, financing, or escalation to an all-in total capital requirement cost will result in inconsistencies and misunderstandings.
18 Costing Terminology TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT TOTAL OVERNIGHT COST TOTAL PLANT COST BARE ERECTED COST Process equipment, Supporting facilities Labor (direct & indirect) Engineering Services Process and Project Contingency Owner s Costs, including feasibility studies, surveys, land, permitting, pre-paid royalties, inventory capital, startup, etc. Interest During Construction Escalation During Construction
19 Cost Difference Observation 2 CCS is an emerging technology and historical experience with comparable processes suggests that significant improvements are achievable. Cost Studies provide a snapshot of the believed costs at the time of the study.
20 Longonnet FEED Study Chain Segment (in m) Pre-FEED Post-FEED Capture Transport Storage Total Risk & Contingency Total Project Capex Range
21 CCS Cost Summary Costs for dilute sources like power plants (including transport and storage) N th plant starting at $70/tCO 2 avoided First-of-a-kind - $100/tCO 2 avoided or more High purity or high pressure sources will be less Given the absence of climate policy, CCS is NOT an economic option today in the power sector
22 What about CCUS (EOR)? Value of CO 2 for EOR ~$20/ton Cost of producing CO 2 from a power plant (capture cost) ~$50-70/ton Conclusion: EOR alone cannot support a commercial market for CCS from power plants
23 What about Emission Standards? At what gas price would you build coal with CCS to meet EPA s proposed 1000 lb/mwh emission standard rather than build natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants? NGCC capacity factor CO 2 Storage Option Gas Price ($/MMBtu) Range for gas price 0.45+/-0.05 EOR /-0.05 EOR /-0.05 Saline Cost assumptions for PC capture plant w/ 52.4% capture, based on NETL (2011) Cost and Performance of PC and IGCC Plants for a Range of Carbon Dioxide Capture : Capital cost: CCS plant: Lognormal distribution w/ mean 2875 $/kw, range [2700,3300] NGCC plant: Normal distribution w/ mean 892 $/kw, stdev 25 $/kw Fixed operating cost: $/kw Variable operating cost: $/kwh Heat rate: 10,662 Btu/kWh Cost of capital: 12.4% (Capture plant), 11.6% (NGCC) Coal price: 2.3 $/MMBtu Net capacity: 550 MW Capacity factor coal plant: Normal distribution w/ mean 0.75, standard deviation 0.05 EOR: CO2 produced is bought for $20/ton Saline: Injection and storage cost $20/ton
24 Can CCS Compete with the Alternatives? CCS is not competitive in today s power market (i.e., production costs about double compared to alternatives) If we are required to decarbonize our electricity system, most models show CCS will be an important, cost-effective option. Because of uncertainty regarding policy, technology, innovation, etc., it is difficult to quantify the how large an impact CCS will have.
25 Contact Information Howard Herzog Senior Research Engineer Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Energy Initiative Room E19-370L Cambridge, MA Phone: Web Site: sequestration.mit.edu
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