U.S. Solar Market Outlook
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1 U.S. Solar Market Outlook Market Drivers and Competitive Landscape Trends Shaping U.S. Solar Demand Cory Honeyman Associate Director, U.S. Solar July 2016
2 About Greentech Media NEWS/ONLINE RESEARCH EVENT Greentech Media delivers business-to- business news, analysis and events at the forefront of the global energy transformation. Our coverage area extends across the clean energy industry with a focus on solar power and the electric utility market s evolution. Greentech Media s industry-leading coverage is provided by a team of analysts from our market intelligence arm, GTM Research, as well as our world-class journalists and global network of expert contributors. GTM Research is the market analysis and consulting arm of Greentech Media. GTM Research is comprised of analysts covering solar, grid edge, and energy storage markets. Our analysts combine diverse backgrounds in energy, environmental, emerging technology, information technology and strategic consulting sectors. This diverse team provides critical and timely market analysis in the form of research reports, consulting, and data subscription services. Greentech Media and GTM Research experts come together to produce all of Greentech Media s industry conferences throughout the year. These summits provide a platform for our latest market intelligence and draw together the industry influencers from organizations across the value chain. 1
3 U.S. Solar: Growing By Impressive Strides
4 PV Installations (MWdc) Fifteen years of growth, and this decade U.S. solar has reached new heights 8,000 7,451 7,000 6,000 6,247 5,000 4,000 3,000 95% of U.S. solar PV installations have come online this decade 3,372 4,761 2,000 1, , Residential Non-Residential Utility Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight 3
5 Share of New Capacity (%) Solar ranked as the 2 nd largest source of electric generating capacity additions in 2015 In 2015, solar added more generating capacity than natural gas on annual basis for the first time ever 45% 39% 40% 36% 35% 32% 29.6% 30% 28.6% 25% 24% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 4% 4% 3% 0.01% Wind Solar Natural Gas Coal Other Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight 4
6 Average Installed Cost ($/Watt DC) Steep cost reductions underpin U.S. solar market s growth over the last decade $9 $8 $7 $8.50 $6.20 $6.71 Module prices have dropped ~80% over the past decade Heading into 2016, cost reduction efforts continue to expand beyond the module $6 $5 $4 $3.65 $3.58 $3.33 Rooftop solar: Focus is on reducing soft costs Soft costs, including customer acquisition, accounted for 60% of average installed costs in 2015 $3 $2 $1.99 $1.36 Utility scale solar: Focus is on reducing remaining hardware costs $1 $0 $ Module Price ($/W) 5 kw Rooftop PV: Average All-In Price Per Watt 10 MW Utility Scale PV: Average All-In Price Per Watt The cost of inverters and remaining balance-ofsystems is collectively expected to drop at a faster rate than the cost of modules between now and the end of this decade 5
7 Annual PV Installations (MWdc) PV Installations (MWdc) State level drivers reveal distinct growth narratives across each market segment Utility Scale PV: Demand Emerging Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards 4, % 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 90% 89% 83% 84% 80% 70% 60% 59% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% RPS Driven Installations (%) Distributed PV: Growth and Growing Pains Amidst State Incentive Downturns As state incentive programs in major state markets declined, residential solar continued to grow while non-residential solar stalled Utility Scale PV Installations (MWdc) Source: GTM Research/SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight 0% 0 Q Q Q Q Residential Source: GTM Research/SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight Q Q Q Non-Residential 6
8 What does the future hold for U.S. solar? In a market where the 30% federal Investment Tax Credit has now been extended
9 Total Investment ($B) Federal ITC Extension: Expected to spur $30 billion of additional investment through 2020 $60.0 Underneath the ITC extension, state level drivers $50.0 $49.4 $48.9 and risks move to the forefront $43.3 Utility scale solar: $40.0 Majority of capacity additions will come from projects procured outside of Renewable Portfolio Standard $30.0 $26.5 obligations $20.0 $10.0 $12.1 $15.2 Non-residential solar: Demand is emerging beyond rooftop solar solutions to broader integrated energy management offerings $0.0 Residential PV ITC Stepdown Scenario Source: GTM Research Non-Residential PV Utility PV ITC Extension Scenario Residential solar: Growth amidst regional installers outpacing national rooftop solar companies and an evolution in net metering debates beyond fixed charges 8
10 Utility Scale Solar Market Outlook Emerging Beyond Renewable Portfolio Standards
11 Capacity (GWdc) Utility-Scale Solar Has Been On A Roll Contracted Pipeline Growth (GWdc) 44% Increase Source: GTM Research U.S. Utility PV Tracker 10
12 PPA Price ($/MWh) Dirt cheap solar PPA prices expand why and where utility scale PV is now being procured Centralized PV PPA Prices by Contract Execution Date $200 Competitive PPA prices are being signed anywhere between $35 and $60/MWh $175 $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $ PPA Contract Execution Date Source: U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker 11
13 Utility PV Project Pipeline: Tapping into Emerging Market Drivers U.S. Utility PV Pipeline: RPS vs Non-RPS Driven Pipeline Voluntary Procurement Utilities are voluntarily procuring utility PV as an economically competitive resource to meet peak power needs and replace aging coal fleets. 22% 16% 12% 50% RPS Driven Voluntary Procurement PURPA Qualified Facilities PURPA (Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act) Federal legislation that requires utilities to purchase power at or below the cost of building new generating resources or procuring power on the wholesale electricity market. 50% Offsite Corporate Non RPS Driven Offsite Corporate Procurement A growing portion of the non-rps project pipeline stems from corporations leveraging green tariffs, direct access legislation, or synthetic PPA contracts. Such virtual or physical PPAs all aim to offer corporates a hedge against natural gas price volatility. Source: U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker 12
14 Growth in utility PV stems from a crowded developer landscape Pure Play Developer Equipment Supplier Internal EPC Develop and Own Utility Affiliate Source: U.S. Utility PV Market Tracker 13
15 Utility PV Operating Capacity (MWdc) Unregulated IPP Arms of Utility Holding Companies: Leading Driver of Project M&A 8,000 7,000 7,353 Project M&A outlook in utility scale solar will be increasingly driven by unregulated IPP arms of utility holding companies 6,000 5,000 4,700 To date: Majority of utility affiliate IPPs have bought projects outside service territories of their counterpart regulated utility arms 4,000 3,000 The Southern Company Strategy: Pair its regulated utilities non- RPS procurement of large scale solar with aggressive acquisition of winning bids by unregulated IPP arm, Southern Power 2,000 1,000 1, Long Term Outlook: Regulated utility ownership of large scale solar Precedent setter in Virginia?... 0 June 2016: Dominion s Virginia Electric Power Co. received approval to rate base ownership of large scale solar and Utility Holding Company: Unregulated IPP Affiliates Utility Holding Company: YieldCo Affiliates monetize the federal ITC benefits immediately, rather than monetize over useful life of system Utility Holding Company: Regulated Utility Affiliates Non-Utility YieldCos and Other IPPs 14
16 Commercial customer demand is expanding beyond rooftop solar
17 Annual PV Installations (MWdc) Across all project sizes, non-residential solar is struggling to scale amidst incentive volatility 600 Sub 1 MW development in particular is struggling to scale <500 kw kw 1 MW
18 4 Major Reasons Behind Non-Residential Solar s Struggles 1. When state incentive funding falls, rate design exposes weak commercial solar economics 3. Project finance bottlenecks remain, especially for small commercial customers 2. Customer sited solar is not always the best fit or for medium and large commercial customers 4. Customer origination remains time consuming and complicated 17
19 The Result: A Fragmented, Regionalized Commercial Market Most notably due to weak state incentives and customer origination bottlenecks, no single developer or group of leading developers has a significant lead. Leading Non-Residential Installers, 2015 Landscape: Largely driven by regional installers but why? Commercial customer acquisition requires deep knowledge of the local market. 14% 7% SolarCity SunPower National developers have had more success originating large portfolios for large Fortune 1000 customers. But the long timeline associated with the development of these projects has prohibited those developers from scaling any more quickly than local companies developing one project at a time. 58% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% Borrego Solar Systems SunEdison Greenskies Renewable Energy All Others Source: GTM Research, U.S. PV Leaderboard 18
20 Offsite Corporate Solar Installations (MWdc) Offsite Corporate Solar Market: Set to take off in 2016 Offsite C&I Solar Market: Installations through 2015 vs. Project Pipeline Emerging Class of Large Scale Offsite Procurement by Non-Residential Customers 2,500 2,000 1,936 1,500 1,000 More than 75% of the current pipeline comes from CA, Pre Project Pipeline Source: GTM Research, Utility PV Market Tracker 19
21 MWdc Non-Residential PV Market Outlook: Reboot parallels uptick in TPO market share 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 57% 62% 65% 67% 70% 72% 74% 74% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Share of Non-Residential Market To date: 40% of installations per year have been direct cash sales simply because there was no alternative. Especially true for small non-investment grade C&I segment that has been largely underserved Looking ahead: Incremental rise in third party ownership s share of non-residential PV market Large C&I customers installing multi-site portfolios or single 10+ MW projects will continue to be TPO-driven % 10% 0% PACE: While becoming a major source of financing for small commercial, it is often combined with a lease or PPA, as in the case of SolarCity s recently announced small and medium-sized business segment. Third-Party Owned Third-Party Ownership Share Customer Owned 20
22 Residential solar outlook in context What is the future of residential solar as regulators and policymakers reevaluate rate design and net metering rules?
23 Share of Residential Market Residential Growth is Slowing Because It Must More than 50% annual growth rates for residential PV installations Sub 30% growth for U.S. residential PV market for first time since % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 58% 45% 44% 43% E SolarCity Vivint Solar Sunrun Rest of Market 22
24 Year over year growth (%) But regional market leaders are growing at a faster pace than national companies 140% 120% 100% 101% 121% 101% 80% 60% 78% 69% 40% 38% 20% 0% Q Q Q Top 3 Residential Installers Source: GTM Research U.S. PV Leaderboard Top 4-10 Residential Installers 23
25 CA HI AZ NM DE SC CT MD RI MN PA FL OR GA WI TX AR WY OH TN KS MS MT ID WA ND Amidst an evolving installer landscape, there are still 20 states at grid parity today Year One Bill Impact From Solar (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20 States At Parity 14 States W/ >10% Bill Savings 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Note: Grid parity metrics account for all NEM and rate reforms currently in effect for modeled utilities. 24
26 CA MA AZ HI DE CT MD RI CO PA ME FL WI AR OH IL LA AL IA KS NE ID OR WV OK NV Absent Rate/NEM Reform, 42 States Will Be At Parity By 2020 Year One Bill Impact From Solar (%) 30% 20% 10% 42 States At Parity 28 States W/ >10% Bill Savings 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 25
27 In Reality, NEM/Rate Reform is Well Underway States That Took Some Action on NEM, Rates, or Solar Ownership in 2015 Source: NC Clean Energy Center/Meister Consultants Group. Includes activity on NEM, Fixed Charges, Solar Charges, Significant Fixed Charges and TPO 26
28 Regardless of the Action, NEM/Rate Reform Defines Residential Solar Economics Number of States at Grid Parity in 2016: Business-as-Usual NEM vs. NEM Reform Scenarios Fixed Charge Demand Charge Export Rate Discount Business As Usual NEM $10/Month $50/Month $5/kW $15/kW 10% Export Discount 50% Export Discount Source: GTM Research Residential PV Economic Attractiveness Report 27
29 Where does community solar fit into the market outlook?
30 U.S. Homes (Millions) Community solar s addressable market is more than 7 times larger than rooftop solar Residential Customer Demographics by Rooftop Solar Constraints Share of homes owned by occupants in states where rooftop solar can be sold back to the grid who have sufficient credit scores 52.6 and have rooftops suitable for solar U.S. Households Occupied by Owner...In the 44 States With a Net Metering Policy With a FICO Score Over 680 With a Solar- Friendly Roof 0.6 That Have Already Gone Solar Source: GTM Research, U.S. Community Solar Market Outlook:
31 Community Solar Installations (MWdc) Community Solar: A small but emerging growth opportunity More than 60% of cumulative installed capacity has come online since Pre Q Cumulative Installations (MWdc) Annual Installations (MWdc) Source: GTM Research, U.S. Community Solar Market Outlook:
32 Community solar remains as fragmented as the commercial solar market Source: GTM Research, U.S. Community Solar Market Outlook:
33 Community Solar Capacity (MWdc) Breaking down the community solar outlook at the state level In states without community solar legislation Utilities need end-to-end services that extend beyond traditional project development, and enable a transition from pilot projects to megawatt-scale programs: Subscriber acquisition: Lead qualification and robust internal salesforce Program administration: Billing software platforms to seamlessly integrate community solar Customer O&M : Software platforms that allow utilities to use community solar project as a vehicle for strengthening its relationship with customers for other service offering In states with community solar legislation Increased role played by national rooftop PV companies, which 0 Operating Capacity (MWdc) Capacity in Development (MWdc) can leverage: Pre-existing salesforce in major state markets Vertically integrated business models Source: GTM Research, U.S. Community Solar Market Outlook:
34 Putting it all together 4 Trends That Will Shape The Future of U.S. Solar
35 4 Trend Shaping The U.S. Solar Market Outlook 1. National average installed costs for utility scale solar will fall below $1/Watt by The value proposition of large scale solar is expanding beyond meeting legislative or regulatory driven mandates, and serving as a cost competitive hedge against natural gas price volatility. 2. Commercial customers are increasingly procuring rooftop solar as part of a broader energy management solution. Offsite solar solutions: Economies of scale in system pricing + hedge against electricity price volatility Battery storage: Manage complex rate structures with peak demand charges and time-of-use pricing. 34
36 4 Trends Shaping The U.S. Solar Market Outlook 3. The rooftop solar policy landscape is in transition and expanding beyond fixed charge proposals. Mandatory time-of-use rates, minimum bills, and value of solar tariffs are the big three types of policy reform that are gaining traction across both utilities and solar industry advocates. 4. The extension of the federal ITC will spur 50% additional growth between 2016 and 2020 and accelerate U.S. solar s timeline towards growth via geographic diversification. 35
37 Cumulative U.S. PV Installations (MWdc) By 2020, the majority of states in the U.S. will install 100 MWdc or more of solar per year 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, , , , , , , , , ,866 64, , , Number of 100 MWdc Annual State Markets E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 0 Cumulative U.S. PV Installations (MWdc) 100 MWdc Annual State Markets Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight 36
38 Annual Investment in U.S. Solar by Segment ($bn) Between : $144 billion of total investment in U.S. solar market $16.0 $14.0 $13.1 $14.0 $13.3 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 $8.0 $9.1 $9.8 $11.7 $10.8 $9.0 $6.8 $8.7 $10.4 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $2.4 $2.7 $2.9 $3.4 $3.9 $4.5 $0.0 Residential PV Non-Residential PV Utility PV 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight 37
39 Thank you! Interested in other GTM Research products and services? Please visit or contact July 2016
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