Institutional and Social Resilience Strategies to Manage Fragile Infrastructure

Transcription

1 Institutional and Social Resilience Strategies to Manage Fragile Infrastructure Sub M as Part of a Resilience Governance Model Dr. Craig Philip and Paul Johnson VECTOR Vanderbilt Center for Transportation and Operational Resilience Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

2 Three meta-themes: 1) Barge industry is OPERATIONALLY ROBUST 2) 2

3 The U.S. barge industry has a LOT to be proud of: We face daunting challenges 3

4 Inland waterways today: increasingly fragile infrastructure Chronic underinvestment in maintenance and renewal Pronounced increase in climate/extreme weather events 4

5 Major extreme weather events since : Record setting floods Cumberland River Basin 2011: Record setting system-wide floods 2012: Record setting system-wide low water 2015: Record setting floods Texas Gulf Coast 5

6 Record setting floods Cumberland River Basin 2010 Cheatham Lock Underwater, May 3,

7 Record setting system-wide floods 2011 Blowing up of Birds Point Levee 7

8 Record setting system-wide low water

9 Record setting floods Texas Gulf Coast 2015 Guadalupe River, Victoria, TX 9

10 The U.S. barge industry has a LOT to be proud of: Yet we are part of the SAFEST surface transport mode in the country 10

11 Rapid growth in U.S. shale liquid production, especially crude oil, has used both the rail and inland/coastal waterways to overcome limitations in the pipeline system Puget Sound Vancouver Bakken Albany San Francisco Bay St. Louis Wellsville Weirton New York Utica Marcellus Harbor Delaware Bay Kenova / Natrium Los Angeles Cushing Permian Eagle Ford Haynesville Baton Rouge Pt. Arthur St. James New Orleans Houston LOOP Freeport Corpus Christi New Crude Barge Originations New crude-by-rail unit train routes Sources: American Petroleum Institute, Company announcements, Kirby Corp. 11

12 U.S. and Canadian railroads have been the biggest beneficiaries Carloads Shipped (K) Carloads of Crude Oil Shipped by Rail in the United States by CY Source: Association of American Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 12

13 but rail accidents have tragically followed Crude Oil Accidents by Rail (K) Crude Oil Spilled (gal.) by Rail 180 1,400 Number of Accidents Gallons Spilled 1,200 1, Source: Association of American Railroads, Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration 13

14 but rail accidents have tragically followed 17 major derailments of crude oil trains since 2011 Spill quantity: 4.3 million gallons 14

15 Positive barge industry safety trends were not affected by the rapid growth in crude oil Gallons Spilled (K) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Oil Spilled from Tank Barge Without DBL-152 Total spills of crude oil since 2010: 9,000 gallons Source: U.S. Coast Guard (CG-INV) 15

16 Domestic marine crude oil tonnage increases have actually matched rail Crude Oil Tonnage (millions) Originating Area Gulf Coast Miss. Valley East Coast Total Marine Annual US Class 1 Rail Tons Source: USACE Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center Data Processed via Channel Portfolio Tool (CPT); Association of American Railroads FCS Dashboard 16

17 The U.S. barge industry has a LOT to be proud of: How did this operational resilience arise in such a vulnerable environment? 17

18 How did this operational resilience arise in a vulnerable environment? Four extreme events in five years helped train a resilient culture and response framework: Extreme weather events in Heartland Midwest Drought, lowest water ever on the Mississippi Great Flood, most widespread ever Maritime accidents of unimagined scale Exxon Valdez Bayou Canot Amtrak Accident 18

19 1988: Midwest Drought Record low levels along the Mississippi Abnormally low flow velocity Narrowed channels and crossings Source: Waterways Action Plan,

20 1993: Great Flood One of the most disastrous natural events to affect the Midwest Over 50 fatalities $14B in damaged homes and farmlands Losses for maritime industry > $200M Abnormally prolonged and severe wetweather Rivers remained at elevated stages Levee stress and failure Daniel Boone Bridge, 1993 (Highway 40 over Missouri River) Fear of vessel traffic causing additional failures/flooding from wake effects Source: Waterways Action Plan,

21 Impacted from extreme events, aligned major stakeholders promoted a resilient response culture Responsive Infrastructure Owner US Corps Embraced Operating Flexibility Especially at the Local Level 21

22 A resilient governance framework has been adopted: nonregulatory, locally implemented Network wide application Stakeholder driven guidance Well defined trigger points and responses Activated multiple times annually Continually evolving becoming Antifragile? 22

23 1989: Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Exxon Valdez oil tanker grounded on Bligh Reef, Alaska 11M gallons of crude oil spilled Largest spill in U.S. waters (until 2010 Deep Water Horizon) Legislature response: Oil Pollution Act of 1900 (OPA-90) Prince William Sound, AK, 1989 Source: Ames, 2007 (The Drive to Improve Performance in the Federal Government: A Longitudinal Case Study of Managing for Results) 23

24 Impacted from extreme events, aligned major stakeholders promoted a resilient response culture Progressive Regulator US Coast Guard Empowered by OPA 90, but Embraced Prevention Through People 24

25 1993: Bayou Canot Amtrak Accident Amtrak Sunset Limited train wreck caused by barge strike Worst accident in history of towing industry 103 casualties, 47 fatalities Tug operating in fog without radar Big Bayou Canot Bridge (Mobile, AL), 1993 Source: Ames, 2007 (The Drive to Improve Performance in the Federal Government: A Longitudinal Case Study of Managing for Results) 25

26 Impacted from extreme events, aligned major stakeholders promoted a resilient response culture Enlightened Towing Industry Adopted Responsible Carrier Program Ultimately embraced Full Regulation 26

27 Two decades of progress in towing safety 27

28 Three meta-themes: 1) 2) Barge industry is COMMERCIALLY VULNERABLE 28

29 Transformational Events and Technologies are transformational, and barge markets are not immune For example, U.S. coal demand has been impacted by: 1) The transformation in oil and gas drilling technology making natural gas cheaper Big plus for tank barge operators maybe temporary Big negative for hopper barge operators probably permanent 29

30 Transformational technologies are transformational, and barge markets are not immune For example, U.S. coal demand has been impacted by: 1) 2) The transformation of China from a rural to an urban country Big positive for hopper barge operators initially Big negative for hopper barge operators now 30

31 U.S. Lens: Coal from 2001 to Stable consumption potentially starting to decline Tripling of U.S. exports Huge increase in Chinese imports Tons (millions) of Coal U.S. Export Chines Import U.S. Consumption Source: indesmundi.com/energy; International Energy Agency 31

32 Chinese Lens: Coal from 2001 to 2012 Tripling consumption 8-fold increase in imports Tons (millions) of Coal Chines Import Chinese Consumption Source: BP Statistical Review of World s Energy; International Energy Agency 32

33 U.S. Lens: Coal since 2012 U.S. coal consumption collapse natural gas Dramatic reversal of coal exports 1200 Tons (millions) of Coal U.S. Export Chines Import U.S. Consumption 33

34 Chinese Lens: Coal since 2012 Leveling off in consumption Free-fall in imports Tons (millions) of Coal Chines Import Chinese Consumption Source: BP Statistical Review of World s Energy; International Energy Agency 34

35 Chinese cement production has far surpassed that of the U.S. U.S. and China Cement Production (millions of tons) China (2014): 2,730M tons National Geographic: Matthew Twombly U.S. (2014): 91M tons 35