Satellite Lady and Stroganoff: She's Got a Ticket to Ride (and She Don't Care) Marvin J. Horowitz, Ph.D.

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1 Satellite Lady and Stroganoff: She's Got a Ticket to Ride (and She Don't Care) Marvin J. Horowitz, Ph.D. 1 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

2 Attribution is an issue to be dealt with in almost every program evaluation It doesn't matter if you are dealing with: Individual programs or markets Aggregations of programs or markets Economic sectors (commercial, industrial, residential) Almost all programs overlap the general economy -- hence, they affect other markets and other geographic areas. We live in a world that is "connected." 2 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

3 Focus of this presentation National market for a discrete product State-level energy savings (meaning the combination of all energy efficiency products, services, and policies) within an economic sector 3 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

4 Measuring program benefits In social science lingo, a program is a "natural experiment" -- natural experiments are to laboratory experiments what beef stroganoff is to steak 4 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

5 How do you compare the beef in 2 different batches of beef stroganoff? Natural experiments have 2 flaws: subjects are not assigned at random and are not necessarily homogenous (quality of beef and other ingredients are not known and may not be uniform) simultaneity of "the treatment" with everything else -- beef's taste is affected by all the cooking ingredients, and possibly even by the exogenous noodles and green beans Natural experiments have 1 salvation -- a recipe that can be decomposed using multivariate statistics the noodles and green beans are easy to control for the sour cream, onions, mushrooms, sherry... less so, but not impossible 5 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

6 Things to measure to determine actual savings Physical world actual watts/therms sold (example forthcoming) capacity or wattage of products hours of use Proxies (must have high correlation with actual savings) number of units sold/affected (example forthcoming) number of staff program expenditures end user expenditures grades on exams, or other knowledge-testing survey responses 6 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

7 Market versus program effects - energy efficiency also happens without programs Some energy savings occurs independently Some energy savings attributable to public program(s) 7 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

8 Market-related savings do not occur out of thin air, which is why I don't favor the expression "naturally-occurring" Some energy savings occurs independently Some reasons: prices income/profits technology tastes demographics 8 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

9 Meet 'Satellite Lady' (a fictional program) Transportation is responsible for approximately 2,000 MMTCE per year -- this is about one-third of all of the CO2 produced in the United States Most of these 2,000 MMTCE come from petroleum burned by cars and light trucks A 1% decrease is 20 MMTCE per year -- that's the equivalent of a very, very large national DSM or MT electricity efficiency program I believe Satellite Lady can make this happen, and quickly... 9 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

10 5 good reasons to love Satellite Lady The Shortest Route from A to B Help in Planning a Multi-Destination Trip Finding Gas, Food, and Pit-Stops Avoiding Traffic and Bad Weather Never Getting Lost Again All of this can add up to significant energy and environmental savings -- not to mention increased consumer welfare due to time savings, cost savings, and lower stress. Let's assume that with proper use, Satellite Lady can save the typical driver 10% of total gasoline use (that doesn't necessarily mean "miles" because a lot of gas is wasted while being stalled in traffic) 10 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

11 Market projection and program goals All New Market-Based Navi % Navi. % with Satellite Lady Navi % Year Vehicles (1) Vehicles (1) Navi Sales (2) in New Veh. in All Veh. Program (3) with Program ,933,659 16,915,272 1,143,814 7% 0% 3,431,441 1% ,011,669 17,422,730 1,431,764 8% 1% 4,295,293 3% ,302,019 17,945,412 1,792,205 10% 2% 5,376,616 5% ,811,079 18,483,774 2,243,386 12% 3% 6,730,158 8% ,545,412 19,038,288 2,808,149 15% 4% 8,424,448 11% ,511,774 19,609,436 3,515,090 18% 5% 10,545,270 14% (1) assumes 3% annual growth rate (2) assumes 25% annual growth rate (3) assumes a tripling of sales In the language of the program evaluation community, the "baseline" is "naturally-occurring" units -- in this case, the estimated units come from the Navi industry's market projections. Program impacts are based on the units sold above and beyond the "naturally-occurring baseline" 11 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

12 Market projections are uncertain and can change... this is why I don't favor the word "baseline," either 12,000,000 Market Projection Program Goals 10,000,000 IN-VEHICLE UNITS 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, YEAR 12 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

13 Issues for the impact evaluation of Satellite Lady What were the market projections of sales based on? Did those projections incorporate changes in the costs of producing the navi systems, and changes in the prices charged to customers? Did they incorporate other factors that could affect sales (income, gas prices, etc.) What are some other factors that could change the market projections next year, and the year after,...? Is it sufficient for the program to sell more units, or must we also show that the navi systems are being used as intended? If you have reasonable familiarity and confidence in the market projections, do you need to be concerned with estimating "free riders," "spillover," or any other "net-to-gross" factors? 13 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

14 Meet 'Stroganoff' (a fictional evaluation) Like beef stroganoff, residential programs are a natural experiment. Programs affect overall electricity use along with other ingredients, e.g., price of electricity, natural gas relative price of energy efficiency product income, borrowing costs population, technological change A mathematical model can be used to separate all of these ingredients and reveal their independent relationships to electricity use. The model can be likened to a spectrophotometer (or spectrometer, spectrograph, spectroscope, etc.) that decomposes and measures fundamental physical elements 14 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

15 Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer or, Marv's recipe for Stroganoff ENERGYit = β ENERGYit 1 + MARKETFACTORS ' it Γ + EEPROGRAMS ' it Θ + λ + ε i it 15 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

16 Model features and findings I took the 10 states with the largest reported cumulative annual residential sector energy savings from DSM programs from 1992 to These are: CA, FL, MA, NC, NY, OH, OR, TX, WA, WI I then estimated a fixed effect, weighted, cross section time series model in double-log form spanning the 26 year period 1978 to The dependent variable was PER CAPITA RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY SALES I found that controlling for all the other factors, DSM and MT programs are associated with a significant reduction in per capita use in these states 16 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

17 Dependent Variable: Per Capita Residential Electricity Sales Method: Panel EGLS (Cross-section weights) Cross-sections included: 10 Total panel (balanced) observations: 260 Linear estimation after one-step weighting matrix White diagonal standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-statistic Prob. Intercept Lagged Dependent Variable EL Price NG Price Per Capita Income HDD CDD Prime Lending Rate Technology Index Residential DSM Savings Residential Market Trans. Index Notice once again: the model implicitly controls for "free riders," "spillover," "snapback" and any other "net-to-gross" issues There are several ways to get at state-specific estimates using this model, or a similar one To get program-specific estimates I advocate the development of "Program Allocation Factors" (PAFs) 17 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

18 She's got a ticket to ride (and she don't care) It is wrong to accept defeat and conclude that "attribution" -- at any geographic or program level -- cannot be done at all, or cannot be done costeffectively. However, as of now very few parties are doing a good job of it because of the legacy of old impact evaluation work. Attribution is fundamentally a problem of "connectedness." Unfortunately, many evaluators view programs as isolated from other programs and markets, geographically isolated, and frozen in time. The best way to tackle "connectedness" is to broaden our sights by using: (a) different types of economic data (b) a wider range of temporal and spatial data (b) a wider range of research methods 18 ACEEE MT Symposium Monday, March 20, 2006

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